Kmlwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 10 minutes ago, canderson said: SPC basically said C MD on south to the piedmonts will be upgraded a level 4 risk. You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This one…has legs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 45 minutes ago, Nomz said: https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255 Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 22 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally. There was a high risk that day in NC... mod risk was south of the LWX CWA looks like https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, yoda said: There was no high risk that day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago You beat me to my edit lol. I only went by the main page which showed mdt https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Discussion leads with mentioning potential future upgrade to MOD risk for SC to MD Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death. Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol Afternoon, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Afternoon, IMO. Downgrade to marginal lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Afternoon, IMO. I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Downgrade to marginal lol That's for the Day 1 midday update when we're socked in with fog and still in the 40s. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update. Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45 We will see new tiers of percentages. Remember they now have even higher percentages for wind to account for those days when it's widespread and almost certain - but the max intensity is like 58-65mph. I think 60% wind outlooks will become a lot more common with this new outlook strategy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now. Euro leads the way even in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 32 minutes ago Share Posted 32 minutes ago 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now. Need it to slow down enough to get the midnight snowfall. ATP we're just running back Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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