Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From what they're saying in the other thread though...is it even gonna be possible to get cold enough in JFM? 97-98 comparison to where the STJ was mentioned as an example of what can happen in an extreme event...I mean to my layman ears it's not sounding great.

Negative Nancy lol. Sure it can/could happen. But so could 1983 or 2016. You want more cold (and mostly dry) for your area? Root for more Ninas. I love 'em here lately. A strong to very strong Nino is very likely going to produce a mild winter overall, but with a juiced STJ and some favorable periods in the high latitudes to facilitate a week or 2 of cold, there is always the potential for a big east coast snowstorm.

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Negative Nancy lol. Sure it can/could happen. But so could 1983 or 2016. You want more cold (and mostly dry) for your area? Root for more Ninas. I love 'em here lately. A strong to very strong Nino is very likely going to produce a mild winter overall, but with a juiced STJ and some favorable periods in the high latitudes to facilitate a week or 2 of cold, there is always the potential for a big east coast snowstorm.

Go BIG or go home. I want the biggest WOOF ever......  ALEET  ALEET !!!!!    BECSS  !!

I will take my chances with the Nino,  because the cards will be on the table at times,  but will we get a winning hand between Jan 1 st and March ! st.   I hope so.  

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Go BIG or go home. I want the biggest WOOF ever......  ALEET  ALEET !!!!!    BECSS  !!

I will take my chances with the Nino,  because the cards will be on the table at times,  but will we get a winning hand between Jan 1 st and March ! st.   I hope so.  

Exactly. Nina's are annoying. So damn dry. Give me the moisture and I'll roll the dice.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Negative Nancy lol. Sure it can/could happen. But so could 1983 or 2016. You want more cold (and mostly dry) for your area? Root for more Ninas. I love 'em here lately. A strong to very strong Nino is very likely going to produce a mild winter overall, but with a juiced STJ and some favorable periods in the high latitudes to facilitate a week or 2 of cold, there is always the potential for a big east coast snowstorm.

The problem I have is this Nino is looking historically strong, which is by nature an extreme event like 97-98 (or stronger as some in the forum are predicting). I mean looking at the daily high temps for DJF...that year torched through and through with not one period of being cold enough to snow. At least the other dud super nino of 72-73 had a cold chance but we just got unlucky (glad I wasn't around for that southern blizzard). But with an historically strong event? Maaan I question if we even GET cold enough for snow.

In no universe would I root for a nina...they break your heart everytime, lol (though last year was about as good as a nina can get...late February hurt though!) And we're gonna get two more of those ninas after next winter anyway which is why a potential fail this winter is more frustrating.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Exactly. Nina's are annoying. So damn dry. Give me the moisture and I'll roll the dice.

Not mention they break your heart with the big storms that miss. You see what happened late February? It's gonna happen 99% of the time with a coastal in a nina. BUT thankfully we got a frickin' glacier and arctic cold to enjoy for over a month--that was pretty fun!

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not mention they break your heart with the big storms that miss. You see what happened late February? It's gonna happen 99% of the time with a coastal in a nina. BUT thankfully we got a frickin' glacier and arctic cold to enjoy for over a month--that was pretty fun!

Late February twice in a row! February 20, 2025 (the more infamous one) and February 22, 2026.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem I have is this Nino is looking historically strong, which is by nature an extreme event like 97-98 (or stronger as some in the forum are predicting). I mean looking at the daily high temps for DJF...that year torched through and through with not one period of being cold enough to snow. At least the other dud super nino of 72-73 had a cold chance but we just got unlucky (glad I wasn't around for that southern blizzard). But with an historically strong event? Maaan I question if we even GET cold enough for snow.

In no universe would I root for a nina...they break your heart everytime, lol (though last year was about as good as a nina can get...late February hurt though!) And we're gonna get two more of those ninas after next winter anyway which is why a potential fail this winter is more frustrating.

Ok Deb.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem I have is this Nino is looking historically strong, which is by nature an extreme event like 97-98 (or stronger as some in the forum are predicting). I mean looking at the daily high temps for DJF...that year torched through and through with not one period of being cold enough to snow. At least the other dud super nino of 72-73 had a cold chance but we just got unlucky (glad I wasn't around for that southern blizzard). But with an historically strong event? Maaan I question if we even GET cold enough for snow.

