Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'd be happy if we could get even a single impactful rain storm out if it.

Pretty sure that's a lock with what will be juiced stj. But it won't do us any snow favors unless we get lucky. And the worst part? There seems to be agreement amongst the posters that this event is gonna spawn la nina the next year. And with how the atmosphere LOVES to double-dip, we could be right back where we were the last two years (and 5 of the last 10). 

Will we ever see a snowstorm of 12" or more? It seems with this event that potential has been pushed back a couple more years (because again, ninas can't do it). I hope we cam get lucky this winter and time something off with a brief cold outbreak of some sort.

[Eskimo Joe]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Welp...sounds like a snowless torch and at least 1 nina the year after to me. Not sure that'll make any of us happy. And before anybody weenies me...refute why that setup is any good for snow. The super niño is locked in at this point, so that, at least, it IS happening. Only question appears to be how East-based...and this poster seems to believe that's the most likely. East based=torch, right?

 

Yea, historically east-based events are very unfavorable for snow.

[LordBaltimore]

On 6/28/2026 at 8:10 AM, kgottwald said:

Even the 88 figure in Downtown Baltimore seems excessive, but it's remotely plausible if the observation site is in the middle of the urban heat island, surrounded for miles on all sides by asphalt and brick buildings, with absolutely no green space.

The inner harbor site is in a microscopic 2m wide triangle surrounded by cement pavers and 30 ft from the water. It is somewhat representative of street level conditions downtown but really, official measurements should be taken at riverside park if you want accuracy

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, historically east-based events are very unfavorable for snow.

Are they good for nor easters? I’ve missed having big storms in general. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Are they good for nor easters? I’ve missed having big storms in general. 

Perfect track rainstorms

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Pretty sure that's a lock with what will be juiced stj. But it won't do us any snow favors unless we get lucky. And the worst part? There seems to be agreement amongst the posters that this event is gonna spawn la nina the next year. And with how the atmosphere LOVES to double-dip, we could be right back where we were the last two years (and 5 of the last 10). 

Will we ever see a snowstorm of 12" or more? It seems with this event that potential has been pushed back a couple more years (because again, ninas can't do it). I hope we cam get lucky this winter and time something off with a brief cold outbreak of some sort.

Maybe for you, but rain is never a lock here.  

Personally, I've given up on snow around here.   There hasn't been a 6" snowstorm in Stephens City since 2016.  I watched it sleet for hours this year at 11F.  Outside of some miraculous fluke, a true snowstorm here is a thing of the past. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Pretty sure that's a lock with what will be juiced stj. But it won't do us any snow favors unless we get lucky. And the worst part? There seems to be agreement amongst the posters that this event is gonna spawn la nina the next year. And with how the atmosphere LOVES to double-dip, we could be right back where we were the last two years (and 5 of the last 10). 

Will we ever see a snowstorm of 12" or more? It seems with this event that potential has been pushed back a couple more years (because again, ninas can't do it). I hope we cam get lucky this winter and time something off with a brief cold outbreak of some sort.

Oh they can, and have. Location! Mostly east of me but there have been plenty of 6-10" events here in Nina winters since 2017. I root for Ninas now. Sure there is always the chance of a ratter with a persistent SER but lately most have been on the cold side.  

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Oh they can, and have. Location! Mostly east of me but there have been plenty of 6-10" events here in Nina winters since 2017. I root for Ninas now. Sure there is always the chance of a ratter with a persistent SER but lately most have been on the cold side.  

Seems for my location Ninas have delivered the goods ( cold and snow )  the last 6 years versus Ninos which were either not coupled, not focused or just wishy washy, and whatever Tip said in the NE forum.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Oh they can, and have. Location! Mostly east of me but there have been plenty of 6-10" events here in Nina winters since 2017. I root for Ninas now. Sure there is always the chance of a ratter with a persistent SER but lately most have been on the cold side.  

