2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

SPC basically said C MD on south to the piedmonts will be upgraded a level 4 risk. 

You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. 

[WxWatcher007]

This one…has legs?

[Nomz]

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You mean in the discussion or did you hear something more specific? I didn't read it that way - it sounded more like they will continue to watch guidance and see what instability looks like. 

The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way. 

[09-10 analogy]

45 minutes ago, Nomz said:

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally.

[yoda]

22 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Yeah he cites the mid-April 2011 NC outbreak, which tends to get overlooked because of what happened later in that month, but it was substantial. I'm pretty sure we got at least TOR watches in the DC area, and of course there was a HIGH risk in NC. I think we were MOD locally.

There was a high risk that day in NC... mod risk was south of the LWX CWA looks like

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416

 

[Nomz]

Just now, yoda said:

There was no high risk that day

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416

 

[yoda]

You beat me to my edit lol.  I only went by the main page which showed mdt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Discussion leads with mentioning potential future upgrade to MOD risk for SC to MD

Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea were probably going to get a 2 MOD. Classic kiss of death.

Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol

Afternoon, IMO. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon, IMO. 

Downgrade to marginal lol

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Afternoon, IMO. 

I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Downgrade to marginal lol

That's for the Day 1 midday update when we're socked in with fog and still in the 40s.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update.  

Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45

We will see new tiers of percentages. Remember they now have even higher percentages for wind to account for those days when it's widespread and almost certain - but the max intensity is like 58-65mph. 

I think 60% wind outlooks will become a lot more common with this new outlook strategy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

[Nomz]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

Euro leads the way even in summer 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS, RAP, and NAM slow the front down a bit and push it through during peak heating now.

Need it to slow down enough to get the midnight snowfall. ATP we're just running back Thursday