2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Solution Man]

[Nomz]

Doesn’t the GEFS have some ptype problems at this range?

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Catoctins are going to get hammered

[bncho]

Who’s PBPing HH Euro? @stormtracker

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Doesn’t the GEFS have some ptype problems at this range?

Yes, though that doesn't explain it being substantially wetter than most of the other guidance alongside its snow depiction. In fact, in recent storms outside of Jan '22, the GEFS is seemingly more often than not further south with its precip extent. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Catoctins are going to get hammered

We kinda live there… not the high elevations but my 900 feet couldn’t hurt. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Who’s PBPing HH Euro? @stormtracker

Randy is with umbrella boy, you take it bud. Just get it right. 

[Ji]

Who’s PBPing HH Euro? [mention=9]stormtracker[/mention]

He is under an umbrella

[Ji]

Where is Chuck?
I got a fever, and the only prescription.. is more +PNA baby!

See what happens when you a have a pna

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Who’s PBPing HH Euro? @stormtracker

He’s not in here, you do it

[bncho]

Euro more phased at hour 12

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS members about 22 (73%) are big hits for the entire region.  Impressive.

[WEATHER53]

CAB  time over and soon it’s what actually occurring to sw .  11am-4pm Sun likely tells the tale of either 1-2” mixed slop or 7” of snow and see what happens later. .  I don’t  know about the myth that because it’s Nina then low pressures can’t be strong.  Mostly Nina just prevents them from ever existing to begin with 

[bncho]

+PNA stronger, heights much better downstream as well

[bncho]

Deeper more amped trough

(im not going to say any opinions about what i think this will do, just the facts for now)

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Doesn’t the GEFS have some ptype problems at this range?

Like me, they're old. You expect ptype problems. 

[bncho]

Euro AI WEST!

[VBweather]

What would have to happen to get Hampton roads involved? We are always on the wrong side of the cut line. Frustrating. Just serious answers. Thanks. 

[bncho]

Euro more negatively tilted at hr 51

[nw baltimore wx]

Nacho can’t use the f-word, so if things get good, might I suggest “chee**”

[bncho]

i'm going to let out a "guys...."

[yoda]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Nacho can’t use the f-word, so if things get good, might I suggest “chee**”

18z Euro is bussin

Looks better at 48 with neg tilt at h5

[bncho]

Euro ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A COASTAL!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

i'm going to let out a "guys...."

I’ll reserve comments til after the runs. 

[bncho]

Euro AI

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ll reserve comments til after the runs. 

Little too broad methinks. But we'll see.

[bncho]

Ok i'm done with the adrenaline.

big thing about the euro... it's not there but boy are we getting close to it

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

Ok i'm done with the adrenaline.

big thing about the euro... it's not there but boy are we getting close to it

I’m disappointed in you, you showed the “trend” and it was almost identical at h57 vs 12z at 63. I mean maybe an asshair better, surface was improved I’d say. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro AI

You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You can see the definition beginning to show up in lower res models of the norlun trough. This one is over south-central PA and would extend down to the south-southeast. Someone on the northwest side is going to get in on a nice surprise. Great look on AIFS now. QPF distribution looking very solid. 

The heavy #’s are still moving west, what if it’s not done moving our way?