Flow can be more NW -> SE in the cold part of Nina's, so threading the needle is possible on the coast. +ENSO tends to be more borderline in wintery events, favoring I-95 or NW, as a trough digs to our west with storms. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I also had a 7" and 11" storm last Winter. If it wasn't 14 degrees and sleet, the Jan storm could have been 20"+. Sometimes exact snowfall numbers are taken too literally regarding possibility and potential 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I also had a 7" and 11" storm last Winter. If it wasn't 14 degrees and sleet, the Jan storm could have been 20"+. Sometimes exact snowfall numbers are taken too literally regarding possibility and potential 

As far as I'm concerned, that storm didn't produce simply BECAUSE it was a nina. While there is statistically potential for 20"...the probability was not good. Why? Because NS...that's why. There will ALWAYS be something in the way, or developing too late. Happens way more in ninas than niños.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Oh they can, and have. Location! Mostly east of me but there have been plenty of 6-10" events here in Nina winters since 2017. I root for Ninas now. Sure there is always the chance of a ratter with a persistent SER but lately most have been on the cold side.  

Yeah well where people actually live (the corridor) they do not and have not! All those 6-10" events (except for last year) have been by the water or something, lol

This is why I'm already grumpy abkut next winter...because it's gonna make the two winters after it suck too. Super niños spawn la ninas, and we know they double dip. So potential torch and no snow, followed by two more winters of NS dominance and barely median snowfalls. So you're looking at 3 more years of suckage before we can try something else. Hey at least it'll be solar minimum for 29-30 (though that was no good last time but I'd like to try again).

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As far as I'm concerned, that storm didn't produce simply BECAUSE it was a nina. While there is statistically potential for 20"...the probability was not good. Why? Because NS...that's why. There will ALWAYS be something in the way, or developing too late. Happens way more in ninas than niños.

It's rare in niñas, though it's been 30 years since the last time it happened in a niña.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's rare in niñas, though it's been 30 years since the last time it happened in a niña.

And that was the only nina on record where it happened like that...that was like a once in a century kind of result for a nina! Folks are quick to point out "Well it almost happened in this year or that year" but that's the point: Why didn't it happen? NS too busy. Makes the odds that much lower, imo

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

that was like a once in a century kind of result for a nina!

With climate change once in a century has no meaning, for both torch and snow events.

[SnowenOutThere]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As far as I'm concerned, that storm didn't produce simply BECAUSE it was a nina. While there is statistically potential for 20"...the probability was not good. Why? Because NS...that's why. There will ALWAYS be something in the way, or developing too late. Happens way more in ninas than niños.

I disagree. I’ve been an outspoken voice that what happened last winter with that storm was a travesty worse than the Feb 20th debacle of 2024. At four to five days out 95/100 permutations gave us an all time snow storm from synoptic sets, we then managed to bungle into one of the five outcomes that did not. However, the Nina shouldn’t be solely blamed for this. The setup wasn’t normal for a large snowstorm. It wasn’t a nor Easter. It was a giant lobe of energy dumped out in California that phased once to get moving east, then two NS disturbances phased, then all of that energy phased in the middle of the country. One could argue that the Nina ruined it by adding those NS disturbances but we wouldn’t have had a storm without them! A week out it looked to be a southern slider that missed south! We needed that initial phase out west and then a partial phase in the Great Plains. You need all of that energy to get a big storm. You need the NS and southern stream together. It just managed to do everything too perfectly while our NA blocking got too weak. Not to mention two other blizzards happened last winter. I think everyone knows I’m PSU’s decibel who will happily proclaim our winters suck because of climate change, but that wasn’t last year, we were just unlucky as possible. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As far as I'm concerned, that storm didn't produce simply BECAUSE it was a nina. While there is statistically potential for 20"...the probability was not good. Why? Because NS...that's why. There will ALWAYS be something in the way, or developing too late. Happens way more in ninas than niños.

It was kind of rare to have that SE ridge with such a pattern over the Arctic and North Pacific

I think the +NAO was actually the reason - that big negative anomaly exceed -400dm south of Greenland, that has less to do with ENSO

[Weather Will]

Time to start a July thread! Latest weekly EPS for July.

[frd]

[frd]

Com

 

@commoditywx

 

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2072374917027205215

 

Analogs to current modeling favor northern to upper Western heat focus with wetter risks south to east: very El Niño.