Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Why was the eps ignored?

[Ji]

Why was the eps ignored?

Cause it’s boring

[stormtracker]

some light snow from like 129-135 so far.  Precip is a good bit drier than 12z unfortunately 

[stormtracker]

This run sucks

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Cause it’s boring

It's very valid data we need.

[stormtracker]

GreyHat dry

[Amped]

Guess we'll have to wait for the St Patties day blizzard.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why was the eps ignored?

Da fuck you talking about?

[Heisy]

Gfs has the event at 111 hours, euro still has precip in the midwesr at that period. Theyre completely different at H5

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Da fuck you talking about?

There is no 12z eps map in this thread.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Gfs has the event at 111 hours, euro still has precip in the midwesr at that period. Theyre completely different at H5

So after last weekend we gonna bet against the gfs?

[Ji]

some light snow from like 129-135 so far.  Precip is a good bit drier than 12z unfortunately 

Those off runs man ..yikes

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So after last weekend we gonna bet against the gfs?

After it had .5 Qpf tomorrow over dc until 18z (still kinda does) 24 hours out, are you gonna BET ON IT?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

53 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was about to roast him, but I just let it go.   It's like there are no examples of where it was 70 before a major snowstorm and the snow stuck just fine.

Yup.  There were some pretty warm days the week leading into the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2014, and that was 2 weeks later too.  Yeah a lot of that fell at night but it started in the afternoon and continued into early the next day.  Plus, it was below freezing the entire following day.  Not to mention the event on the 1st day of spring 2018, it was cool leading into it (below normal) but not extreme, it was the 3rd week of March, and that snow all fell during the daylight hours.  And of course, March 2015 (same approximate time as this upcoming potential, 1st week of the month), where it rained the night before up to the morning of the event as a front went through, then a wave that went up the front dumped 6" snow on us...again, during the daylight hours as it turned colder.

[Jake Wx]

euro is practically the same run but jus les precip

[NorthArlington101]

This before FRZA. Not awesome but I’d take it 

[bncho]

can't wait for rev war to talk about march sun angle and how this event won't happen and how we're tracking a rainstorm, then he'll insult CAPE and when we tell him thats not nice he'll start saying about how we're bullies

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs has the event at 111 hours, euro still has precip in the midwesr at that period. Theyre completely different at H5

There isnt a sharp shortwave- vorticity ribbons are streaking eastward from the upper low out west underneath upper level jet streaks. There are differences-

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

There isnt a sharp shortwave- vorticity ribbons are streaking eastward from the upper low out west underneath upper level jet streaks. There are differences-

I’d prefer the simpler evolution of the gfs, realistically they could both be right if pulses come out.

[CAPE]

Op runs at range tho. See what HH EPS has.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This before FRZA. Not awesome but I’d take it 

This isn’t going to cut it. I’m sorry. Not after this past week and storm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This isn’t going to cut it. I’m sorry. Not after this past week and storm

Yeah I’ll punt this and take a torch. 

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

euro is practically the same run but jus les precip

That’s one way to phrase it. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO highlights the freezing rain, not interested.

[TSSN+]

It’s not going to matter much what the models look like for another few days and we should have learned this by now. I’m guess in 48hrs..probably even 24 it’ll all look different anyway. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Op runs at range tho. See what HH EPS has.

Yup. It’s simple but it’s not.  I’m firmly in the optimistic camp. 

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's very valid data we need.

From Hurricane hunters 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

There is no 12z eps map in this thread.

Hard to believe with the competition among the snow map weenies to post them lol

[paxpatriot]

Man, there is “Dr. No” and the 18z Euro: “Dr. Go **** Yourself”.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup. It’s simple but it’s not.  I’m firmly in the optimistic camp. 

Yeah there really isnt that much difference at the surface or aloft.