March Madness

[Kitz Craver]

45 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'm sure more shingles will rip off tonight. Lost a few in Nov. South winds are the worst for our house. 

Yup. I also have a beam in my kitchen that only leaks on South winds.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty similar to 2017-2018, just flip February and March and slit the snow between Jan/Feb.

So much cold still around. Big ULL. A major storm evolution. Position will be key. EPS still looking intriguing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much cold still around. Big ULL. A major storm evolution. Position will be key. EPS still looking intriguing 

Yea, I'm not holding my breath...if something comes together, great.....but I'm not pinned to the models. I've reached the stage where I'm content with the winter and am ready for the off-season....but if the hype starts to mount, I'll get ready for one last hurrah. I haven't cancelled the subscriptions...yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unless something really looks ominous, I've viewed guidance for the last time this AM...just did a cursory glace and it seems more conducive for NNE.

[dendrite]

No need to view models anyway with metfan and ineedsnow still posting. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Something else that's under everyone's radar ( no wonder considering - ), is that there were occasional model cycles building warm anomaly heights over the eastern continent, replete with over-governing circulation modes back then too.  It's just that there wasn't any consistency; save for the heat we did get last week, but that was outside the outlook.  We were looking at mid month, i.e., now. 

Anyway, there did turn out to be a big heat anomaly.  It packed back SW and is setting off headlines alerts. 

I've been noticing this over the last several summers actually, that type of correction vectoring.  We'd see a big warm up/ridge type -PNAP emerge in the outer temporal horizon of the models, and then it would retrograde through the charts as time went by to just go ahead and end on up right back in the SW frying eggs on High School parking lot science experiments in PHX.  

I've mused to self that one of these global synergistic heat burst phenomenon might one day visit the NE U.S., should one of those evolve opposite of that persistent correction vectoring - but it's never seemingly capable of doing that since I started noticing that specific behavior.  Then, in the winters... we are consummately getting this weird local cold node where despite the background CC evidence, we are - quite convenient and enabling ... - persistently colder than everyone else.  I'm not convinced correcting west warmth in the summers, and consummate cold enabling verification in the winters, is entirely unrelated.

Yet ... we are supposedly warming fast than anywhere on the planet in the era of accelerating CC? interesting

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No need to view models anyway with metfan and ineedsnow still posting. 

Even they can't find an hour 300 snowstorm this morning.  OVER

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Too bad we can't get what the Mid-Atlantic is getting today.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like about .6 or so here based on local PWS stations.  

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No need to view models anyway with metfan and ineedsnow still posting. 

We will be until mid April.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even they can't find an hour 300 snowstorm this morning.  OVER

Its not over as long as there is a possibility of wintry weather. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I feel like every year on March 15th we go through this same stench of denial over the seasonal termination timing. 

I think people need to adopt the following notion at a spiritual level; a perpetually constraining limitation on their expectations:

Winter ends after March 7.

Springs sometimes host snow as a very valid part of Spring in New England's climate.   If/when snow becomes a prevalent outlook event in Spring, it is normal Spring weather... and does not reflect winter as still existing.  

Also - while not (yet) a prerequisite for getting a 100 on that mental acuity test, anyone include CC disruption gets extra credit. 

[WxWatcher007]

Warmer here at WXW2 than back in CT. Don’t see that often. 

Lake Placid mesonet gusted to 66mph last night. Nothing as exotic at SLK. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel like every year on March 15th we go through this same stench of denial over the seasonal termination timing. 

I think people need to adopt the following notion at a spiritual level; a perpetually constraining limitation on their expectations:

Winter ends after March 7.

Springs sometimes host snow as a very valid part of Spring in New England's climate.   If/when snow becomes a prevalent outlook event in Spring, it is normal Spring weather... and does not reflect winter as still existing.  

Also - while not (yet) a prerequisite for getting a 100 on that mental acuity test, anyone include CC disruption gets extra credit. 

There is always a possibility of wintry weather as we go through March. While I will continue to look at the models, I think the winter is just about over. 

Very sad ending to a great winter 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not over as long as there is a possibility of wintry weather. 

The cold march busted.    Most places are +2 to +4 so far with nothing cold outside of one day in the next week or so

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

The cold march busted.    Most places are +2 to +4 so far with nothing cold outside of one day in the next week or so

It does look like that. I had hope with the favorable MJO and teleconnections. I will continue to track but it doesnt look good like it did earlier this month.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Warmer here at WXW2 than back in CT. Don’t see that often. 

yeah, today had a downer murk look for a week's worth of guidance approaching.

the high pressure is retreating due E keeps the SEsties in a moist/saturated flow.  The warm front comes through later.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

So is that thunder coming on board in S CT?  Looks like it's warm frontal thrust/lifting edge

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So is that thunder coming on board in S CT?  Looks like it's warm frontal thrust/lifting edge

54 here, WF already by. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

54 here, WF already by. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The cold march busted.    Most places are +2 to +4 so far with nothing cold outside of one day in the next week or so

I mean, I called for a warm March and April in early February. The cold was on borrowed time. We never get more than 3 straight months of well below average temperatures anymore. The last time was in January-March 2015. Then, things turned warmer in April and May had close to record warmth. 4 straight well below average temperature months is just about impossible, especially in this warming climate.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

54 here, WF already by. 

It’ll be 60 soon . Already 53 and soaring with winds . Wild one ahead 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ll sell that depiction and move the front north. 

[dendrite]

NAM has 100kt at 850 over ORH tonight. Obviously we’re a little inverted, but if we could get spots pushing 60/60 we’d mix a lot more down from H9.

[klw]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even they can't find an hour 300 snowstorm this morning.  OVER

Did they miss the 0Z GFS 30+" storm?

[Typhoon Tip]

Change in climate by raw numbers since 1980 implies that in nominal forcing, March in New England ( regional variance notwithstanding) is ~ +1F for 1980 thru 2010.  Hint, it hasn't gone down since, either.

If one were back in early February and said a warmer than normal March, that's not a bad gamble.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell that depiction and move the front north. 

yeah, perhaps but ... the convection in S CT seemed coincident. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM has 100kt at 850 over ORH tonight. Obviously we’re a little inverted, but if we could get spots pushing 60/60 we’d mix a lot more down from H9.

If you look at Euro, GFS, NAM’s, HRRR.. all of them gust over 60 and some over 70. The Euro is the weakest and has 60+. Interesting 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, perhaps but ... the convection in S CT seemed coincident. 

Looks like it ahead of some elevated instability 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you look at Euro, GFS, NAM’s, HRRR.. all of them gust over 60 and some over 70. The Euro is the weakest and has 60+. Interesting 

Nam is 95kts at 925 approaching south coast.