Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If we're getting a minor warming soon, the PV will probably restrengthen for December and we'll torch. But after that, we may get another warming in time for some blocking in Jan/Feb. That would be our window if it pans out.

I mean December was an expected loss anyway. Hoping for the late January into February/March boom

[Benjamn3]

12 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean December was an expected loss anyway. Hoping for the late January into February/March boom

Hopefully that would set us up for the 6 week reload right around the holidays. 

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Hopefully that would set us up for the 6 week reload right around the holidays. 

That's the best case scenario. The worst case? well... 

I'll be in Quebec during the holidays. Even if it torches in the east, it'll still be cold enough there for snow.

[stormy]

You never know about the holidays!

60 years ago in 1966, Augusta had a high of 31 and low of 18 with 6 inches of snow.

61 years ago in 1965, we had a high of 62 and low of 46. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

You never know about the holidays!

60 years ago in 1966, Augusta had a high of 31 and low of 18 with 6 inches of snow.

61 years ago in 1965, we had a high of 62 and low of 46. 

There has always been high variability around xmas.  However, it's skewing more and more the wrong way.  

Prior to 2010 the median high in DC on December 25th was 42.

Since 2010 the median high is 51.  

From 1945 to 2009 DC had snow on the ground 13 times.  It has now been 16 years since there was snow recorded OTG on xmas.  

There is always variability, but within the variability is a trend.  December is the Winter month most affected by warming.  Both in Temps and Snowfall.  We are losing it as a winter month basically.  It is what it is.  

We have lost about 18% of our snowfall climo in the last 50 years and December accounts for most of that loss.  

[frd]

Seems we might have a + NAO October, I believe thats a good thing. 

 

[stormy]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There has always been high variability around xmas.  However, it's skewing more and more the wrong way.  

Prior to 2010 the median high in DC on December 25th was 42.

Since 2010 the median high is 51.  

From 1945 to 2009 DC had snow on the ground 13 times.  It has now been 16 years since there was snow recorded OTG on xmas.  

There is always variability, but within the variability is a trend.  December is the Winter month most affected by warming.  Both in Temps and Snowfall.  We are losing it as a winter month basically.  It is what it is.  

We have lost about 18% of our snowfall climo in the last 50 years and December accounts for most of that loss.  

The 1960'S was  a "wild and woolly" decade !!! 

3 Christmas Day snowstorms.   1962 6 inches,  1966  6",  1969  12" 

It hasn't happened since.

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, stormy said:

The 1960'S was  a "wild and woolly" decade !!! 

3 Christmas Day snowstorms.   1962 6 inches,  1966  6",  1969  12" 

It hasn't happened since.

Wow! 12" in 1969. We had 5" that ended as zr just south of BWI. But it was great nonetheless. I remember it well. (at my age, remembering 57 years ago is easy....it's 57 minutes ago that's the problem  )

[DMAC98]

I mainly track ENSO for its effects on tropical cyclone activity but I do have some surface-level knowledge (emphasis on "surface-level") on its correlation with NA winter synoptics. From what I gather 1997-98 seems to be a prime analog this year given the strength and flavor/orientation of the Niño which isn't promising (torch city with very little resulting snowfall as a result). I would also think the comparatively greater magnitude and eastward extent of this event may be cause for even more concern this time around? Because we're at record levels in both cases:

Hopefully I'm wrong and we do find a window or two where we are able to cash in within an established unfavorable pattern though. 

 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, DMAC98 said:

I mainly track ENSO for its effects on tropical cyclone activity but I do have some surface-level knowledge (emphasis on "surface-level") on its correlation with NA winter synoptics. From what I gather 1997-98 seems to be a prime analog this year given the strength and flavor/orientation of the Niño which isn't promising (torch city with very little resulting snowfall as a result). I would also think the comparatively greater magnitude and eastward extent of this event may be cause for even more concern this time around? Because we're at record levels in both cases:

Hopefully I'm wrong and we do find a window or two where we are able to cash in within an established unfavorable pattern though. 

 

82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1/15 or later imho.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is always variability, but within the variability is a trend.  December is the Winter month most affected by warming.  Both in Temps and Snowfall.  We are losing it as a winter month basically.  It is what it is.  

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1/15 or later imho.

Exactly. I pointed this out a couple weeks ago and got weenied for some reason...but it's true! I mean in any winter the prime window always starts around that time anyway.

[bncho]

7 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality. 

This is a great post. I'm currently reading about a book about the carbon cycle and global warming, so hopefully I'll be able to understand more about this topic!

[psuhoffman]

18 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality. 

