2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

SPC basically said C MD on south to the piedmonts will be upgraded a level 4 risk. 

You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. 

[WxWatcher007]

This one…has legs?

[Nomz]

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. 

The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way. 

[09-10 analogy]

45 minutes ago, Nomz said:

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally.

[yoda]

22 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally.

There was a high risk that day in NC... mod risk was south of the LWX CWA looks like

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416

 

[Nomz]

Just now, yoda said:

There was no high risk that day

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416

 

[yoda]

You beat me to my edit lol.  I only went by the main page which showed mdt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Discussion leads with mentioning potential future upgrade to MOD risk for SC to MD

Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death.

Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol

Afternoon, IMO. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon, IMO. 

Downgrade to marginal lol

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon, IMO. 

I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Downgrade to marginal lol

That's for the Day 1 midday update when we're socked in with fog and still in the 40s.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update.  

Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45

We will see new tiers of percentages. Remember they now have even higher percentages for wind to account for those days when it's widespread and almost certain - but the max intensity is like 58-65mph. 

I think 60% wind outlooks will become a lot more common with this new outlook strategy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

[Nomz]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

Euro leads the way even in summer 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

Need it to slow down enough to get the midnight snowfall. ATP we're just running back Thursday 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Imgoinhungry]

I think some counties may release early on monday? Looks legit and dont think theyd want buses on the roads when that line comes through. Guess we will need to see most likely timing on tomorrow’s model runs.


.

[coastal front]

Considering the high end potential and anomalous setup I would think this threat alone deserves a thread. It would make it much easier to locate this threat if anyone wanted to read up on it years down the road as I’m sure some of us do for some of our biggest snow storms.

[Kmlwx]

14 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Considering the high end potential and anomalous setup I would think this threat alone deserves a thread. It would make it much easier to locate this threat if anyone wanted to read up on it years down the road as I’m sure some of us do for some of our biggest snow storms.

Let's wait and see how things look tomorrow. Again - we have traditionally (at least since the past few years) kept things mostly contained within this thread. 

If there is no reduction in the threat level tomorrow afternoon or evening - perhaps we can do a shorter term obs thread/damage report thread. 

While the potential for a high end event is definitely there - you'd be crazy to assume we are guaranteed a high end event. There are too many failure methods with Mid-Atlantic severe. Would be silly to have a thread that ends up being for a 50-60mph line of gusty storms. 

We've seen many events look robust at day 2 to fizzle the day of - heck even some day 1 big dog potentials have fizzled. 

[Nomz]

How about making a new thread if a moderate gets issued?

[Kmlwx]

@mappy - Do you still have you mod powers? If I bump this event to a standalone thread after the afternoon day 2 outlook tomorrow can you pin it? Or I guess @WxUSAF is a mod too right? 

[WxUSAF]

That works 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@mappy - Do you still have you mod powers? If I bump this event to a standalone thread after the afternoon day 2 outlook tomorrow can you pin it? Or I guess @WxUSAF is a mod too right? 

Yea for better or worse, if we go D2 MOD it's probably best to make a thread. We only average a mod risk once every couple of years.

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea for better or worse, if we go D2 MOD it's probably best to make a thread. We only average a mod risk once every couple of years.

We do seem to go on "runs" at times. 2008 and 2012 come to mind. Also I still can't believe that College Park in 2001 and La Plata in 2002 were less than 8 months apart. 

[Kmlwx]

Unrelated - but has anyone else been having serious issues loading the SPC Events Archive pages? Eventually they load - but stuff is missing - and sometimes it just throws an error on the left navigation area entirely. 

[coastal front]

28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Let's wait and see how things look tomorrow. Again - we have traditionally (at least since the past few years) kept things mostly contained within this thread. 

If there is no reduction in the threat level tomorrow afternoon or evening - perhaps we can do a shorter term obs thread/damage report thread. 

While the potential for a high end event is definitely there - you'd be crazy to assume we are guaranteed a high end event. There are too many failure methods with Mid-Atlantic severe. Would be silly to have a thread that ends up being for a 50-60mph line of gusty storms. 

We've seen many events look robust at day 2 to fizzle the day of - heck even some day 1 big dog potentials have fizzled. 

I think the value of a thread is to analyze how tends, model runs, increasing/decreasing threat levels and NWS discussions evolved in the days leading up to the event. Regardless if the top end potential verifies it would make it easier to reflect on how a very rare long lead/ high prob severe threat unfolded day by day for future reference. Most on this board will remember a day 4 30% severe prob over an anafrontal coating that had a thread earlier this week lol.