March 2026

[MJO812]

AO and NAO trending downward 

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AO and NAO trending downward 

Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?

No, and there have been snowstorms on the spring equinox before (see 3/20/2015 and 3/21/2018). There won't be one this year.

[vegan_edible]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?

heard they're pushing it back because the ao is apparently dropping

[EastonSN+]

23 hours ago, nycwinter said:

ahead of the storm in the northeast we had arctic cold, those are days long past by for mid march.

It was called a 100 year storm so unlikely to see again in our lifetime if they are correct. 

The arctic cold was extreme for March even back then. As long as we keep seeing snow in April we sill still get snowy March months.

 

[EastonSN+]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. 

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. 

The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will build in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +26.18 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.365 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Two years in a row of below normal Dec, Jan and Feb. Followed by above normal March.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?

Who gives a crap. We have seen snow many times past the Equinox.

I know its harder but there is still alot of cold air around. 

[MJO812]

Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS

[JerseyWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who gives a crap. We have seen snow many times past the Equinox.

I know its harder but there is still alot of cold air around. 

Definitely going to be cool coming up but I wouldn't expect anything snow wise.

Sure, we have seen snow after the equinox, but how often is it anything accumulating?  Honestly, at this point, who cares about a dusting or car topper?

Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with average temps, not looking for a torch or anything this early in the season, but time to pack it in with the snow now.  You got your KU dude!

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS

Euro has nothing but the potential is there.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Definitely going to be cool coming up but I wouldn't expect anything snow wise.

Sure, we have seen snow after the equinox, but how often is it anything accumulating?  Honestly, at this point, who cares about a dusting or car topper?

Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with average temps, not looking for a torch or anything this early in the season, but time to pack it in with the snow now.  You got your KU dude!

The snow will accumulate if the pattern is right.

[Stormlover74]

Euro continues to be super wet for Monday 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Two years in a row of below normal Dec, Jan and Feb. Followed by above normal March.

December (2024) and February (2025) were near normal. January being well below average made the winter BN.

This December, January, and February were all well below average. The first time since January, February, and March 2015. Of course, that was followed by a near record warm May.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in long range on GFS

300+ hour snowmap on the op GFS at the end of March. That deserves a double bun!! lmfaoooooo

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

300+ hour snowmap on the op GFS at the end of March. That deserves a double bun!! lmfaoooooo

Yes it does

[MJO812]

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro continues to be super wet for Monday 

WE need the rain so good news and with the snowpack gone less flooding risk.

[Rjay]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

December (2024) and February (2025) were near normal. January being well below average made the winter BN.

This December, January, and February were all well below average. The first time since January, February, and March 2015. Of course, that was followed by a near record warm May.

December 2024 and February 2025 were officially below average.

 

[Stormlover74]

Slight and enhanced adjusted north and east

[psv88]

51 today. Blustery but still spent a lot of time outside with dog and kids. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

NBM 5.0:

[donsutherland1]

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs.

Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. 

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. 

The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +10.43 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.