Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[jayyy]

Gfs better gimme summa that good shit it’s smoking on

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, CAPE said:

Work in progress. Now that it has figured out the key upper level features that the GFS has had for many runs now(that no other model has depicted) it should get better. We shall see.

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain.  The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination.  There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table.  Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Im not sure I remember a big favorable eps shift like this in a while…let’s get another at 0z. 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah but sometimes you score a win even with climo. 

IF we had some real cold air. And IF there wasnt a monster kicker to the NW....Maybe. 

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain.  The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination.  There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table.  Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

At least we got something to track! 

[wxmeddler]

Much more negatively tilted on the 18z EPS / AIEPS. Still goes to our east / too late to curl into the coast, but a concession.

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Significant step towards the GFS imo-

What the fuck. I was doing homework the last hour and played the 18z euro and my jaw dropped. It did the thing where it elongates the NS like the GFS. In my opinion it made an absolutely massive shift at the H5. It just failed to really capture the SW wave and get it as far west. While I think that is still a pie in the sky dream it just went from impossible to "extremely improbable". 

[Climate175]

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

For sure, plus that will definitely bounce around a bit. My jackpot comment was in jest, referring to less than 1” in my neighborhood lol. Verbatim it’s a heartbreaker.

A little shift east is all you need to get the goods. 

[WxUnit]

Check out the precipitation shift between 12z and 18z on the EPS. As PSU mentioned, right here it looks like the coastal being closer helps to intensify the inverted trough. I'm trying to keep expectations in check but it sure feels good to be back in the game for this one!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

Did it get new data ingested? Wild shift even for the op basically at NAM range. 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

big improvement with lows

Yeah. But without an inverted trough none of us (except the Eastern Shore) get snow from those LP positions. Although that aligns really well with the past decade. So there is that. 

[bncho]

EPS

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Lol was he even alive? And was that a total model failure? I mean obviously tech was what it was (I was in HS). But I do remember the freak out at the 11pm news. 

It was awesome. I stayed up to watch it…it came in like a wall right off the Atlantic. The models were on vacation.

[SnowenOutThere]

Whos ready for the biggest long range NAM hallucination run of the winter!

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

You must not have been here for that one lol. Light snow was predicted at the 5pm newscasts. 6-10” was on the ground by the morning.

Ummm… He was minus 11 . 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What the fuck. I was doing homework the last hour and played the 18z euro and my jaw dropped. It did the thing where it elongates the NS like the GFS. In my opinion it made an absolutely massive shift at the H5. It just failed to really capture the SW wave and get it as far west. While I think that is still a pie in the sky dream it just went from impossible to "extremely improbable". 

That's not all it did though. As I said in my reply to your post earlier, that ball of vorticity that comes from the tail end of that vorticity ribbon(that previously was unique to the GFS) then phases back into the ribbon!  IMO that impacts the character of the trough and the strength and proximity of the low to the coast.. Euro is not there quite yet so the next few runs will be very interesting.

[Climate175]

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, CAPE said:

That's not all it did though. As I said in my reply to your post earlier, that ball of vorticity that comes from the tail end of that vorticity ribbon(that previously was unique to the GFS) then phases back into the ribbon!  IMO that impacts the character of the trough and the strength and proximity of the low to the coast.. Euro is not there quite yet so the next few runs will be very interesting.

Yep. I personally just focused on the NS and SW interaction as that's where my pay grade is (and without that going right we don't have a storm) but you're right. It was a major concession on pretty much every feature. 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. But without an inverted trough none of us (except the Eastern Shore) get snow from those LP positions. Although that aligns really well with the past decade. So there is that. 

The low position helps too. The low came west, so did the trough. 

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep. I personally just focused on the NS and SW interaction as that's where my pay grade is (and without that going right we don't have a storm) but you're right. It was a major concession on pretty much every feature. 

You are doing fine with the analysis. The improvements have not gone unnoticed.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Meanwhile, at ECMWF HQ:

The view after the 18z Euro

[Quasievil]

I'm not really sure what's going on around here, did the Euro cave a bit to the GFS? 

[mappy]

Just now, Quasievil said:

I'm not really sure what's going on around here, did the Euro cave a bit to the GFS? 

It showed a similar, but not as extreme, solution. Yes. 

[LordBaltimore]

What's that guys? Do I hear CAVING from Euro's room?

 

[mappy]

FYI, yall… if euro continues to show similar solutions tomorrow and things are a go, we will hide banter. So enjoy it now ITT

[Interstate]

I would not be celebrating yet. I will wait to see if the 0z GFS holds. I am still 100% on board. I never wavered. 

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Inverted troughs are jumpy. Still has that feel of a rug pull east for the west guys. I think this has always been the risk, just seeing extra precip is good. Of note, 18z Euro also likes to play with our emotions. It did back with the Carolina storm.. Let's see models actually trend. 

Mr pessimist here. 

We don't want to depend on that feature. There will be a narrow area of heavier precip, and more have nots than haves. We want.. fucking need, something close to what the GFS is advertising.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, mappy said:

FYI, yall… if euro continues to show similar solutions tomorrow and things are a go, we will hide banter. So enjoy it now ITT

I love the sentiment but I think this storm should be a special case. I mean IF this continues to trend well it'll be the first storm in 10 years that trends well inside day 5 and of all possible storms to do so it's some weird coastal miller B during February with a bad airmass. This is the people's storm 

[mappy]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I love the sentiment but I think this storm should be a special case. I mean IF this continues to trend well it'll be the first storm in 10 years that trends well inside day 5 and of all possible storms to do so it's some weird coastal miller B during February with a bad airmass. This is the people's storm 

Nahh