March 2026

[SACRUS]

Big ridge shifting to the EC, lets see how this progresses, ensures and ultimately how warm can push into the city NE

3/30 - 4/9 looks above to much above normal.

 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Snow !

Rgem also showing. Would be nice to see flakes.

[Brian5671]

Fairbanks AK -24 this AM 18th day this month below -20.   Brutal month for AK and much of Canada while most of the US roasts

[allgame830]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem also showing. Would be nice to see flakes.

Bro i love snow but its almost April..... lets get the warmer weather here!!!!

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Bro i love snow but its almost April..... lets get the warmer weather here!!!!

Leave that until mid April

[JerseyWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Leave that until mid April

We're done dude, hasn't snowed the whole month.

More rain Thursday night and next week could turn wet.

Might as well get our water supply built up and the reservoirs full now.  Hopefully by May we turn full spring mode.  April is always a toss up.

[NorthShoreWx]

On 3/24/2026 at 11:40 AM, psv88 said:

29 this morning. 

Hard freeze expected again Friday night and Saturday high around 42. Last freeze here is usually end of March/early April. So figure a few more weeks before growing season begins

Average last freeze in Smithtown for the past 30 years is April 12.  It really hasn't changed much over that time, despite 1996 being an outlier.

Last 32°, Smithtown NY
Year		Date		Low Temp
1996		5/14/1996		32
1997		4/16/1997		32
1998		4/13/1998		32
1999		3/27/1999		29
2000		4/14/2000		29
2001		4/20/2001		32
2002		4/24/2002		32
2003		4/8/2003		31
2004		4/6/2004		31
2005		4/17/2005		30
2006		3/30/2006		32
2007		4/11/2007		28
2008		5/1/2008		32
2009		4/17/2009		32
2010		3/28/2010		30
2011		3/30/2011		30
2012		3/28/2012		30
2013		4/7/2013		32
2014		4/21/2014		31
2015		4/12/2015		32
2016		4/14/2016		32
2017		4/13/2017		32
2018		4/21/2018		32
2019		4/2/2019		26
2020		4/19/2020		30
2021		4/4/2021		32
2022		3/30/2022		28
2023		4/10/2023		30
2024		4/26/2024		31
2025		4/10/2025		32

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Leave that until mid April

NAH NOW LOL 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Fairbanks AK -24 this AM 18th day this month below -20.   Brutal month for AK and much of Canada while most of the US roasts

Good. Let them freeze. It’s Alaska. It’s supposed to be cold 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good. Let them freeze. It’s Alaska. It’s supposed to be cold 

That's historic even by AK standards.   Canada too-very cold but very little of it made its way into the US so the cold/snowy March calls didn't work out.

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's historic even by AK standards.   Canada too-very cold but very little of it made its way into the US so the cold/snowy March calls didn't work out.

Maybe it’s historic, maybe it’s not. How do we know what the weather was 300 years ago?

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Average last freeze in Smithtown for the past 30 years is April 12.  It really hasn't changed much over that time, despite 1996 being an outlier.

Last 32°, Smithtown NY
Year		Date		Low Temp
1996		5/14/1996		32
1997		4/16/1997		32
1998		4/13/1998		32
1999		3/27/1999		29
2000		4/14/2000		29
2001		4/20/2001		32
2002		4/24/2002		32
2003		4/8/2003		31
2004		4/6/2004		31
2005		4/17/2005		30
2006		3/30/2006		32
2007		4/11/2007		28
2008		5/1/2008		32
2009		4/17/2009		32
2010		3/28/2010		30
2011		3/30/2011		30
2012		3/28/2012		30
2013		4/7/2013		32
2014		4/21/2014		31
2015		4/12/2015		32
2016		4/14/2016		32
2017		4/13/2017		32
2018		4/21/2018		32
2019		4/2/2019		26
2020		4/19/2020		30
2021		4/4/2021		32
2022		3/30/2022		28
2023		4/10/2023		30
2024		4/26/2024		31
2025		4/10/2025		32

Average last freeze here in Campbel Hall over the last 20 is April 27. Here is a comparsion of our numbers if interested:

