On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

One of the worst experiences in the world of sports lol....dumpy crappy old ballpark...

I'd love a repeat of that in the valley, winter of 1717

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah around sunset…23-00z or so.

Such a skunked airmass initially. Got up to run and it was 40 degrees at 4:45.. first run since early Jan with no hat ..while everyone else was in the 20’s. Got home and it had warmed to 42.3

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

I'd love a repeat of that in the valley, winter of 1717

Volume 1 of Early American Winters is a must read for that time period.

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Such a skunked airmass initially. Got up to run and it was 40 degrees at 4:45.. first run since early Jan with no hat ..while everyone else was in the 20’s. Got home and it had warmed to 42.3

That’s my issue with this event in CT. Lotta warmth to overcome.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Such a skunked airmass initially. Got up to run and it was 40 degrees at 4:45.. first run since early Jan with no hat ..while everyone else was in the 20’s. Got home and it had warmed to 42.3

What’s your temp now? Was just out at lunch..and truck was reading 36-37 here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

That’s my issue with this event in CT. Lotta warmth to overcome.

It’s warm everywhere now  It’s not really about that. It’s the dews. Worrying if we advect Enough for cooling 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What’s your temp now? Was just out at lunch..and truck was reading 36-37 here. 

39.3

[codfishsnowman]

Wasn't this event supposed to be in the 45-55 degree range earlier in the week? If so its cooled off considerably, probably not enough but still showing a sign of life to this winter.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s your temp now? Was just out at lunch..and truck was reading 36-37 here. 

Temp approached 42 here but is back down to 39.8

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

39.3

I’m just expecting rain here…think we just won’t cool enough. But who knows? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I’m just expecting rain here…think we just won’t cool enough. But who knows? 

If we waste the first four hours of precip cooling from 38 down to 31.. then it’s a bust for a lot of zr.. same deal for those farther northeast in snow zone . It kind of has a bust feeling early on, but who really knows ?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

35 and puke worthy in Simsbury at the moment. Fenway park in April... and May

Yeah, 37° and overcast in Greenfield.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, DomNH said:

Gut says like 3-5’’ of total cement but there’s definitely an argument for a higher end wet snow event. Might get shotgun blasts with GFS or HRRR solution. 

I look forward to clearing snow tomorrow morning with my head on a swivel as pine branches snap all around me. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still no Warning issued from BOX.  They are not impressed

[CT Rain]

Meh on this thing

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see dews dropping well into the 20s I think by mid-late afternoon  to feel more frozen with this one. This feels like one of those events where a ton of QPF is wasted on 33-36F rain. But we’ll see. 

This what I noticed Monday night into Tuesday...DPs were low, so I was like "uh-oh",,even though I didn't write on it.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we waste the first four hours of precip cooling from 38 down to 31.. then it’s a bust for a lot of zr.. same deal for those farther northeast in snow zone . It kind of has a bust feeling early on, but who really knows ?

Yup. Expecting just cold and wet…33 rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

KFIT's tD is 26F... that will help

[NoCORH4L]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

KFIT's tD is 26F... that will help

I think we'll snow bigly. Things cool off so fast after sunset this time of year. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

KFIT's tD is 26F... that will help

Looks like temps in your area are in the low to mid 40's currently and HRRR has you down to freezing at the surface by 5 PM. We'll see.   

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Looks like temps in your area are in the low to mid 40's currently and HRRR has you down to freezing at the surface by 5 PM. We'll see.   

Yeah... still pretty warm here.  I'm not buying the aggression of the HRRR

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still no Warning issued from BOX.  They are not impressed

They are probably going to stick with 1”-3”.  I mean, we’ll see at afternoon update.

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s no cold air until up into Central Maine . Any kind of advection and low dews is gonna take half the night 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

They are probably going to stick with 1”-3”.  I mean, we’ll see at afternoon update.

Could be.  This is rather tenuous... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could be.  This is rather tenuous... 

I think it has a shot because it will be night...if this were midday deal, forget it.

[dendrite]

You’re going to need a good, sustained push of CAA in the zr zone because of latent heat release. 3-5” in the max sn zone looks good to me…either side of an AFN-BVY line. If there’s a junk +1C layer aloft that could wreck havoc on the southern end of that if you’re battling junk precip for awhile.

[wx2fish]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it has a shot because it will be night...if this were midday deal, forget it.

I think were fine if we get decent rates. Euro op looked fairly flaccid, but AI increased qpf. 

 44 to 38 here with a ne breeze, same for lwm

[ORH_wxman]

These usually “bust” on the warmer side when you are waiting for cold air to advect in…sometimes they work out. But I’d want to see an acceleration of the better airmass and more importantly, I want to see big omega tonight. 

[wx2fish]

Euro op and AIFS are just about the coldest guidance at the sfc tonight. Euro op has definitely been cold biased at night lately, but i havent really noticed it with AIFS. Gonna be interesting to see how well it advects southwest. 

[dendrite]

Definitely getting an increase in ENE winds now despite similar sky conditions. Down to 44.7