Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not wet no . If it’s wet, it’s humid . If not it’s 82/55 type stuff 

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

Yes it does in summer. It would be a Dewey flow. You don’t get 50’s and rains fir days in late June

[Torch Tiger]

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

[kdxken]

Today's coyotes for anyone who is interested. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM. 

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

Were they looking at BN op runs on monitors?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

[weatherwiz]

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t just look at mapped out charts for temps. Look big picture, Climo , water in ground , source region , trough axis etc . If you look at everything the pattern next week looks like 78-86 for highs . Probably a day or two like today then warming 

 

[vortex95]

Thornton NH 852 pm 6/6.  Probable Scott spinner.  Video link and video stills attached.

I think there are two funnels!  One in the center of the video at the start, and then one off to the left at the end!

https://www.facebook.com/TheWizardline/videos/1009799924785673/

This looks like a classic brief spin-up tor on the S side of a comma head associated w/ a bow echo. These are more common than once thought, and sometimes you can get a bunch clustered from the comma head.
 

The cloud structure is not classic back edge of the storm w/ a clear wall cloud. This is b/c the comma head makes it more chaotic/messy from a visual standpoint. It is not raining that hard near the funnel as the visibility is good, and that would make sense given the lower echoes in the rear of the comma head.

The drone pix shows very localized tree damage.  Too small and sharp for a microburst.  Yes, the trees are all laying in one direction but that can be misleading.  The bow echo was moving E 40-50 mph, so a weak tor moving that fast can easily have it winds on one side of the circulation negated to a point no tree damage occurs, and the other side enhanced, so trees would all fall in the same direction.

 

And we know from observations in the field now, brief tornadoes like this are much more common than we once thought.  So many spotters, chasers, cameras, and now drones make detection much more likely.

 

This is about 65 mi from GYX WSR-88D and that would make it about 5000 ft at VEL1.  A little high to catch the best low-level rotation, so I bet there was better below 5000 ft.

I sent all this to WFO GYX.
 

[vortex95]

See attachment for PDS bliz and ice storms.  Goes into effect 10/1/26. 

I thought the NWS was trying to  *reduce* the number of types of watch/warning products b/c there were too many.  For instance, Blizzard Watch was removed several years ago.

I am not a fan of PDS b/c it diminishes those events not labeled such that can be just as impactful.  It's like Tornado Emergency.  First, all tornadoes are emergency situations that require immediate action.  Second, hearing "only" a tornado warning can be perceived as not as urgent to many.

So a PDS blizzard or ice storm, same thing.  And what exactly constitutes a PDS really?  It is not always due to the meteorological severity or hard numbers. If a large population is impacted, does that mean a PDS is warranted. It's like saying a smaller population is less important than a larger one.  Meteorological intensity and impact are two different things and not necessary correlated.

I can just see PDS being overused from factors that have nothing to w/ the wx event itself. 

And it gives an excuse for the media and all the hype masters out there to ratchet things up even more, which promotes warning apathy further.  The idea of PDS may look good on paper and in theory, but how it is handled in a practical sense in reality is an entirely different ballgame, and the way wx is handled these days in itself as if all inclement wx is "extreme," "unusual," and "not supposed to happen?"  The ordinary is turned into the extraordinary far too often.

What's next, a PDS for a hurricane landfall?  Dense fog?  Dust storm?    More warning is not necessary better.  There comes a point of diminishing returns.

pds.pdf

[Modfan2]

Nice natural AC, down to 49F 

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Forecast is for 49 tonight.. this week will be hot but I doubt we hit 90 here.. 7 to 10 days of heat then back to average for a bit

50.5F for my low

lets see what happens in a week.