IronTy Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM 1 hour ago, frd said: We are cooked All these forecasts showing large precip anomalies over us, I'm just not seeing it. Why are they such shitty forecasts? Are they hamstrung by having the follow model guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:31 PM No changes in the drought status for the area with today's update. If some of the LR forecasts come to fruition there will probably be some parts of the area(probably SE) that will be in extreme drought category. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:34 PM @WxUSAF Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward. Maybe just delete the first part and make it "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM Just now, CAPE said: @WxUSAF Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward. Maybe just delete the first part and make it "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion". F ing Omen title. Has brought nothing but bad luck, bad timing and zero rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:36 PM 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: No changes in the drought status for the area with today's update. If some of the LR forecasts come to fruition there will probably be some parts of the area(probably SE) that will be in extreme drought category. Philly news tonight with voluntary restrictions in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:40 PM 5 minutes ago, frd said: F ing Omen title. Has brought nothing but bad luck, bad timing and zero rain. He made the thread ahead of the last rain event, but there was already a Med/LR discussion thread. This one got pinned after that, which really didn't make sense as there was no hint of heavy rain going forward, and there still isnt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: @WxUSAF Please change the title of this thread. Its ridiculous- the antithesis of the reality of the situation going forward. Maybe just delete the first part and make it "June 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion". I changed the tags the other day, maybe replace the first part of a variation of that. I would’ve done so if I had the ability to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 06:01 PM 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: there was no hint of heavy rain going forward There was a look on some of the reliable models of the storms ushering in a pattern change. It’s just that after the storm hit it got can kicked and then collapsed. I addressed that in a follow up thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM It'd be nice to get one of those tropical days where downpours with lightning form at like 12 PM and we get a few rounds of lightning for the rest of the day. Top it off with a distant lightning show after dark. maybe in july 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: It'd be nice to get one of those tropical days where downpours with lightning form at like 12 PM and we get a few rounds of lightning for the rest of the day. Top it off with a distant lightning show after dark. maybe in july July has been a wet month since 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:40 PM It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted Thursday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:42 PM 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days. looks like we turn to a WAR-ish pattern at the end of next week. somewhat torchy with daily storm chances and the all-too-familiar humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not Ark-worthy, but there are some hints of a multiday shower/storm type pattern starting in 7-9 days. I'll take it. June is important for crop formation. Even the afternoon storms and showers would at least keep things from sliding further into drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:40 PM WB 18Z GEFS. Next 7 days overall look pretty dry. Third week of June has potential to be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM WB 18Z AI EPS similar look to the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:58 PM Looks like the humidity arrives next week and will be sticking around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:59 PM Seems like starting next Wednesday we at least get into a seasonable pattern of showers and storms. Wouldn’t really call it a wet pattern, but at least not a shutout. Of course it’s blobby precip season so there will be relative winners and losers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:30 PM 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seems like starting next Wednesday we at least get into a seasonable pattern of showers and storms. Wouldn’t really call it a wet pattern, but at least not a shutout. Of course it’s blobby precip season so there will be relative winners and losers. you rang? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:08 PM Maybe some strong thunderstorms if we get a good trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 10:00 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:00 AM What's going on with the Atlantic? Large scale BN anomalies all over. Do we think it's real cooling or just a function of the cooler air masses we've had cooling the very surface level but nothing else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Saturday at 11:13 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:13 AM 1 hour ago, IronTy said: What's going on with the Atlantic? Large scale BN anomalies all over. Do we think it's real cooling or just a function of the cooler air masses we've had cooling the very surface level but nothing else? Check if the thermohaline circulation has weakened recently. A similar occurrence in 2013 was caused by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:19 PM 3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Check if the thermohaline circulation has weakened recently. A similar occurrence in 2013 was caused by it. Funny cause as I was looking back at historical SSTs that's the year that came up for me as the latest closest analogue. Winter 2014 here we come. Where do you find actual data on the THC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM Gfs wants to end the drought in the extended outlook. Tropical moisture could try.. I know it's way out and not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM WB 12Z EPS. Some big totals with most of this falling in the later half of the period. Here's hoping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Huge dive in the SOI Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -14.14 -6.04 31 May 2026 1013.79 1014.20 -14.84 -13.58 -5.64 30 May 2026 1012.24 1014.15 -26.33 -13.17 -5.29 29 May 2026 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46 -12.63 -4.77 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Later this week, and next week appears to get more active as the general pattern begins to change. Increasing chances of storms every couple days once we get to this Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WB 12Z EURO. Dr. No is still alive and well the next two weeks for any drought busting rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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