March Madness

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we’ll see I guess. Hopefully it’s Erin Go Shovel come St Patty’s day.

Would prefer Erin go braless by that point 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had a great great run. I don’t recall the exact day in January where we had the first snowfall after the brief mild up but a solid 50+ days straight of deep snowpack. All good things as they say, must come to an end 

That was the 1/18-19 storm. Hopefully we can grab one more decent sized event. (Like a warning event) Would be a nice finish to the cold season. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was the 1/18-19 storm. Hopefully we can grab one more decent sized event. (Like a warning event) Would be a nice finish to the cold season. 

Yeah we had solid pack from that point on. Haven’t seen anything like that since 2015

[mahk_webstah]

It can end. I mean, we just had almost a foot of snow in three days.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's an anomaly out there right now.  Low grade but it is ...  27 dead air capped over by strata protecting a fresh inch of mixed glaze and sleet is more Jan 6 than Mar 6... 

As an aside ... I'm assuming based on recency that when the monthly mean is released by NASA, Feb will have completed the trifecta of core winter months all being well above normal, globally, while a small node of isolated negative anomalies - of only two or three covering the whole planet - will be situated right here. 

This is a blessed year for winter enthusiasts within said repeating oddity.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Weathergeek has some nice charts he can make for you.

But yea the Euro/EPS/AI has a nice look with wstrn ridge around the 16-19th time period. GEFS is more zonal and hasn't been that great looking overall compared to the EPS/AIEPS. Thats right about the time period that storm pops on the 00Z EC OP. Good solid HP to our north with a lot of cold air to work with as well.

GEPS is definitely more euro like

 

 

 

GEFS catching up to EPS MJO moving into phase 8. Trough could trend stronger though without any blocking may be transient. 

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro looks nice at hr144

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro looks nice at hr144

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

[Typhoon Tip]

So yeah ... the Euro's ens system's had a hard-on for flipping the continent toward a strong +PNAP just after the Ides in recent runs. The entire PNA domain may only be partial during that 14-18th period, but who cares... if there's a deep trough transient in the region that's all it takes.

If that were the only guidance available, that's probably a risk period.  It may be .. it's possible the EPS has a better handle on the mid month than the other ens systems.   Which don't show as robust of a +PNAP...  In fact, their Pac --> N/A relays are more neutral in the total PNA character, conserving more speed/stretched wave lengths in the GEFs/GEPs.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

Wednesday?

[Typhoon Tip]

Too much PV strung out across the Canadian Shield for me to like big warm ups along the NP-GL-NE garland. 

I mentioned this over a week ago, when that was in the guidance ens longer range means; because of that the warm ups should be held in check. I called it melt and mud season.  I now wonder if we get that much but will hold for now.  If the former should prove more poorly/unseen confluences causing wedge highs to undercut ...no shocker. 

I've also been observing these models runs ever since... inch by inch have been eroding/rasping the tops off the N latitude of the warm bulges.  I don't think the aforementioned PV constraints are entirely unrelated to that sneaky correction tendency/leans.

[ariof]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we had solid pack from that point on. Haven’t seen anything like that since 2015

Does anyone know why KBOS stopped reporting daily snow depth in the late 1990s? This year would be in the top 10, except the data cuts off around 2000. 

1977 and 1978 both had two solid months, and 1994 and 1996 both had 30+ days. I have to assume 2015 would be right near the top of the list.

KMQE does have data going back longer, right now is sitting at 46 days, 29th longest. Longer this century: 56 (2001), 70 (2015), 77 (2011), 84 (2003). Record of 100 ending 3/23/1923.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was the 1/18-19 storm. Hopefully we can grab one more decent sized event. (Like a warning event) Would be a nice finish to the cold season. 

Yup…that system came back overnight that Friday into Saturday morning in all modeling…and we had a nice Martin Luther king weekend…And then it has been full steam ahead from there.  But December was good and cold too..with a nice system on 12/26. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

Does anyone know why KBOS stopped reporting daily snow depth in the late 1990s? This year would be in the top 10, except the data cuts off around 2000. 