Smithtown		Campbell Hall
3/30/2006	32	4/30/2006	30
4/11/2007	28	4/11/2007	22
5/1/2008	32	5/1/2008	28
4/17/2009	32	4/17/2009	30
3/28/2010	30	5/11/2010	30
3/30/2011	30	4/22/2011	28
3/28/2012	30	4/30/2012	29
4/7/2013	32	4/27/2013	32
4/21/2014	31	4/25/2014	30
4/12/2015	32	4/26/2015	28
4/14/2016	32	4/21/2016	32
4/13/2017	32	4/9/2017	31
4/21/2018	32	4/24/2018	31
4/2/2019	26	4/29/2019	32
4/19/2020	30	5/14/2020	31
4/4/2021	32	4/23/2021	30
3/30/2022	28	4/30/2022	32
4/10/2023	30	5/15/2023	30
4/26/2024	31	4/27/2024	32
4/10/2025	32	4/18/2025	29

[NorthShoreWx]

29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Average last freeze here in Campbel Hall over the last 20 is April 27. Here is a comparsion of our numbers if interested:

Smithtown		Cambell Hall
3/30/2006	32	4/30/2006	30
4/11/2007	28	4/11/2007	22
5/1/2008	32	5/1/2008	28
4/17/2009	32	4/17/2009	30
3/28/2010	30	5/11/2010	30
3/30/2011	30	4/22/2011	28
3/28/2012	30	4/30/2012	29
4/7/2013	32	4/27/2013	32
4/21/2014	31	4/25/2014	30
4/12/2015	32	4/26/2015	28
4/14/2016	32	4/21/2016	32
4/13/2017	32	4/9/2017	31
4/21/2018	32	4/24/2018	31
4/2/2019	26	4/29/2019	32
4/19/2020	30	5/14/2020	31
4/4/2021	32	4/23/2021	30
3/30/2022	28	4/30/2022	32
4/10/2023	30	5/15/2023	30
4/26/2024	31	4/27/2024	32
4/10/2025	32	4/18/2025	29

Thanks, that is interesting.  For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11.  Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here.  Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time.  I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°.  Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring.

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Thanks, that is interesting.  For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11.  Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here.  Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time.  I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°.  Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring.

at my old location, 1.2 miles NW of my current location, the average last freeze from 2017 to 2025 was 4/14...earliest was 4/2 in 2019 and latest was 4/26 in 2024

[Dark Star]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe it’s historic, maybe it’s not. How do we know what the weather was 300 years ago?

Science uses tree rings, ice core samples, sedimentary rock, etc. to determine temperatures from past years...

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Thanks, that is interesting.  For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11.  Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here.  Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time.  I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°.  Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring.

For fall numbers I have the following firsts:

NWS defined frost (36-32)

Visible Frost (not exactly a scientific category)

Freeze (32 and below)

Hard Freeze (28 and below)

[SACRUS]

Today

EWR: 54 / 34 (-1)
NYC: 54 / 38 (0)

[donsutherland1]

Unseasonably warm air will briefly move into the region tomorrow. Hights will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Friday will be somewhat cooler with highs reaching the middle 50s. 

Another cold front could cross the region on tomorrow night or Friday. The front will bring a few showers or thundershowers. The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near or even somewhat below freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.585 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[the_other_guy]

Gore today…

[bluewave]

The warm spots will make a run on 70° today and 80° next week.

 

 

[MJO812]

Looking like a wet pattern will be developing  

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looking like a wet pattern will be developing  

GFS and EURO both very wet for the eastern US

[TJW014]

Took a ride yesterday evening through the Pine Barrens. Rolled up on an active prescribed fire area. There was a recently cut fire break, so I decided to get out and follow it to an orange glow in the distance. 

I made it to the active burning area. The sounds- the roar of the flames and the endless snaps, pops, and crackles were incredible (and I'd be scared shitless if it were an actual wildfire). 

It's really cool seeing how fire creates its own microclimate. Wind was otherwise calm around 7 PM but within about a 50 yard radius, the wind was significant stronger, hotter (obviously) and progressed the fire quickly (moving at about 50 feet per minute)

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Looking like a wet pattern will be developing  

Such is April.

Never expect nice Spring weather until May.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS and EURO both very wet for the eastern US

Typical onset of El Nino conditions 

[winterwarlock]

Lets see how close to 80 i get today

[psv88]

56 after a low of 42. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Lets see how close to 80 i get today

Just hit 60 here

[MJO812]

64 here

[MJO812]

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.