Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not wet no . If it’s wet, it’s humid . If not it’s 82/55 type stuff 

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

Yes it does in summer. It would be a Dewey flow. You don’t get 50’s and rains fir days in late June

[Torch Tiger]

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

[kdxken]

Today's coyotes for anyone who is interested. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM. 

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

Were they looking at BN op runs on monitors?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

[weatherwiz]

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t just look at mapped out charts for temps. Look big picture, Climo , water in ground , source region , trough axis etc . If you look at everything the pattern next week looks like 78-86 for highs . Probably a day or two like today then warming 

 

[vortex95]

Thornton NH 852 pm 6/6.  Probable Scott spinner.  Video link and video stills attached.

I think there are two funnels!  One in the center of the video at the start, and then one off to the left at the end!

https://www.facebook.com/TheWizardline/videos/1009799924785673/

This looks like a classic brief spin-up tor on the S side of a comma head associated w/ a bow echo. These are more common than once thought, and sometimes you can get a bunch clustered from the comma head.
 

The cloud structure is not classic back edge of the storm w/ a clear wall cloud. This is b/c the comma head makes it more chaotic/messy from a visual standpoint. It is not raining that hard near the funnel as the visibility is good, and that would make sense given the lower echoes in the rear of the comma head.

The drone pix shows very localized tree damage.  Too small and sharp for a microburst.  Yes, the trees are all laying in one direction but that can be misleading.  The bow echo was moving E 40-50 mph, so a weak tor moving that fast can easily have it winds on one side of the circulation negated to a point no tree damage occurs, and the other side enhanced, so trees would all fall in the same direction.

 

And we know from observations in the field now, brief tornadoes like this are much more common than we once thought.  So many spotters, chasers, cameras, and now drones make detection much more likely.

 

This is about 65 mi from GYX WSR-88D and that would make it about 5000 ft at VEL1.  A little high to catch the best low-level rotation, so I bet there was better below 5000 ft.

I sent all this to WFO GYX.
 

[vortex95]

See attachment for PDS bliz and ice storms.  Goes into effect 10/1/26. 

I thought the NWS was trying to  *reduce* the number of types of watch/warning products b/c there were too many.  For instance, Blizzard Watch was removed several years ago.

I am not a fan of PDS b/c it diminishes those events not labeled such that can be just as impactful.  It's like Tornado Emergency.  First, all tornadoes are emergency situations that require immediate action.  Second, hearing "only" a tornado warning can be perceived as not as urgent to many.

So a PDS blizzard or ice storm, same thing.  And what exactly constitutes a PDS really?  It is not always due to the meteorological severity or hard numbers. If a large population is impacted, does that mean a PDS is warranted. It's like saying a smaller population is less important than a larger one.  Meteorological intensity and impact are two different things and not necessary correlated.

I can just see PDS being overused from factors that have nothing to w/ the wx event itself. 

And it gives an excuse for the media and all the hype masters out there to ratchet things up even more, which promotes warning apathy further.  The idea of PDS may look good on paper and in theory, but how it is handled in a practical sense in reality is an entirely different ballgame, and the way wx is handled these days in itself as if all inclement wx is "extreme," "unusual," and "not supposed to happen?"  The ordinary is turned into the extraordinary far too often.

What's next, a PDS for a hurricane landfall?  Dense fog?  Dust storm?    More warning is not necessary better.  There comes a point of diminishing returns.

pds.pdf

[Modfan2]

Nice natural AC, down to 49F 

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Forecast is for 49 tonight.. this week will be hot but I doubt we hit 90 here.. 7 to 10 days of heat then back to average for a bit

50.5F for my low

lets see what happens in a week.  

[dendrite]

Min 48.8°…sucks but it’s still early June.

Still looks cooler next week…maybe more like mild downs in SNE. EC tries to sneak a low under NNE which would make for a mank day. Keep the mean trough in the midwest and we’ll be okay most days. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah next week is a little cooler here for sure. It looked like the trough axis would set up over the Great Lakes but it’s sort of setting up in southeast Canada so we’ll have more of a infiltration of cooler and drier air, although I don’t think it’s gonna be really below normal unless that low on the euro is correct.

[CoastalWx]

At least we got a deep summer stretch right on into about Monday or so.

[CoastalWx]

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings  looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

[Cyclone-68]

To the three people who aren’t already aware, 73rd anniversary of the Worcester Tornado today 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings  looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

Was waiting for your comment on this! 

Its intriguing for sure. 

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we got a deep summer stretch right on into about Monday or so.

Hopefully its done for a bit after that.. ill be in Atlantic City next Tuesday through Friday.. hoping its not to hot

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was waiting for your comment on this! 

Its intriguing for sure. 

The trajectory is east, but then it gets cut south last minute because the flow is still kind of blocky. So I don’t have hopes east of like Worcester to eastern Connecticut. I guess we shall see.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully its done for a bit after that.. ill be in Atlantic City next Tuesday through Friday.. hoping its not to hot

We’ve only just begun 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Min 48.8°…sucks but it’s still early June.

Still looks cooler next week…maybe more like mild downs in SNE. EC tries to sneak a low under NNE which would make for a mank day. Keep the mean trough in the midwest and we’ll be okay most days. 

It inched warmer overall from what I'm seeing...  It's almost a complexion thing where it looks less aggressive then 24 hours ago. Just about unilaterally, all hydrostatic fields from Washington to Maine were like 2-10 dm taller in the general cinema throughout.  However, the 'geometry' or shape I suppose, still looks similar - some sort of a trough in the midwest/Lakes region... the depth of which proooobably shallows some as it nears in guidance. 

It's not very clear if that actually will be an agency for "cold" delivery here now that I look closer.  I agree that it's more "mild down-ish" for SNE... but this may end up being so for you guys, too.  For one, these cold amplitude deals ...the models have been overselling them since 2012 and the arrival of the version-upgrades-every-10-minutes era.  I think they've swapped beta testing/polishing for some other ambition.. .who knows.    

One aspect that is emerging... as we near the solstice, all three ens systems are rapidly retrograding said trough - not progressing into a +PNA/summer killer.    That numerical telecon has a strong -PNA emerging just beyond next week.  Starts falling around the 15th... by "Juneteenth", -2.5 SD.   This latter index state was more in the -1 and a quarter range 24 hours ago.  It's doubled. heh.  Again, all three...  GEPS/GEFS/EPS.   So taken fwiw, a gambler at the long lead table's putting their bucks down on the idea that what cooler signal does materialize for next week, it's likely transient.   

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings  looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

So SPC's gonna come around then ?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So SPC's gonna come around then ?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I mean I can only tell you what some models show. I feel they usually throw away the northeast outside day 1 and focus on the more current areas getting dangerous weather. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean I can only tell you what some models show. I feel they usually throw away the northeast outside day 1 and focus on the more current areas getting dangerous weather. 

yeah, there's definitely a kind of neg-head bias about signaling NE of the Maxon Dixie.  

Because we don't get 55 K foot tropopause stabbing nuclear updrafts with stove pipes carving canyons underneath, 'they're not worthy ...'

Kidding... but there's something like a wait-and-see thing up here?   I've seen more upgrades than planned scenarios - it's almost like that's their policy.

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize the NAM is a dead dog model ...

...are they going to continue running it in parallel for awhile after the fact?

Is there going to be gridded data sources from whatever meso madness they're going to, similar to FOUS? 

May be a Q/A for NWS personnel ... if there's anyone still actually working at NWS since we've gon' and made 'merica all great and all