2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

So is Matthew Cappucci

https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032441555785539939

Cappucci and his team there ideally would know better that it's a Day 4 outlook and that it doesn't correspond to a risk level at that range... but yeah. I wouldn't be shocked to see some school impacts Monday given a four day warning timeline is pretty big for a severe event.

[Kmlwx]

Not a fan of Cappucci in general but yeah seems many of the folks on social media are buzzing about this. I remain reserved but it definitely has some bite potential. 

[Nomz]

I think impacts will likely be closer to rush hour for our sub. Regardless, we're a tiny bit of instability away from a truly big time event. Have a feeling Carolinas will go big, however. 

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EF1 confirmed for western HoCo from Wednesday!!

My friend in Glenwood has video of a tree falling during that storm. Winds didn’t look crazy so I thought it was more of a downburst, but def part of that same line.

[Nomz]

Should we have a separate (pinned) thread for this event, since it appears to be the real deal?

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Should we have a separate (pinned) thread for this event, since it appears to be the real deal?

We haven't done that in several years I believe. I think it can stay here for the time being. Or we can just stay here in general. It's up to the mods. We tend to treat severe thunderstorm events differently than winter weather. 

Also it tends to be much easier to keep track of things and these severe threads don't get out of hand like the winter weather ones do. 

Main reason for separating winter threads is because of how much junk clogs them up within minutes. 

[andyhb]

12z NAM was an outbreak of severe storms across the SE into the Mid Atlantic Sunday evening through Monday. There is a very large area of high shear and sufficient CAPE overlap showing up here.

[Eskimo Joe]

23 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Should we have a separate (pinned) thread for this event, since it appears to be the real deal?

I vote we wait until Sunday PM.

[Nomz]

 

[Nomz]

https://twitter.com/Drewshearer444/status/2032528249914372367

Another discussion from a guy I really like

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

https://twitter.com/Drewshearer444/status/2032528249914372367

Another discussion from a guy I really like

Andrew is quite conservative. To see him honking like this a couple days out is interesting.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Andrew is quite conservative. To see him honking like this a couple days out is interesting.

Agreed. Although at this point it looks mostly south of our sub for really significant tornado threats, it wouldn't take much to put Richmond or even DC under the gun. Makes sense; really potent jet ejecting at over 50kts translationally into a relatively large OWS with >60s dews is always a recipe to go big time.

[Kmlwx]

That is a good write up - and VERY bullish...wow

[yoda]

Um ok then

https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032516682770485733

https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/2032516337373712714

 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Um ok then

https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032516682770485733

https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/2032516337373712714

If things go out way this could go MOD Risk for tor/wind. There's a legit high end potential here. Always good to see a strong jet streak coincide with a trough trying to negative tilt.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Is that new? the disco looks the same

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Is that new? the disco looks the same

The image yes

 

[yoda]

I don't remember SPC ever updating a Day 4-8 disco before? @high risk @andyhb

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Updated discussion for D4...
   The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a
   deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move
   eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by
   Tuesday morning.  Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of
   the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA.  The warm sector,
   characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand
   northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as
   far north as PA.  Though clouds could limit downstream surface
   heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for
   ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as
   well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce
   relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.  

[Nomz]

Oh I never realized they did d4-d8 updates

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Oh I never realized they did d4-d8 updates

They don't... unless absolutely necessary 

[yoda]

LWX afternoon AFD 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will arrive Monday,
bringing strong winds and the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

The Mid Atlantic should be in the warm sector of a powerful low
pressure system over the Great Lakes on Monday. A deep upper trough
pushing east of the Mississippi Valley will be taking on a negative
tilt. Winds throughout the atmosphere will be very strong, along
with notable low level wind shear (though more speed than
direction). Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s and modest mid
level lapse rates will limit instability but there should still be
enough to support convection. The thermodynamic profile could be one
of the primary factors into just how significant the severe weather
is. There is some threat for some leading cellular development in
the warm sector which could pose a wind and tornado risk. Then, a
squall line is likely to develop ahead of the sharp cold front.
Damaging winds, some potentially significant, will be a threat with
the squall line. A QLCS tornado threat could also be present,
although the shear vectors will be more parallel to the line vs. the
more favorable perpendicular. Seasonally high precipitable water
will also result in heavy rain, although storms will be moving
quickly. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but the most favorable
conditions combined with afternoon/early evening timing are
projected east of the Blue Ridge. SPC has highlighted a somewhat
rare 30 percent day 4 severe outlook for this area. Besides the
convective winds, gradient winds will also be strong immediately
ahead of and behind the front which could cause additional localized
tree damage and/or complicate recovery efforts. Cold air will be
rushing in immediately following the frontal passage. At a minimum,
the Allegheny Mountains will change to snow for a time in upslope
conditions. It remains uncertain if any postfrontal precip lingers
to the east long enough to change over.

[TSSN+]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If things go out way this could go MOD Risk for tor/wind. There's a legit high end potential here. Always good to see a strong jet streak coincide with a trough trying to negative tilt.

I mean if it continues I see 45% wind hatched at least for sure 

[Nomz]

Remember the new conversion tables