Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not wet no . If it’s wet, it’s humid . If not it’s 82/55 type stuff 

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

wet doesn't mean it humid..  

Yes it does in summer. It would be a Dewey flow. You don’t get 50’s and rains fir days in late June

[Torch Tiger]

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

[kdxken]

Today's coyotes for anyone who is interested. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM. 

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Had to move two turtles across roads today. One was a big 'un snapper lol. Summer!

Were they looking at BN op runs on monitors?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

[weatherwiz]

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t just look at mapped out charts for temps. Look big picture, Climo , water in ground , source region , trough axis etc . If you look at everything the pattern next week looks like 78-86 for highs . Probably a day or two like today then warming