Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Modfan2]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

DPs low but it's hot... 89 ... that's about the cut-off where lower DP no longer saves...

Hot day

Late spring brush fire threat, especially after green up. 2 yesterday in Coventry and West Greenwich RI

[MegaMike]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully a ring of fire pattern soon

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully a ring of fire pattern soon

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah ensembles all have a hot pattern middle next week on with 90’s again 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again. 

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again. 

 

[mreaves]

9 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Wtf. This is getting annoying

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

It followed me to Omaha. 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

Agree in principle ... but, I'm noticing here about 30 MI into the interior we've flipped the BL, because we're doing WSW at more than just wobbling leaves.   When it's been like this in the past with these sun grown mixing depths, sometimes we get a late W wind burst through the city and Logan kinda cheats a high off the urban fart between 6 and 7.  May even be counter-intuitive but what's happening is that that the gradient, albeit weak, is mixing down when max heat gets to critical and the BL turns over.  

not every time but late highs are thing out there

[CT Valley Snowman]

88 so far for a high. 87 currently.  Hoping to hit 90.  

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi!

High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it.

Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning). 

 

Beware that late afternoon bounce though. East Boston is already near 90. It won’t take much more of a southwest push or enhancement from the South Coast seabreeze to get it close to that temp. Logan‘s always tricky in these set ups cause they can get a late bounce or they stay really stubborn stuck at lower temperatures.

[Chrisrotary12]

Did I see right on the news this morning that Boston is running like -8” of rain this year?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

88 so far for a high. 87 currently.  Hoping to hit 90.  

Same here, high of 88° but lots of cloud debris now is probably going to ruin any shot at 90°.

[Typhoon Tip]

They may be about to flip.  The ESE is down to just 8 and their T is up to 82. 

[MegaMike]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beware that late afternoon bounce though. East Boston is already near 90. It won’t take much more of a southwest push or enhancement from the South Coast seabreeze to get it close to that temp. Logan‘s always tricky in these set ups cause they can get a late bounce or they stay really stubborn stuck at lower temperatures.

Winds are getting weaker and the temp is starting to increase. The timing was modeled pretty well by the HRRR, but the magnitude is likely off by a few degrees since a) HRRR==WRF (pretty observable negative bias) and b) HRRR has KBOS entirely over water.  

I just need the temp to stay below 88 and I do well  Give me another hour of dat' muted sea-breeze, and I'll feel more confident. 

 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Did I see right on the news this morning that Boston is running like -8” of rain this year?

They are always low on everything. That gauge is Sus.

[MegaMike]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They may be about to flip.  The ESE is down to just 8 and their T is up to 82. 

Winds out of the north now.

Probably no good for highs staying below 88.