April Banter 2026

[George BM]

May 21, 2026 3:56PM EDT

Tornadic supercell over Winchester, VA already responsible for at least two confirmed tornadoes in eastern WV continues to move just south of due east into a more favorable environment characterized by extreme instability (5000+ J/kg MLCAPE), strong effective SRH (300-450 m2/s2) and strong effective bulk-shear (60+kts). With low LCLs owing to surface temps around 90F with dewpoints around 80F, the environment is set for cyclical potentially strong to violent tornadoes as this supercell or any others that manage to form through the cap (warm-layer aloft) near the warm front move E to ESE. This an unusually dangerous situation for the Greater DC metro region as this is where the warm front is slowly lifting through from southwest to northeast. Take any tornado warnings or potential tornado emergencies issued this afternoon and evening especially seriously.

The greatest potential of any particularly intense tornadoes will be between now and about 8-9pm when the subtle shortwave responsible for this supercellular storm activity exits to the east.

Outside of the tornado threat any storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of dropping up to 4 inch diameter hail as well as producing significantly severe wind gusts (80+ mph) thanks to the steep 8+C MLLRs and fairly large downdraft CAPE available.

There will be a lull in severe activity by the late evening hours before another round of more widespread storms, possibly in the form of an MCS or to move in from the west as a result of a stronger shortwave moving around the crest of the ridge of high pressure draped over the southeastern US. Despite the late night/ pre-dawn timing of these storms (midnight-6am) there could still be a decent severe wind threat as well as a risk of severe hail and a couple tornadoes owing to MLCAPE still around 2500-3000+ J/kg, 50-60kt effective bulk-shear and still strong low-level shear (Effective SRH in excess of 250m2/s2).

Friday will introduce a still hot but less humid day with only a slight chance of isolated afternoon storms, mainly in the mountains.

[bncho]

Happy April Fools.

[WolfStock1]

Don't forget - Artemis II launches this evening!   First time mankind has been beyond Earth's orbit since 1974.

Where to watch:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/where-to-watch-artemis-ii-launch/

(in addition to NASA channel of course)