frd Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: Home brew next week? OMG please, please, please....... The surf at most locations is a freakin lake..... wave energy like 20 to 29 ..... boring........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 10:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 10:49 AM @WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 01:47 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:47 PM 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend??? It’s on the table. Euro AI has been leading the way but the other ensembles have a signal for something that pops off what’s likely a stalled front in the Gulf. Might get pulled up the coast, or if a trough isn’t there, steered west in the Gulf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 03:54 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:54 PM I like seeing the GDM (Google Deep Mind) ensembles increasingly bullish on some type of development. I'm intrigued. 3/10 for now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 06:35 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:35 PM Still pretty active 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM 5 hours ago, frd said: Wind-shear and African Dust have killed the Atlantic Tropical season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted Tuesday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:47 PM As insignificant as it is, it’s nice to finally see at least for the moment a few clouds surviving off the Africa coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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