Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Modfan2]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

DPs low but it's hot... 89 ... that's about the cut-off where lower DP no longer saves...

Hot day

Late spring brush fire threat, especially after green up. 2 yesterday in Coventry and West Greenwich RI

[MegaMike]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully a ring of fire pattern soon

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully a ring of fire pattern soon

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah ensembles all have a hot pattern middle next week on with 90’s again 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again. 

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again. 

 

[mreaves]

9 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Wtf. This is getting annoying

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

It followed me to Omaha. 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

Agree in principle ... but, I'm noticing here about 30 MI into the interior we've flipped the BL, because we're doing WSW at more than just wobbling leaves.   When it's been like this in the past with these sun grown mixing depths, sometimes we get a late W wind burst through the city and Logan kinda cheats a high off the urban fart between 6 and 7.  May even be counter-intuitive but what's happening is that that the gradient, albeit weak, is mixing down when max heat gets to critical and the BL turns over.  

not every time but late highs are thing out there

[CT Valley Snowman]

88 so far for a high. 87 currently.  Hoping to hit 90.  

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

Beware that late afternoon bounce though. East Boston is already near 90. It won’t take much more of a southwest push or enhancement from the South Coast seabreeze to get it close to that temp. Logan‘s always tricky in these set ups cause they can get a late bounce or they stay really stubborn stuck at lower temperatures.

[Chrisrotary12]

Did I see right on the news this morning that Boston is running like -8” of rain this year?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

88 so far for a high. 87 currently.  Hoping to hit 90.  

Same here, high of 88° but lots of cloud debris now is probably going to ruin any shot at 90°.

[Typhoon Tip]

They may be about to flip.  The ESE is down to just 8 and their T is up to 82. 

[MegaMike]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beware that late afternoon bounce though. East Boston is already near 90. It won’t take much more of a southwest push or enhancement from the South Coast seabreeze to get it close to that temp. Logan‘s always tricky in these set ups cause they can get a late bounce or they stay really stubborn stuck at lower temperatures.

Winds are getting weaker and the temp is starting to increase. The timing was modeled pretty well by the HRRR, but the magnitude is likely off by a few degrees since a) HRRR==WRF (pretty observable negative bias) and b) HRRR has KBOS entirely over water.  

I just need the temp to stay below 88 and I do well  Give me another hour of dat' muted sea-breeze, and I'll feel more confident. 

 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Did I see right on the news this morning that Boston is running like -8” of rain this year?

They are always low on everything. That gauge is Sus.

[MegaMike]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They may be about to flip.  The ESE is down to just 8 and their T is up to 82. 

Winds out of the north now.

Probably no good for highs staying below 88. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Winds out of the north now.

Probably no good for highs staying below 88. 

the N is actually calm -

they're fighting though.  Temp bounced to 88 which is on par with downtown anyway, but they back to SE at 7 ...altho I doubt they gusted to 59 unless they picked up some jet wash.  ha!

  flip floppin

[dendrite]

BOS 88

[dendrite]

Warm one, but it is June

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BOS 88

Yeah they flipped hard...

SW gusting to 22

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

He certainly does...we all do

[vortex95]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are always low on everything. That gauge is Sus.

Yes, and ASOS is as well.  Recall it was noted that whatever falls in the ASOS gauge and melts as LEQ, can't be adjusted?  So the 37.9" at PVD in the Feb storm had only 1.78" LEQ.  That seems high the 21:1 ratio.  BOS is much worse. 17.1" and only .47" LEQ for that storm?

PVD -5", ORH -3.5", BDL -2.5" CON -2".  So the -7.5" at BOS does not fit.  And we are talking the first 5 months of the year where you do not have higher local differences from convection.

But the media doesn't care, they just take thing as face value and run w/ it.

[MegaMike]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah they flipped hard...

SW gusting to 22

+6 degrees within 5 minutes. 

Definitely didn't expect that. The first few observations looked suspicious too.

Good call, @CoastalWx

I guess I gotta' torch the sensor to collect on the over

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah ensembles all have a hot pattern middle next week on with 90’s again 

Which ensembles have 90’s next week?

[vortex95]

Sun could be interesting.  Ydy it acted more like a BDF and cool marine infested, but tdy not at all.  BDF in a classic sense occurs when it is anticyclonic NW flow here w/ high heights/thickness, and the only cool air is very shallow.  Not the case here at all.  It is cyclonic flow aloft w/ falling heights and a decent vort/shortwave moving in Sun aftn.  GFS/ECM show half-decent CAPE and w/ the cold 500 temps and dynamic support, could be good in some areas.   Not honkin' svr, but I bet good enough for WxWiz!

The front sagging just to S may actually help in this case.  Also, cells dropping N to S?  They tend to do well.

[dendrite]

BOS is always a gamble to bet on.

There was a wind error in there around the time the wind flipped though. I don’t think they gusted to 51kt. lol

[dendrite]

SW 13kt and back down to 86°. Maybe a pilot had the over on 88° 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

+6 degrees within 5 minutes. 

Definitely didn't expect that. The first few observations looked suspicious too.

Good call, @CoastalWx

I guess I gotta' torch the sensor to collect on the over

I’m in Weymouth sort of in the northern part of town a couple miles from the water. I had a pretty good southwest wind all day, usually if that’s the case and Logan Seabreeze they’ll bump after 4 o’clock many times it’s like between five and 6 o’clock.

[MegaMike]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BOS is always a gamble to bet on.

There was a wind error in there around the time the wind flipped though. I don’t think they gusted to 51kt. lol

Duplicate observations too. I claim foul play!

There were other 88 degree observations afterwards, and the DSM does have 88 at 14:59LST (after the random gusts to 51kt) so I'll take the 'L' on this one. 

If I mention AI again, ban me. Every time I question AI's reliability/efficacy/etc..., I get lit up lol