1977 and 1978 both had two solid months, and 1994 and 1996 both had 30+ days. I have to assume 2015 would be right near the top of the list.

KMQE does have data going back longer, right now is sitting at 46 days, 29th longest. Longer this century: 56 (2001), 70 (2015), 77 (2011), 84 (2003). Record of 100 ending 3/23/1923.

KBOS doesn’t have an on duty observer. Just someone that reports snowfall. 

[NoCORH4L]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…that system came back overnight that Friday into Saturday morning in all modeling…and we had a nice Martin Luther king weekend…And then it has been full steam ahead from there.  But December was good and cold too..with a nice system on 12/26. 

Mid DEC until late JAN wasn't great. Mostly dry with a couple rain events, and a couple torch periods. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said:

Mid DEC until late JAN wasn't great. Mostly dry with a couple rain events, and a couple torch periods. 

We had good cold aside from 10 days or so. And CT was able to cash in a bit on smaller events so I can see why people from there would rate that period better than you or I. 

[mahk_webstah]

For me this week pushed this winter to an A.  I think we’re now above our seasonal average and probably more snow to fall. The snowpack has been relentless and quite deep for a long stretches. We’ve had good cold. I don’t need to have a record breaking cold to rate the winter and A, just solid, long, lasting cold that gives us long periods of time where rain isn’t even a possibility. This is really been the best wall-to-wall winter in quite a long time for up here

[mahk_webstah]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

Wpc kinda hinting at that on its winter weather maps for Wednesday into Thursday.  If the season holds to form that will trend colder. I’m guessing we’re not out of this until the MJO goes through phase 8 and we get rid of the polar vortex being near to us. Maybe we get an end to winter by the end of the third week of March? I hope so, there’s things to plant.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc kinda hinting at that on its winter weather maps for Wednesday into Thursday.  If the season holds to form that will trend colder. I’m guessing we’re not out of this until the MJO goes through phase 8 and we get rid of the polar vortex being near to us. Maybe we get an end to winter by the end of the third week of March? I hope so, there’s things to plant.

Seems like cold could last into early April before we turn milder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would prefer Erin go braless by that point 

The stool-softener last night put me over 70", anyway....

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

I don't want to be careful 

[dendrite]

Yeah we’ve lost wednesday lol.

Euro and gfs are flirting with zr here in the afternoon. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably be an early heat wave in April

[ineedsnow]

Maybe we do keep our pack up here this week.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I took a more discrete look at the ensemble means ( all three) and there's a lot of suggestion there that the eastern arm/warm frontal position never gets N of LI across the 11th. 

1030 .. 1035 mb high pressure over Ontario amassing its way E into Quebec doesn't exactly campaign for blasting a boundary N of Fryeburg Maine, either, so there's not much there to pick apart.   If the whole scope of it all changes, then fine.  But as is, no warm up at all NE of mid Jersey next week. 

Next

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would be nice to get it out of the way on Wednesday and have a drier, cooler Thursday

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I don't want to be careful 

No snow condoms for you.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I took a more discrete look at the ensemble means ( all three) and there's a lot of suggestion there that the eastern arm/warm frontal position never gets N of LI across the 11th. 

1030 .. 1035 mb high pressure over Ontario amassing its way E into Quebec doesn't exactly campaign for blasting a boundary N of Fryeburg Maine, either, so there's not much there to pick apart.   If the whole scope of it all changes, then fine.  But as is, no warm up at all NE of mid Jersey next week. 

Next

Was always very nervous about the mid-week period when looking at that configuration across Canada. It's extremely difficult this time of year here to get full blow warm frontal passages through the region. It can be easy to get carried away with seeing pretty oranges with H5 anomalies and 850 temp anomalies but there is alot that can muk up sfc warm frontal passages. This is exactly how NNE (especially elevations) can rack up end of season snowfall totals

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Maybe we do keep our pack up here this week.. 

melt it all. Will be elephant man pack by then. 

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had good cold aside from 10 days or so. And CT was able to cash in a bit on smaller events so I can see why people from there would rate that period better than you or I. 

We also had a white Xmas west of 128....12/26 wasnt bad here either, about 4-4.5"