In no universe would I root for a nina...they break your heart everytime, lol (though last year was about as good as a nina can get...late February hurt though!) And we're gonna get two more of those ninas after next winter anyway which is why a potential fail this winter is more frustrating.

We could get a bunch of 'perfect track' rainstorms. The irony of your negative stance is that a strong El Nino is statistically more likely to give you what you want(and esp places NW) than the recent Nina winters- a KU storm.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We could get a bunch of 'perfect track' rainstorms. The irony of your negative stance is that a strong El Nino is statistically more likely to give you what you want(and esp places NW) than the recent Nina winters- a KU storm.

Yeah but not this strong though--it's historic. And potentially east-based. That's the part of it that worries me because to me historically strong=97-98 scenario. If it were anything else like moderate to strong, or modoki (I know that one is rare) I'd certainly like our chances much better.

I would relish being be HAPPILY wrong though and will wear all of it while I'm measuring in feet 

[IronTy]

RIP winter 2026-2027...we never even knew ya.  

 

Quick @Weather Will post up that CFS DJF prediction to steer us back toward the light.  Or somebody post up the latest JB tweet to give us hope.  

[Weather Will]

9 hours ago, IronTy said:

RIP winter 2026-2027...we never even knew ya.  

 

Quick @Weather Will post up that CFS DJF prediction to steer us back toward the light.  Or somebody post up the latest JB tweet to give us hope.  

WB CFS 30 day average for Dec-Jan.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm. 

[WEATHER53]

21 hours ago, CAPE said:

Negative Nancy lol. Sure it can/could happen. But so could 1983 or 2016. You want more cold (and mostly dry) for your area? Root for more Ninas. I love 'em here lately. A strong to very strong Nino is very likely going to produce a mild winter overall, but with a juiced STJ and some favorable periods in the high latitudes to facilitate a week or 2 of cold, there is always the potential for a big east coast snowstorm.

97-98 does show up as an analog for me but it’s vastly overwhelmed by more positive ones.  2010,11,12 had a lot of similarities to 2026 summer and spring.  I’ve got about 5 more also but gotta find my notes 

[DMAC98]

Stopping by to deliver the new August CanSIPS

 

(ok time to go back into hiding now, see y'all in December I guess)

[WxUSAF]

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke 

And there ya go...not sure how much that happened in 97-98, but gotta imagine it was a factor?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

97-98 had negative heights in Alaska. CANSIPS has +heights there. ECMWF I think is completely different, showing +EPO for the Winter. 

[CAPE]

11 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke 

Still seeing the colder than avg surface temps in the northern plains like the previous run. Looking at each month Feb is coldest. The EPO ridge is more amped in JFM and with the advertised TPV position there is a mechanism for cold air delivery from the Polar region, similar to last months edition. The latest CFS looks warmish for Dec and Jan but then quite cold for Feb and March, due to a strong west based -NAO and a weaker/better positioned Aleutian low. All just speculation at this point, but I would expect an overall mild winter with the possibility of timing some cold with a disturbance in the southern stream a time or 2.

[Weather Will]

I like not seeing a big SER linking with - NAO and showing a massive heat dome along the east coast....(WB latest seasonal CAnSIPs Jan.-Mar.)

[CAPE]

59 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I like not seeing a big SER linking with - NAO and showing a massive heat dome along the east coast....(WB latest seasonal CAnSIPs Jan.-Mar.)

That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month. 

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month. 

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea?

And yes, Chuck-

-PNA

[SnowGoose69]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.

December 2015 somehow had it but that was a product of a wild raging MJO through 3-4-5 if I recall right, December El Ninos do tend to be warm but its rarely due to an SER

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I like not seeing a big SER linking with - NAO and showing a massive heat dome along the east coast....(WB latest seasonal CAnSIPs Jan.-Mar.)

From what I know about Ninos it’s not common for there to be a -NAO and SER linkage in them.

Plus what @CAPE mentioned is very true—not really a -NAO signal as it’s smoothed out over 3 months.