2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheDreamTraveler]

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

[cardinalland]

This is the most Niño Niño that ever Niño’d.

[Windspeed]

I think the latest date ever recorded for the formation of a hurricane since maritime shipping logs occurred in 1941. That date is September 17th. That record is toast.

[MANDA]

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week.  Pretty amazing honestly.  We almost made it with Edouard.  A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it.  It was very close but no cigar.

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

What’s this on the 12Z UKMET? For the first time, it has a TC (TD) in the C Gulf late in the run with it moving slowly WNW and strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31