2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheDreamTraveler]

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

[cardinalland]

This is the most Niño Niño that ever Niño’d.

[Windspeed]

I think the latest date ever recorded for the formation of a hurricane since maritime shipping logs occurred in 1941. That date is September 17th. That record is toast.

[MANDA]

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week.  Pretty amazing honestly.  We almost made it with Edouard.  A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it.  It was very close but no cigar.

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

What’s this on the 12Z UKMET? For the first time, it has a TC (TD) in the C Gulf late in the run with it moving slowly WNW and strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31

[WxWatcher007]

Worth noting that despite the lower odds, Invest 98L has seen an uptick in support from ensemble guidance. I've always thought this one had a chance in this region, and tonight we're seeing a flare up of convection near the center. We'll see if that continues. 

Currently it is meandering into a region of significantly lower shear and warmer SSTs. Just enough of a window for something to pop...

[Windspeed]

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

The off again, on again UKMET is now off again with a Gulf TC fwiw.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

 Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.