2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

There's the eye clearing out at the benchmark.

This happened with the Feb 2006 storm. I'll never forget seeing the visible satellite that morning after staying up all night with the heavy thundersnow. 

[mappy]

Point and click forecast is 5-8” imby 

[pazzo83]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

This happened with the Feb 2006 storm. I'll never forget seeing the visible satellite that morning after staying up all night with the heavy thundersnow. 

this feels a lot like that storm no?  Was NYC's biggest snow until Jan 2016

[AmericanWxFreak]

So glad to see the shitty 6z runs bouncing back a bit - if we can keep that rolling into this evening, game on.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now. 

Ha, I’m close enough to that 

I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ha, I’m close enough to that 

I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .

Gonna be fun overnight Sunday into Monday if we can get those 30+ mph gusts and some good falling snow. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Point and click forecast is 5-8” imby 

4 - 7" here.  

[TSSN+]

I’d say it’s about time we got positive game time improvements from a system. Hopefully it continues into tonight and we all looking at a massive snow storm. 

[NorthArlington101]

Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now. 

The people must know if we can get this 50mi west.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

this feels a lot like that storm no?  Was NYC's biggest snow until Jan 2016

A little bit. That one was an I-95 special. That radar in engrained into my memory bank. The CCB oscillating over I-95 for hours until the closed 5H center out of WV finally caught up to it and stacked off SNJ. This one will be stronger in terms of pressures and winds, but somewhere will get a gnarly deformation axis and snow will undoubtedly linger into Monday if this gets captured near our latitude, which seems to have some growing consensus. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The people must know if we can get this 50mi west.

Looked at the Nam again a minute ago upstairs, the h5 improvements while noticeable and impressive were NOT huge and resulted in a MUCH MUCH better outcome on 12z

[LeesburgWx]

Not sure how I feel right now. Most models show 4-6” out here but we are so damn close to more. Storms like this make me want to move Northeast so bad

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

A little bit. That one was an I-95 special. That radar in engrained into my memory bank. The CCB oscillating over I-95 for hours until the closed 5H center out of WV finally caught up to it and stacked off SNJ. This one will be stronger in terms of pressures and winds, but somewhere will get a gnarly deformation axis and snow will undoubtedly linger into Monday if this gets captured near our latitude, which seems to have some growing consensus. 

Seeing the h5 axis more negative and positioned a bit south on the 12z nam’s helped a lot for the capture and bombing.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, I’m close enough to that 

I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, I’m close enough to that 

I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .

I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The people must know if we can get this 50mi west.

I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up. 

Yeah I’m prepared to be in the min, but thinking easterly flow should help me a bit over here.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, I’m close enough to that 

I’m still kinda wary of getting caught between the best IVT death band and the coastal CCB. But it’s gonna snow and I’m excited for that .

I like where the norlun trough band is right now (for IMBY). Winchester. Ideally it'll shift east?

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d say it’s about time we got positive game time improvements from a system. Hopefully it continues into tonight and we all looking at a massive snow storm. 

Sorry for the banter, but good to see you posting.  Hope you're feeling better!

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

4 - 7" here.  

Hoping daytime stuff sticks more than forecast 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up. 

Ooof that min is too close for comfort haha 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, mappy said:

Hoping daytime stuff sticks more than forecast 

Ooof that min is too close for comfort haha 

If these 12z runs come to fruition, I think you'll do pretty well up there with the elevation factor and forever pivoting bands on the backside of this thing. I like 5-10" for your hood 

[anotherman]

Ooof that min is too close for comfort haha 

I’m west of 83 and east of 81. Gulp.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

If these 12z runs come to fruition, I think you'll do pretty well up there with the elevation factor and forever pivoting bands on the backside of this thing. I like 5-10" for your hood 

Do you think my elevation (around 400') is enough to matter for this storm? Thinking it will be as I've done pretty okay in elevation dependent events.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, anotherman said:

I’m west of 83 and east of 81. Gulp.

Same, naturally. Close to the catoctins at around 900’ elevation, hopefully I’ll get some benefit from the pivot and bands 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup

Last question… this you? Ya’ll able to say how automated vs. manual it is? I love it for obvious reasons but don’t know how it gets pulled together. 

[MN Transplant]

ICON looks fine.  Ignore the snow maps, they are irrelevant.  0.3" precip falls in DC-Balt after 00z, and if we are taking 22z to be the changeover, there's likely another 0.1" added to that (I only have the 6-hr increments on Pivotal).  So, that puts it in the 0.4" of snow QPF camp.

[Wetbulbs88]

11 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

this feels a lot like that storm no?  Was NYC's biggest snow until Jan 2016

Boxing Day 2010 

[baltosquid]

ICON is a hold. It looks like it comes a tiny bit west initially but pushes the low east a tick quicker next frame. Totals are basically the same but verbatim the tiniest tick better. Still not gonna do it west of the bay.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If these 12z runs come to fruition, I think you'll do pretty well up there with the elevation factor and forever pivoting bands on the backside of this thing. I like 5-10" for your hood 

I had to give book club an update this morning and started at 4-6” with caveats it could be higher if it’s colder during day tomorrow and we get under bands tomorrow night. Don’t need them kicking me out if book club for being wrong lol