2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheDreamTraveler]

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

[cardinalland]

This is the most Niño Niño that ever Niño’d.

[Windspeed]

I think the latest date ever recorded for the formation of a hurricane since maritime shipping logs occurred in 1941. That date is September 17th. That record is toast.

[MANDA]

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week.  Pretty amazing honestly.  We almost made it with Edouard.  A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it.  It was very close but no cigar.

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

What’s this on the 12Z UKMET? For the first time, it has a TC (TD) in the C Gulf late in the run with it moving slowly WNW and strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31

[WxWatcher007]

Worth noting that despite the lower odds, Invest 98L has seen an uptick in support from ensemble guidance. I've always thought this one had a chance in this region, and tonight we're seeing a flare up of convection near the center. We'll see if that continues. 

Currently it is meandering into a region of significantly lower shear and warmer SSTs. Just enough of a window for something to pop...

[Windspeed]

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

The off again, on again UKMET is now off again with a Gulf TC fwiw.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

 Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.

[Windspeed]

 Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.

It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks.

The MJO is heading toward favorable phases for TCG at this time of year, which Joe Bastardi has been appropriately emphasizing in his call for activity:

[olafminesaw]

Any idea what the record is for longest streak without a TC in the Atlantic in September?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Any idea what the record is for longest streak without a TC in the Atlantic in September?

I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16.

[The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]

[A-L-E-K]

 

[yotaman]

If you live in Fla, don't look at the GFS 12z. lol

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: again says no Gulf TC

[MANDA]

Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Orange. Lemon.

Feel like I'm watching a slot machine in Vegas.

[vortex95]

 

On 9/15/2026 at 8:22 AM, Windspeed said:

Though I am certain many that frequent here as tropical enthusiasts and mets are bored stiff, I am not. Several, including vortex95 have mentioned the importance of a season like this for data acquisition, trends, and analogs for study and future reference. We aren't just setting a record now. We are shattering it. Clearly, we're in rare territory. With the shear values at record levels across the basin (the exception being pockets of favorablility over the GOM and SE CONUS), we're going to have to consider the potential of development remaining null and void over the MDR and central Atlantic basin persisting into closure of the season. Normally, we get a hybrid system that transitions into a fully symmetrical TC somewhere during October and November. But if the upper-level environment remains status quo, that may not occur this year. Really, the only potential could come from a CAG system during late September and October, but it's going to take some luck. I still do think we get a hurricane in the GOM or WCARIB, but we've only got two months to see that to fruition. Clearly, whatever is transpiring with this record-breaking El Niño is overwhelming whatever has anchored the extended +AMO decadal cycle and shut that down, at least for now.

The fascinating thing about this season, and the last two for that matter, is that either unexpected factors has squashed the peak climo period (Aug 20-Sep 10) (2024/25) or an well-known factor (very strong El Nino) has resulted in record suppression overall (it is not just a new record for low ACE season-to-date and no HUs, it is beginning to get in the high-end territory or as @Windspeed said "shattered.".  This is non-trivial, to say the least.  Sure, it does not have the wham-bang of TCs non-stop or wicked intense, but that not really relevant to the actual hard met science of it all.

As I have mentioned I think, what suppresses TCs is just as important as what favors them, and everything in between.  The last 3 Atlantic seasons have aided in furthering the TC science from their oddities are to how the peak climo part of the season has been "taken out.".   I know it may not seem that way in general sense, but you can't let what is popular or not on social media or in the MSM skew the facts or contaminate the science.

What has occurred the last 3 seasons is significant/not just some isolated anomaly.  One could state or ponder, If going forward the MDR has these kind of issues more often or trends up, this has implications on many fronts, meteorological and otherwise.

One thing I like is that we are *still* seeing things we have not seen before, at least in the modern age when we have much better observations overall.  We are pushing the boundaries as to what is possible, which is a good thing b/c that expands the knowledge base.  For a wx weenie, this is pure gold IMHO, b/c it shows "the more you know, the more you realize you *don't* know" and "the  more you learn, the more you realize you have a *lot* to learn."  The atmosphere/Earth's system is among the best things out there that exemplifies these statements!

[vortex95]

Ugh.

 

[vortex95]

Updated for completed reanalysis 1971-75.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

14 new tropical/subtropical storms (11 upgraded from tropical depressions)

21 tropical depressions were removed

1 hurricane downgraded to a tropical storm (Dawn, 1972)

2 tropical storms upgraded to hurricanes (Delia, 1973; Amy, 1975)

2 hurricanes upgraded to major hurricanes (Ginger, 1971; Doria, 1975)

86 total systems now in HURDAT2 for 1971-1975, comprising over 3000 revisions to genesis, track, intensity, central pressure, landfall, status, and dissipation.

Note: The 21 TDs removed.  In the early years of NHC, the would literally call any mass of convection associated w/ a tropical wave a TD!  This practice ended by the later 1970s.

Some ppl (not here) have said, "revisionist history!."  No.  We take our technology and immense observation networks for granted now, but it wasn't always this way.  Also, our knowledge and understanding have increased tremendously for TCs in just the last 30 years alone, and we can apply this to historical seasons to get a better picture overall,.  Also, standard and practices on what we call a TC have changed (expanded) over time.  All this equates to a general underestimation of TC strength and numbers in the past, and the further you go back, the more we "missed."

And these reanalyses are done by many ppl, and changes go to a committee of TC experts before it gets finalized.  The amount of work that goes on here is amazing, given the shear amount of data to go over!

Also, it shows that even after the advent of the satellite era, TCs were still missed or not handled the best way.  I think they plan to go to 2000 w/ this reanalysis.  It has been going on for 25 years now starting w/ 1851 season.

Also, check out this:
https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2100729487038308516

List of changes:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1H5OwX26ay09jGO6mrXRS3qS5G8fVohne5KLpHYnuQUQ/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.4b2gybhe44qu