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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta love the northeast trough… while the rest of the country bakes.   Being in the 70s would be awesome.

IMG_8245.jpeg.9e4743efeb0b03b3d83f94f17409e0c6.jpeg

It's fallen right back into that "targeted" cold anomaly that festered the entire winter ... enabling straw men deniers two sheets away from being as smart as flat Earthers.  

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It seems about hours 72 to 96 removes the -NAO ridging in the ensemble means... but, maintains the behavior of the flow across the eastern mid latitude continent - as though it is still there.  The models are "sensing" some non-linear mechanics for -NAO, powerful enough to shape the linear ( observable wave distribution ) handling whether the block is there or not.

One consequence, the Euro and CMC 00z solutions. Hopefully they are wrong. Because they're attempting the dreaded rock-bottom pattern lock in using that. Particularly the CMC .. long about 156 hrs it takes tiny meso-beta scaled S/W and uses it to carve out a 3 contoured close low and when you loop it almost seems like a spontaneous manifestation with no real input.  Black hole just opens up in the perfect position to impose fantastic torture.  Hyperbole aside, that's that non-linearity being exposed.  But it doesn't have to be right because it's beyond 120 hours. 

Otherwise, move to 2nd residence and don't come back until some time deep into May

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2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

No frost here on the shoreline the last 2 nights. BDRs low was 35 yesterday and 33 this morning. 

That's frost.   Open fields and car tops typically begin frosting at 36, particularly on nights with high radiative proficiency.

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