Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[Steckstacks]

To me this seems like a storm that the mountains will dry out. No moisture coming from gulf and progressive flow usually kills us.


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[Ji]

More than the last? 

It went from a dusting to a dusting

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It went from a dusting to a dusting

Perfect lol 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean it was wrong lol. Just cause a model shows a low over the Midwest an it ends up in the Ohio valley doesn’t mean it was right. Ya all the models show outputs that maybe somewhat close but when we are looking at our area what happens matters. 

Right but the point is it was LESS WRONG then all the other models day 5-8 and so on a chart of verification scores it would look good.  

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nothing worse than a met hyping model run that falls on its face

Hell yeah I’m considered a met 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

This was the gfs yesterday for today’s system: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026022512&fh=30

Talk to me when the euro shows me a snowstorm.

The current radar is making me think I should delete this post.

[Ji]

the Euro AI insistence that this will be beefier should not be ignored. The euro is struggling

[Imgoinhungry]

Did euro show significant ice for moco and north, or largely a nothing burger?


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[WxUSAF]

It’s gonna snow. Get on the bus weenies 

[bncho]

45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hell yeah I’m considered a met 

you might have member next to your tag but so do PSU and Bobby Chill. that's kinda how I see you

[Amped]

Have we ever had a widespread 6" from a storm with no low pressure whatsoever?

[mitchnick]

Eps look worse than 0z. 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s gonna snow. Get on the bus weenies 

 

[TSSN+]

59 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The current radar is making me think I should delete this post.

Ya it’s raining when most models said no precip. Def not snow though lol 

[87storms]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s raining when most models said no precip. Def not snow though lol 

That is true. Gfs tried lol

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s raining when most models said no precip. Def not snow though lol 

Damn

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s gonna snow. Get on the bus weenies 

I’ve got one if you need it after the next Euro run. Just picked up a couple guys from the southeast forum. Plenty of room.

 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn

the euro has become unusable 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro has become unusable 

Yeah, that was a notable fumble 

[Cobalt]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn

The icing on the cake is that the GFS hasn’t shown precip in that area for the past 3 runs. It decided to give up right as it was at the finish line 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Just skip this run.  It's not horrific like Ji said, but it's pretty paltry

Initial wave is weak sauce with the cold high in place(we get a coating verbatim), then stronger shortwave energy follows close behind as the HP is moving off the coast. We get some light mixed crap on the southern edge while it snows in NE. Some tweaks in timing aloft could yield a better outcome. We just cant know..

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

the euro has become unusable 

Do you really believe that?

[CAPE]

Well written snippet from the Mt Holly AFD describing the key features that models likely have not resolved yet-

A much colder air mass is forecast to be in place early next week as arctic high pressure from Canada builds nearby. There will be one or more ripples of energy in the northern stream that will initiate some precipitation. The timing and strength of these features within a trough aloft will determine the details. Some guidance is weaker with the trough and associated energy and therefore less precipitation, while focusing on a secondary short wave that delivers more of the precipitation on Tuesday compared to Monday. There still remains the potential for a period of wintry precipitation Monday and/or Tuesday, however uncertainty remains as the model guidance continues to differ on the handling of the upper- level features. The pattern does look conducive though for an overrunning snow or wintry mix setup with arctic high pressure to the north and energy arriving from the west. It is a matter of how much the moisture attacks the cold air across our region, with also how far south the arctic high pushes.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Damn

Yep that is were the GFS had the mex qpf up until yesterday... the problem is it is 15 warmer than the GFS thought.

[stormy]

We have been playing  this stuff for years.    How about, MARCH is HERE  

Below 1000 ft., it is mostly over.  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

We have been playing  this stuff for years.    How about, MARCH is HERE  

Below 1000 ft., it is mostly over.  

And we’re worried about suppression in March, but whatever you say

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

We have been playing  this stuff for years.    How about, MARCH is HERE  

Below 1000 ft., it is mostly over.  

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

[mitchnick]

Gfs south again

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs south again

Put us out of our misery 

[MDsnowPRO]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

Paging Dr PSU and his warming theory.