Kmlwx Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Well said. I agree with layering the Maryland counties adjacent to the Potomac River on the watch in case upscale growth occurs, but it's going to be tough. Our only chance seems to be from those storm just NW of Martinsburg getting their act together. Was just going to post about that too. The other *possibility* is if the bowing line segment approaching Stephens City can surge a bit more east versus south east - it wouldn't take much trajectory change to get at least the southern half of MoCo in on the show. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Still a good bit of MLCIN over the DC/Baltimore area on mesoanalysis. DCAPE is not good NE of the Potomac essentially but ramps up quickly S/SW of there. DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 One hell of a supercell heading towards Orange. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Ping pong ball sized hail report just NW of Orange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Looks like I'll be sitting this one out. Southern PG and Alexandria look to have a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Good storm in Burke again. This one is training over me. Had two big CTG lightning strikes while hanging on the porch. First was less than 200 yards away. The other was about 1/4 mile away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 31 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Looks like I'll be sitting this one out. Southern PG and Alexandria look to have a good shot. With the damage in the southern half of PG, they could use to sit this one out. (I work Utility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 I missed everything to the north until last evening when I started missing everything to the sw. At least I got to see flases of distance lightning last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage. No wind damage is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 it’s like 82 degrees in the house and power has been out for 21 hours now… and we’re gonna make it to 24. third delay. u gotta be fucking kidding me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Is that stuff out west supposed to expand or trigger new storms? The trajectory sure looks like it's heading south and west of my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Is that stuff out west supposed to expand or trigger new storms? The trajectory sure looks like it's heading south and west of my location Guess that answers it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Let's fire up the severe thread for one last hurrah! SLGT for parts of the region tomorrow; MRGL for just about everyone else. Strong front approaches Friday evening with a good signal for a line of forced convection just ahead of it. Shear will be very strong, and some forecast soundings have a little bit of instability. The threat of a few damaging gusts seems legit. (I'm ignoring the 2% TOR for now.) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 54 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) Squeegee line instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Ah our old friend QLCS (from this morning AFD from LWX) Warm conditions return Friday as sunshine and southwest winds push highs back up to the low to mid 80s. Models continue to slow the arrival of our next cold front. The leading edge of the front, with its associated line of showers and thunderstorms, is now progged to cross the area Friday late afternoon to evening. The later arrival also allows for more instability to develop, which will act to fuel stronger thunderstorms. Sufficient shear should support an organized like of convection, with embedded severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin-up is certainly possible. SPC has added a Slight Risk across the northern Shenandoah Valley to northern MD, with a Marginal Risk covering the rest of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30% wind added for NE MD into SE NY on 1730z SPC OTLK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) The minimum is probably a line of heavy showers with gusts to 30-40 or so. The higher end is widespread gusts to 50 and some localized 60, with maybe a brief spinup or two. Probably at least a few scattered lightning strikes if we can get some heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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