100%

I commend your effort, but we've had this discussion before and the handful of people in here who need to hear that again I don't think are on a cognitive level capable of understanding it.  And before you come for my head, yes that makes me sound incredibly conceited, but the few of you I am talking about (and you know who you are) have given me absolutely no objective evidence to the contrary.  

[frd]

Interesting 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Interesting 

 

Not sure how much this is going to help us, I suppose it CAN snow in November but... its likely the impacts of this will be long gone by the time our best snow climo hits.  However, I'd be interested in seeing if this kind of event in October increases the chances of additional events later in the cold season.  

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

However, I'd be interested in seeing if this kind of event in October increases the chances of additional events later in the cold season.  

Yes, that is what I find most interesting are the possible implications for Jan 15 th to late Feb.  ie. blocking - AO, etc. 

[Weather Will]

Just a general comment.  Vibe in here is too negative.  There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation.  With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow.  It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast.  Relax and let's see what happens.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Just a general comment.  Vibe in here is too negative.  There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation.  With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow.  It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast.  Relax and let's see what happens.

Respectfully, sir...this is an all-time record niño with being the furthest east on record. Warm, warm, warm! Outside chance of getting something during prime window if we are even capable of getting it cold enough and timed well--but that's about it. I mean that's just the reality of what we're heading into--no sense trying to look for what might be different or whatever...outcome is kinda historically baked in to me.

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just a general comment.  Vibe in here is too negative.  There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation.  With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow.  It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast.  Relax and let's see what happens.

I'm pretty bad at "vibes", and I am not just saying this, I really truly suck at regulating my tone, part of my neurodivergence.  So it's possible I sometimes give off too much optimism or negativity than I intend by my delivery.  

So...statistically this is where I stand.  I think we have an elevated threat for a MECS/HECS level snowstorm this winter.  

For example historically Baltimore has a 7% chance of a 20" snowstorm in a winter season.  This year I would put that closer to 25-30%

Baltimore has about a 20% chance of a 12" snowstorm in any given winter season.  This year I would put that closer to 35-40%.  

The negative is I also think in the event we do not score one of those events...we have a significantly elevated chance of having a dreg less than 5" snowfall winter.  The reason for that is the extreme strength and eastward geographic bias of the current nino.  While we are likely to get a significant number of STJ wave opportunities it is also very possible it is simply too warm all winter.  

What the vibes for that should be I will leave up to everyone else since I apparently suffer from vibe blindness.  

[WxUSAF]

So we probably got that going for us fwiw. 

[WxUSAF]

Taking the HECS chance off the table for now, let’s look at the last 3 super ninos. 82-83 wasn’t too bad actually, over 12” outside the Feb 83 HECS for Baltimore. 97-98 was obviously a shutout more or less. 15-16 was about 6” outside Jan 16 HECS. With this one being stronger than all of them and more east-based (for now, I’d wag it tends towards more basin wide as the winter progresses), I’d probably only put my Baltimore area forecast at 2-6” outside a HECS chance? But obviously the chance for a HECS is well above normal. I’d even go as far to say that the odds of a strong phasing low taking a traditionally favorable snow track for us is VERY high. 97-98 had like 3 of those! But will there be cold air? So I agree with @psuhoffman that when you put that together you get something like 1 in 3 odds maybe? So do you weight that and take 0.33x18” + 4” or something as your forecast total? Kinda no since I actually think a total like 8-14” for the year is less likely than either 2-6” or 18-24” lol. So to do a CWG kinda thing is probably wag:

0-2” 20%
2-6” 40%
6-14” 10%
14-24” 20%
24”+ 10%

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure how much this is going to help us, I suppose it CAN snow in November but... its likely the impacts of this will be long gone by the time our best snow climo hits.  However, I'd be interested in seeing if this kind of event in October increases the chances of additional events later in the cold season.  

This is proged for the first few days of November, not that it makes a huge difference probably. 

[mitchnick]

Last 2 weeks of today's weeklies lining up with seasonal with the trough in/near the GOA and a distinct SE trough, very similar to the Euro seasonal I posted a couple of weeks ago. 

[TSSN+]

It better snow, that’s all I got to say lol 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It better snow, that’s all I got to say lol 

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol

[TSSN+]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol

If there is a storm on a weekend I just may. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

This is proged for the first few days of November, not that it makes a huge difference probably. 

Isn’t there a lag time of a few weeks from when the SSW peaks to when it potentially impacts our region?

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Isn’t there a lag time of a few weeks from when the SSW peaks to when it potentially impacts our region?

 

Yes. But I  saw some other stuff that suggests the early warming increases chances for later warming events. But we don't want to put all our eggs in the "stratosphere basket" by any means. Best for it to just enhance our chances than to be the sole/direct cause as they often don't workout so well as most know.