Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[kdxken]

Not sure why folks were wishing for this. To each his own I guess.

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So all states would be skewed in the same manner pretty much right? How would that data be invalid for hypothesizing about a movement east of tornado Alley?

Yes, but normal waxing and waxing decadal cycles of tornado activity occur by default in the large picture.  For instance, there was a distinct minimum in annual totals inn the second half of the 1980s, and another in the mid 2010s.  We would really need another 30-40 years of high quality data IMHO o map out normal cyclic activity in tornado patterns.  It could be shifts W-E and then E-W as part of a larger cycle over many decades.

Also, all states are not created equal for symmetric tornado count changes.  Population change/distribution and visibility are two factors.  Also, seasonal trends.  For instance, there appears to be a shift for more tornadoes in the cool season w/ a decrease in the warm season.  This would tend to make tornadoes under-reported in the cool season b/c of less daylight.

Hence, uniform extrapolation over all areas/states can not be applies here.  There is still and increase net-net of course.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not sure why folks were wishing for this. To each his own I guess.

60s and rain after a high of 73F here.

Congrats on the 59s to the cars on blocks in the Berks though.

[ineedsnow]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing is modeled 

Did you look? It sure is

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Did you look? It sure is

Yup and there’s nothing but a few showers overnight / early morning . I’m sure you picked one model that shows different 

[bristolri_wx]

38 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not sure why folks were wishing for this. To each his own I guess.

On a non-holiday weekday when we need the rain, we can deal with the shitty temps for a day or two if that's what gets us some steady soaking precipitation.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup and there’s nothing but a few showers overnight / early morning . I’m sure you picked one model that shows different 

I’ll end up with an inch from this today so that works. Final total should be in the 1.0-1.2 range as this winds down with maybe another shower overnight .

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll end up with an inch from this today so that works. Final total should be in the 1.0-1.2 range as this winds down with maybe another shower overnight .

You could end up with more, but the showers seem to be of a more scattered nature over the next 24 hours, so it could be more of a hit and miss situation.  The HRRR shows 1 - 2" over next 18 hours, and it's been more accurate showing the QPF in short term than some of the other models.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

You could end up with more, but the showers seem to be of a more scattered nature over the next 24 hours, so it could be more of a hit and miss situation.  The HRRR shows 1 - 2" over next 18 hours, and it's been more accurate showing the QPF in short term than some of the other models.

HRRR has handled this terribly . This batch is about it . Should wind down shortly .An inch give or take should do it. Which is double what i thought 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

You could end up with more, but the showers seem to be of a more scattered nature over the next 24 hours, so it could be more of a hit and miss situation.  The HRRR shows 1 - 2" over next 18 hours, and it's been more accurate showing the QPF in short term than some of the other models.

He’s drunk. Hrrr has done well. I can’t wait to pour bleach on his lawn. 

[CoastalWx]

Guy bitched his way to a Jack. I’ll be lucky for a half inch with this batch. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Guy bitched his way to a Jack. I’ll be lucky for a half inch with this batch. 

Ha. He’s about to hit 1”

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s drunk. Hrrr has done well. I can’t wait to pour bleach on his lawn. 

It had route 2 north for days. It was awful . Put the cake and cookies away 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ha. He’s about to hit 1”

Hopefully an infestation of grubs and fungus. 

[ineedsnow]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup and there’s nothing but a few showers overnight / early morning . I’m sure you picked one model that shows different 

Congrats on a good soaking tonight and tomorrow 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nothing crazy here, but something.

 

.20

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Congrats on a good soaking tonight and tomorrow 

Yeah we had that this afternoon but it’s just about done now . Was a nice positive model bust for once 

[Baroclinic Zone]

It’s raining men, hallelujah!

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah we had that this afternoon but it’s just about done now . Was a nice positive model bust for once 

What planet are you on?

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully an infestation of grubs and fungus. 

9.5” since 4/1. Not bad. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What planet are you on?

Not sure what you’re talking about. Other than the globals. Hi res was all north and they busted pretty badly 

[WxWatcher007]

.75” so far. All in the last three hours.

 

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

9.5” since 4/1. Not bad. 

11.75” up at WXW2

[Damage In Tolland]

Ended up with .94.

Sun peeking out a bit 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure what you’re talking about. Other than the globals. Hi res was all north and they busted pretty badly 

They all had rain today. I’ve been watching. Had the best near you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

They all had rain today. I’ve been watching. Had the best near you.

Actually not one of them did . Not at 6z anyway . HREF had .50