yoda Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Tagged day 4... mentioned again on days 7 and 8 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday... The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states. A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Day 5/Monday... The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated. ...Day 6/Tuesday... The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question. ...Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday... The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. ..Mead.. 06/11/2026 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Any show today looks to be a late one, per the overnight CAMs. There does seem to be a modest consensus that a broken line will approach from the northwest around sunset, and the environment should support maintenance of the activity for several hours beyond peak heating. As for Friday, instability looks great, but shear is not good. Storm organization should be sufficient for some severe threat, but the current CAM consensus keeps all storms later Friday from DC to the south. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago SPC mesonalayis is pretty loaded at 10:30 am for us. Incredible surface CAPE, stouts LI's, and decent low level lapse rates. Only thing lacking is shear. If something fires up today it'll have a solid airmass to work with. Hmm...even some decent mid level lapse rates west of I-81. I wonder if we have a bit a remnant EML trying to crest the mountains? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesonalayis is pretty loaded at 10:30 am for us. Incredible surface CAPE, stouts LI's, and decent low level lapse rates. Only thing lacking is shear. If something fires up today it'll have a solid airmass to work with. Hmm...even some decent mid level lapse rates west of I-81. I wonder if we have a bit a remnant EML trying to crest the mountains? LWX did mention this too in their AFD On the mesoscale, will have to monitor the evolution of an MCV associated with severe early morning storms over IL/IN as it moves east toward the region late this afternoon, and how that interacts with the above mentioned lifting mechanisms (not to mention any residual outflow from the early morning PA MCS). It is plausible that these features enhance convective development by resulting in slightly higher forcing and perhaps some subtly enhanced mid-level flow. This would result in more widespread storms and an uptick in damaging wind potential locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX did mention this too in their AFD On the mesoscale, will have to monitor the evolution of an MCV associated with severe early morning storms over IL/IN as it moves east toward the region late this afternoon, and how that interacts with the above mentioned lifting mechanisms (not to mention any residual outflow from the early morning PA MCS). It is plausible that these features enhance convective development by resulting in slightly higher forcing and perhaps some subtly enhanced mid-level flow. This would result in more widespread storms and an uptick in damaging wind potential locally. Probably why the 30% wind was added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago The HRRR which had looked impressive for tomorrow afternoon no longer does with the 12z run - unless you are south of DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago LI's of -9, solid low level lapse rates, and healthy CAPE. If only we had 30-40 kts of shear, we'd be cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Mesoscale Discussion 1087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...eastern Ohio...western Maryland...north-central Virginia...and much of West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111627Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the region through early afternoon. The main risk will be severe wind gusts, and perhaps some hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted to cover these threats. DISCUSSION...Amidst a relatively zonal (if not slightly ridged) upper-air pattern, a subtle impulse is noted in water vapor imagery over western Lake Erie and central OH as of 1600z. Associated mesoscale ascent is contributing to increasing mid-level cloudiness in the area. Closer to the surface, diurnal heating and warm, moist advection with southwesterly surface flow is driving temperatures and dewpoints into the low-/mid- 80s and 70s F, respectively. The 12z PIT (Pittsburgh, PA) sounding showed steeper lapse rates around 1-3 km AGL (up to around 7 C/km) that decrease with height, and bulk shear around 20-25 kts. Over the next couple of hours, this modest westerly shear should persist as the mid-level impulse moves through. Associated forcing and diurnal destabilization should yield scattered thunderstorm development through the early afternoon. Relatively large CAPE values (around 2000+ J/kg) will support some downbursts/severe wind gusts with any stronger cores or merging outflows. The moist environment and weaker-shear regime should temper the hail threat, but some hail cannot be ruled out. ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesonalayis is pretty loaded at 10:30 am for us. Incredible surface CAPE, stouts LI's, and decent low level lapse rates. Only thing lacking is shear. If something fires up today it'll have a solid airmass to work with. Hmm...even some decent mid level lapse rates west of I-81. I wonder if we have a bit a remnant EML trying to crest the mountains? Still seem to have a bit of a lee trough if I'm not mistaken as well. I guess we're just missing shear and a forcing mechanism. Storms seem to be popping out near Pittsburgh as well. Quick question, and I know its not fully understood, but what conditions should we look for to get prolific lightning producers? Since the storms are coming in during the night I might try to get to do some lightning photography if I can assuming they hold together as the latest NAM suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Still seem to have a bit of a lee trough if I'm not mistaken as well. I guess we're just missing shear and a forcing mechanism. Storms seem to be popping out near Pittsburgh as well. Quick question, and I know its not fully understood, but what conditions should we look for to get prolific lightning producers? Since the storms are coming in during the night I might try to get to do some lightning photography if I can assuming they hold together as the latest NAM suggests. Around here, storms in high PW environments like today are generally more effective at cranking out the CGs. As you note, though, questions about the evolution of storms this evening remain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Some impressive wind signatures on those storms near Pittsburgh. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 70 mph reading or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Mesoscale Discussion 1091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and southwestern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111902Z - 112100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development recently. As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore, a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation. Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail. Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290 40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Pretty incredible storms near Pittsburgh. Radar showing 60-65kt winds about 1,000 foot off the surface just north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Pretty incredible storms near Pittsburgh. Radar showing 60-65kt winds about 1,000 foot off the surface just north of the city. Impressive storms indeed. Just not very well-timed for us. Hoping that the line well to our west can maintain itself in some form into our area, but the CAMs don't love that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, high risk said: Impressive storms indeed. Just not very well-timed for us. Hoping that the line well to our west can maintain itself in some form into our area, but the CAMs don't love that idea. Yea I'm not confident this survives into the metros either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Watch box coming out from DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago That cell approaching Garrett County looks legit. Little notch and everything else to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I'm not confident this survives into the metros either. Curious as to why, meteorologically, they would not survive? From my very very novice observations, the ingredients seem to be present to keep fueling them. I would love to know what the pros and the models are seeing that could cause them to die out. Thanks for broadening my knowledge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MDphotog said: Curious as to why, meteorologically, they would not survive? From my very very novice observations, the ingredients seem to be present to keep fueling them. I would love to know what the pros and the models are seeing that could cause them to die out. Thanks for broadening my knowledge. The timing may be after daytime heating is subsiding - it's possible that instability could become more elevated versus surface based is my assumption. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago so far the line of storms coming out of WV and western MD seems to be holding together pretty well - wondering what it will do when it comes over the mountains and hits the pea soup air over us right now. If it keeps moving quickly it'll hit before we completely lose sunlight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Watch coming shortly for Eastern Shore https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1096.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Which presumably means SPC expects that line to keep going. Lets goooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago I can see some gust front/outflow boundaries pushing out ahead of that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago Nice 4k cape bullseye for me https://twitter.com/miketfox5/status/2065198212349063610?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago Warned storm up here in Greencastle right now. Nice wind and rain. Little lackluster on the lightning. Hope my friends to the east get in on the action as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 718 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Western Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Culpeper County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... East central Madison County in northwestern Virginia... The western City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Eastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 716 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles west of Culpeper to near Delaplane to near Boonsboro to Greencastle, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency Management has reported many instances of trees down with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Centreville, Frederick, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Reston, Leesburg, Hagerstown, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Culpeper, Vienna, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Warrenton, and Thurmont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago Rather pronounced gust front from essentially the PA/MD line down to Middleburg, VA. Wonder if this ignites a fresh line or signals the end of the northern section of the storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 3 minutes ago Share Posted 3 minutes ago The mega warning has struck the area... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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