Kmlwx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. @yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. @yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats! Remember... the new type of convective outlooks come out starting next week with the 1630z Day 1 March 3rd outlook. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 I wasn't aware of this! I've been not monitoring as closely due to work. Thank you!!! Imagine a 90% wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I can't decipher these new outlooks. My astigmatism makes these hatched maps almost unreadable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28 Author Share Posted February 28 The 2nd half of the coming week has some minor potential. GFS has some modest supercell composite parameters - and even the Euro has some instability around. Interesting enough for early March, at least. Nothing substantial, of course. CSU-MLP has some minor probs painted over some of our area Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28 Author Share Posted February 28 19 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can't decipher these new outlooks. My astigmatism makes these hatched maps almost unreadable. It's definitely a little wacky looking - I'm not sure other than doing completely separate color-coded maps how they could have implemented this differently. I like the idea/principle, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 The CFS monthlies seemingly have a potential NW flow H5 pattern (at least in general/smoothed terms) same with CanSIPS. For June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Nice to see the thread ready to go for the upcoming season! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:33 PM Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 06:21 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 06:21 PM I think there could be some non-zero chances into next week. CSU MLP page looks "decent enough for this time of year" for next Wednesday, for example. It's always going to be slim pickings in March (and even most of April) - but I'm intrigued that as soon as warmer temps rolled in some of the predictive tools ramped up just a touch. Give us some unseasonably warm/humid days in April into May and something will probably pop off with how dynamics systems can still be that time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:14 PM 2 hours ago, yoda said: Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening? Way too stable for severe east of the mountains, but there will be some elevated instability, so I expect some thunder during the evening / overnight, especially for areas north of 66 (VA) and 50 (MD). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Pretty nice cell in eastern West Virginia. maybe some small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUnit Posted Thursday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:26 PM Pretty good cell going in West Virginia. Tagged for a possible tornado as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM Had first thunder of the season! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:36 PM Seems could be interesting out west tomorrow afternoon into night? Afternoon discussion from LWX We`re expecting two rounds of storms tomorrow. The first round is expected to form within a surface trough just to the east of the Alleghenies during the mid-late afternoon hours. Model soundings show a fair amount of dry air in place aloft, and large scale forcing for ascent won`t be overly strong, so areal coverage with this first round of storms is only expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. If storms do become well established, the background environment will have enough instability (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and shear (around 40 knots in the 0-6 km layer) to promote updraft rotation. Isolated instances of damaging winds or hail may be possible with these storms as they move eastward from the Potomac Highlands toward the I-81 corridor and then the Blue Ridge/Catoctins during the mid-late afternoon hours. Conditions will likely remain dry to the east of US-15 during the daylight hours. A second round of pre-existing storms will approach from the Ohio Valley, reaching the Allegheny Front around sunset. This round of storms could be well organized into a squall line, and may potentially be quite intense. With the loss of daytime heating, the trend will likely be downward with the strength of this activity as it moves into our area, but damaging winds may still be possible, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front. Large scale forcing for ascent may enable these storms to hold together in a weakened form as they move eastward across the forecast area during the first half of the night. As of now, SPC has Garrett County in Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with locations further east to about US-15 in a Marginal Risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Saturday at 05:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 05:22 AM You guys are gonna get LOTS of interesting severe weather this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Saturday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 05:23 AM You guys are gonna get LOTS of interesting severe weather this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM CSU MLP has increased our odds for Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago LWX AFD from this afternoon on Wednesday into Thursday KEY MESSAGE 2.. A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances starting Wednesday. Not too much change in regards to timing or hazards for the midweek period. Still monitoring the deep digging upper level trough dropping down out the Great Lakes region as well as a piece of southern stream energy ejecting out of the southern Plains region. At the surface, will lay a strong cold frontal boundary which will flip the script when it comes to late Winter and early Spring. 6/12z guidance still has this front progged to move through the area some time late Wednesday into Thursday. As for severe weather, it will be highly dependent on timing with a focus remaining west of the Blue Ridge. This is the area where better instability and shear may be maximized given a lead shortwave that should touch off some convection over the mountains Wednesday afternoon as the northern stream trough tries to take a negative tilt. CSU learning machine probabilities remain around 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards for the entirety of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. NSSL probabilities are quite similar with a focus more on areas west of US-15 and out across the Allegheny Mountains. Meanwhile, SPC continues to highlight a 15 percent probability zone for portions of Garrett Co. MD during the Day 4 (Wednesday into Thursday). Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as temperatures surge into the 70s and low 80s with dewpoint factors getting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Shear is a bit more uncertain with strong southwesterly flow at the surface ahead of the front and gusty northwesterly flow likely behind the front heading into the Thursday timeframe. Also, any early convection over the mountains combined with a later timing of the front (i.e Wednesday night into Thursday) could hamper convective output. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for storms if they can develop Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The bigger story with the front will be the notable drop in temperatures heading into late week. Temperatures will take a 15 to 25 degree dive Thursday with highs ranging from the 30s over the mountains to low 60s east of I-95 and across southern MD/central VA Piedmont. Some anafrontal snow is even possible in the Alleghenies as the front departs Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Temperatures do level out Friday with highs in the upper 40s over northeast MD/the Alleghenies and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the region. Similar values are expected this weekend despite another front passing through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 12z NAM looked a lil intriguing with its soundings at hrs 78 to 84 across the region. Granted it can change next run of course and its at range... but looks like our first real chance of severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 6 hours ago, yoda said: 12z NAM looked a lil intriguing with its soundings at hrs 78 to 84 across the region. Granted it can change next run of course and its at range... but looks like our first real chance of severe Soundings for later Wednesday do look interesting, but what will trigger storms? Maybe there is a subtle shortwave in the flow to do something, and the ECMWF admittedly does suggest a couple of open warm sector storms, but I'm skeptical. It appears that the strong forcing won't arrive until early Thursday, the most unfavorable time of day possible for this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago SPC opens Day 3 severe bidding with SLGT risk i81 corridor west and MRGL for the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Likely first MEH of the year for us. Woooooooo storms! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Likely first MEH of the year for us. Woooooooo storms! LNFG! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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