Elim72 Posted Thursday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:40 PM One thing I noticed that I haven't seen in years up here. The last time I seen so many lady bugs trying to get in was the 90s. It was usually stink bugs but this year it's lady bugs. Some of those 90s winters were nice in the snowfall department here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM 2 hours ago, Elim72 said: One thing I noticed that I haven't seen in years up here. The last time I seen so many lady bugs trying to get in was the 90s. It was usually stink bugs but this year it's lady bugs. Some of those 90s winters were nice in the snowfall department here. We still have spotted lantern flies fluttering around at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 04:34 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:34 AM WUSA 9 forecast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:19 AM Steve DiMartino's winter forecast. It's NY/NJ/PA centric, but his maps include part of this forum fwiw. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:19 AM 6 hours ago, bncho said: WUSA 9 forecast Been averaging 12-13” a winter since I moved back here including the 2022-23 rat. This prediction triples that, so I’d love to see it actually happen. I’m a tad more bearish but we only need one storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:22 AM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Been averaging 12-13” a winter since I moved back here including the 2022-23 rat. This prediction triples that, so I’d love to see it actually happen. I’m a tad more bearish but we only need one storm! That bodes well imby too. I'd take that in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elim72 Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Steve D is a good dude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted Friday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:14 PM I feel like we know what every winter forecast is going to be. Overall above average temps and precip. Snowfall predictions will come down to either keeping it in the single digits because of the above average temps, or calling your shot on 15”-20”+ because of a big one having just the right timing. Then there will be those that just take the “safe” route and go in-between those two options. The funny thing being that the people shouting that a shutout type of winter is in play, and the ones saying the big one is in play, don’t have much different winter outlooks. It’ll ultimately come down to luck with timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:41 PM Well we clear the very end of October with no strong coastal in time frame and let’s now hope we can do same 11/25-11/30 for favorable analog trend and current mildness also bodes well historically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Friday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:35 PM We are flirting with 1965 when a severe drought continued thru 1966. The + 1.8 DJF 65-66 El Nino did NOT break the 4 year drought. I simply report historical reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:35 PM Weatherbell has their winter forecast out. Slightly above normal snow for DC. We're in the +1F DFN for temp though it seems to be front weighted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted yesterday at 01:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:28 PM 13 hours ago, IronTy said: Weatherbell has their winter forecast out. Slightly above normal snow for DC. We're in the +1F DFN for temp though it seems to be front weighted. So, by inference that might imply the expectation of a somewhat back-loaded winter? (ETA: a +1 departure for the season actually sounds pretty amazing, relative to some of the +4 to +6 I've seen tossed around. +1 would indicate some good opportunities for solid events can occur; +4 or +6 implies shit the blinds, and "party" like it's 2022-23!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: So, by inference that might imply the expectation of a somewhat back-loaded winter? Yeah. I think it was just a preview of their winter forecast to premium members so they didn't break out month by month but it seemed JB was pretty clear that the numbers hinge on December being warmer. But he also indicated there's a chance for December to come in much colder and admitted it would blow their forecast if it did. Who knows, I guess I'll have to wait for the detailed forecast to come out to see what they really think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 hours ago, IronTy said: Yeah. I think it was just a preview of their winter forecast to premium members so they didn't break out month by month but it seemed JB was pretty clear that the numbers hinge on December being warmer. But he also indicated there's a chance for December to come in much colder and admitted it would blow their forecast if it did. Who knows, I guess I'll have to wait for the detailed forecast to come out to see what they really think. If JB was worried about a blown forecast, he shouldn't limit it to just December as the cause. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elim72 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago I have a feeling December could suprise everyone. We are in uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EC609 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago On 10/29/2026 at 11:34 PM, bncho said: WUSA 9 forecast Winchester averages more than Leesburg, IAD and Fairfax. Closer to 25. The area around Shawneeland in Frederick County Va averages up over 30 + at 2k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 4 hours ago, Elim72 said: I have a feeling December could suprise everyone. We are in uncharted territory. December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago November. Time to start looking for the first flakes. Everything in my garden is still alive, tomatoes still healthy lol. +QBO/East-based Nino runs warm for November. Usually that's because of a cold Stratosphere, but it looks like this Nov we have a warming, followed by the long range models strengthening SPV for December. Imo, the pattern associated with -PDO is currently displacing ENSO/N. Pacific pattern eastward - models have -150dm in the PNW In Nov which is not typical of El Nino. Here is today's CPC forecast for November Analog-wise, Nov departures for the CONUS have 57% correlation to DJFM (filtering out global warming). Without filtering global warming it's about 66%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 hours ago, Elim72 said: I have a feeling December could suprise everyone. We are in uncharted territory. It's like when you turn the heat to your house up to 90 degrees. It's never been at 90 before, it's uncharted territory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elim72 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr I disagree with the nerds. I think there will be more cold outbreaks. Yes it will warm up in between but I think there be plenty of cold near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elim72 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: November. Time to start looking for the first flakes. Everything in my garden is still alive, tomatoes still healthy lol. +QBO/East-based Nino runs warm for November. Usually that's because of a cold Stratosphere, but it looks like this Nov we have a warming, followed by the long range models strengthening SPV for December. Imo, the pattern associated with -PDO is currently displacing ENSO/N. Pacific pattern eastward - models have -150dm in the PNW In Nov which is not typical of El Nino. Here is today's CPC forecast for November Analog-wise, Nov departures for the CONUS have 57% correlation to DJFM (filtering out global warming). Without filtering global warming it's about 66%. Global cooling is the next cycle. Enjoy the warming while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr Strange how DC is part of VA now. New Virginia County? And that I live in Montgomery County B, east of Moco A. AI slop base map aside, I like your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Another can kick...winter just got an hour further away this morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98. Did you forget what happened in 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfr Couldn't agree more...well I guess I could, but that would be really weird. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: Strange how DC is part of VA now. New Virgina County? And that I live in Montgomery County B, east of Moco A. AI slop base map aside, I like your forecast. We’ve found an AI that’s better with not messing up maps so hopefully that won’t be a problem going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: Strange how DC is part of VA now. New Virgina County? And that I live in Montgomery County B, east of Moco A. AI slop base map aside, I like your forecast. More just to show the general idea snow maps and all will have the counties and everything right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 29 minutes ago Share Posted 29 minutes ago Winter thoughts https://www.facebook.com/share/1N3iXRz76y/?mibextid=wwXIfrGiven everything else I know about you I didn’t see you as an AI graphic guy haha. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! Feel like we all know the deal this winter at this point. 60” in one storm or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Given everything else I know about you I didn’t see you as an AI graphic guy haha. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! Feel like we all know the deal this winter at this point. 60” in one storm or bust We figured it was the best way to go based on our limited time and budget. As long as the forecast is good I think that’s what really matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now