Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, frd said:

We are cooked 

 

All these forecasts showing large precip anomalies over us, I'm just not seeing it.  Why are they such shitty forecasts?   Are they hamstrung by having the follow model guidance?

[CAPE]

No changes in the drought status for the area with today's update. If some of the LR forecasts come to fruition there will probably be some parts of the area(probably SE) that will be in extreme drought category.

[CAPE]

@WxUSAF

Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward.

Maybe just delete the first part and make it  "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion".

[frd]

Just now, CAPE said:

@WxUSAF

Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward.

Maybe just delete the first part and make it  "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion".

F ing Omen title. Has brought nothing but bad luck, bad timing and zero rain.

 

 

 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No changes in the drought status for the area with today's update. If some of the LR forecasts come to fruition there will probably be some parts of the area(probably SE) that will be in extreme drought category.

Philly news tonight with voluntary restrictions in certain areas. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

F ing Omen title. Has brought nothing but bad luck, bad timing and zero rain.

 

 

 

He made the thread ahead of the last rain event, but there was already a Med/LR discussion thread. This one got pinned after that, which really didn't make sense as there was no hint of heavy rain going forward, and there still isnt.

[JenkinsJinkies]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@WxUSAF

Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward.

Maybe just delete the first part and make it  "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion".

I changed the tags the other day, maybe replace the first part of a variation of that. I would’ve done so if I had the ability to.

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

there was no hint of heavy rain going forward

There was a look on some of the reliable models of the storms ushering in a pattern change. It’s just that after the storm hit it got can kicked and then collapsed. I addressed that in a follow up thread.

[JakkelWx]

It'd be nice to get one of those tropical days where downpours with lightning form at like 12 PM and we get a few rounds of lightning for the rest of the day. Top it off with a distant lightning show after dark. maybe in july

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

It'd be nice to get one of those tropical days where downpours with lightning form at like 12 PM and we get a few rounds of lightning for the rest of the day. Top it off with a distant lightning show after dark. maybe in july

July has been a wet month since 2017

[WxUSAF]

It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days.

[JakkelWx]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days.

looks like we turn to a WAR-ish pattern at the end of next week. somewhat torchy with daily storm chances and the all-too-familiar humidity.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days.

I'll take it. June is important for crop formation. Even the afternoon storms and showers would at least keep things from sliding further into drought.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS. Next 7 days overall look pretty dry.  Third week of June has potential to be wetter.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS similar look to the GEFS.