Potential Sever Weather Outbreak 4/27/2026

[King James]

Soooo just a rainy day? Lolz

[pen_artist]

I feel like if there is really any chance at svr in NIL it would be late evening. 10 and 11z (haven't look back more) hint at at least thunderstoms with some rotation moving through the 9 PM -12 AM timeframe.

[TheNiño]

Moderate now for parts of Missouri and Illinois. I feel somewhat vindicated.

[Jackstraw]

On 4/25/2026 at 2:03 PM, TheNiño said:

Am I being a weenie thinking this has high risk potential around the STL to Springfield area? I know it’s still too early to tell but the models certainly aren’t backing down. 

Nah. Old chasing friend of mine was trying to talk me into going with him last night. We've been talking about this setup, the potential mess it could be most of the weekend. That's the area, IMO, I'd be IF I were chasing. I decided not to go. He left last night is in a hotel just S of Springfield. I'll be playing base camp for him lol. Do believe for any lone sups its gonna be highest chance in that area. Could be a lot of embedded sups and MCV spin ups but chasing those just sux. Think kind of like the last system, Tail End Charlies will be best isolated sup options when you get bows and shrimps like this setup could be full of. Like you said that area just got elevated to MOD so yeah, thats a good call IMO if your going. Anything isolated East into IL/IN is probably going to be close to or after dark. Another reason I'm not going. Good chance for a late night MCS/MCV rolling through here. I've got a donkey, 2 goats and 2 dogs. They get quite upset when there's big thunder dragons outside lol.

Good luck to anyone who dares and be safe. Idiots IPhones and storms don't mix lol. 

[A-L-E-K]

shame about missing the bangers, glad for more consolation prize rain

[sbnwx85]

The most exciting part of this event up here might be the wake low behind the rain this afternoon.

[Jackstraw]

Tor warning near Taylorville IL embedded in that very shrimpy looking bow in Central IL. Right on top of my friend over there. Said he hasn't even left the parking lot. He's going to head S/SW and get into the clearing out warm sector. Think that area is where the best potential for some explosive cap busters.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Game over for 72 north, but digging the rain 

[mob1]

34 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Game over for 72 north, but digging the rain 

New outlook nudged things a bit south 

[DaveNay]

Hello 60mph straight line winds!

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[Lurkess]

Tornado watch 160 just issued for my area.  I'm not real excited about this.  I'm homebound now, with no real Tornado shelter.  I can't believe I'm saying this because I love to watch nature do her thing, from afar of course.  Cleaned up after 2005 outbreak, so heartbreaking. It truly sucks getting old.  Cancer part 2.0 did this to me.

Here's to hoping that being surrounded by oil fields will spare us.  It has in the past.

[DaveNay]

I can rebuild

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[King James]

Hello 60mph straight line winds!

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Lol jts so dumb

[DaveNay]

Lol jts so dumb

I have no idea what that means.

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[mob1]

Based on current observations, the northern extent of true surfaced-based severe weather should extend roughly on a line from St Louis east/northeast ward. 

HRRR has the southern portion lit up with discrete cells before going linear. 

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, DaveNay said:

I can rebuild

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never forget

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Does the clearing now pushing from the eastern half of IA/NE MO into NW IL/SW WI mean anything or is it too little, too late? SPC pretty thoroughly chopped away our severe probabilities on the northern end with the 1630 update.

[Malacka11]

Still holding out hope for at least a GV line moving through before dark

[sbnwx85]

HRRR at least makes things worth keeping an eye on for the rest of us tonight.

[nvck]

Quote

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Nearshore and Open Waters from St Joseph to Pentwater MI...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 323 PM EDT, destructive winds behind an area of precipitation 
  will spread east across the waters. Winds will be from the east or 
  southeast, making it extremely difficult for small craft to return 
  to port if caught in these winds.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

Pretty aggressive wording on this SMW over Lake Michigan

[andyhb]

PDS tornado watch out for the area surrounding the MS/OH River confluence. 80/80 tornado probabilities.

[WestMichigan]

Nearly the entire SE corner of my county is without power.  I recorded a peak gust of 19MPH before the electricity went off.  Someone else must have had a much higher gust nearby because that would cause parts of 2 counties to lose power.

[TheNiño]

Milwaukee has 35,000 without power as well

[Lurkess]

3 hours ago, Lurkess said:

Tornado watch 160 just issued for my area.  I'm not real excited about this.  I'm homebound now, with no real Tornado shelter.  I can't believe I'm saying this because I love to watch nature do her thing, from afar of course.  Cleaned up after 2005 outbreak, so heartbreaking. It truly sucks getting old.  Cancer part 2.0 did this to me.

Here's to hoping that being surrounded by oil fields will spare us.  It has in the past.

Thank you for your emoji.  More often than not I'm ignored here, so that means a lot to me.  

I used to have a wx forum where we had a lot of fun.  I miss that.

SE Illinois looks to be bad.  SW Indiana as well.  The confluence of Wabash and Ohio rivers are my location. I've spent hundreds of hours watching the barges go by. The locks and dams are especially cool.  I'd be happier in a cooler, less unpredictable area though.

Now that we're in PDS, well I'm extremely worried. Be safe everyone.  That's sincere btw.

 

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

ILX has done a rare backwards local extension on Tornado Watch #160 to add 15 more counties to the watch--all the way back to Springfield and Jacksonville--and basically put all counties along and south of I-72 in a tornado watch for this evening.

This despite no sun appearing at all in the Springfield area and three rounds of severe storms and/or heavy rain since around 2-3am:
 

[Jackstraw]

14 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield, IL said:

ILX has done a rare backwards local extension on Tornado Watch #160 to add 15 more counties to the watch--all the way back to Springfield and Jacksonville--and basically put all counties along and south of I-72 in a tornado watch for this evening.

This despite no sun appearing at all in the Springfield area and three rounds of severe storms and/or heavy rain since around 2-3am:
 

Not sure why it lapsed. A secondary line through there was pretty well modeled.

[sbnwx85]

70 mph gust reported in South Bend with the wake low moving through.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Cc blip between Maroa and Clinton downstate 

[vortex]

Tornado warned cell near Dewitt, about 40 minutes ago.  Looking north.  Messy af.  

[mob1]

Really underwhelming so far, we'll see if this'll turn into a nocturnal event.