Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Its over the upper midwest at 45 that it diverges.  GFS phases in the Canadian SW to the SS one, every other model leaves them separate.

where is that weenie thing about the GFS being better in the northern stream in Ninas....

[Shad]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Alot of the time DT makes himself look awful, he doesn't need the GFS's help 

Hes so awful.....my favorite is when he posts that people are messaging him about giving him Tips and Starbuck cards....what a clown.

[stormtracker]

Meanwhile, at ECMWF HQ:

[Shad]

AI GFS looked to be an improvement.   Not sure if anybody has Snow maps from it?

[Jake Wx]

Just now, Shad said:

AI GFS looked to be an improvement.   Not sure if anybody has Snow maps from it?

@bnchohad a snow map for it 

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No, it's not as wet as 12z...but it's a big hit

its wet enough for you me and marcus

[Ji]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

@bnchohad a snow map for it 

 

Just now, Jake Wx said:

@bnchohad a snow map for it 

who's bncho?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Shad said:

AI GFS looked to be an improvement.   Not sure if anybody has Snow maps from it?

 GFSAI was a big improvement.   QPF jumped !

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not a met but imo it’s a relatively delicate and not even that major of an interaction that have a huge impact down the road. Yea we notice it because we’re looking for it but if this interplay between those two SW wasn’t directly causing this dichotomy with a possible HECS we would never notice!   If we simplify it it’s putting more energy into the lead wave in a two wave interaction and it’s a delicate balance where just enough tips the scale and you get a cascading effect later.
 

That said it’s obviously still likely the GFS is the wrong one. However it does handle NS features a bit better. When it does rarely beat the euro it’s in situations like this. But I can’t remember a single example when it was totally all alone like this at this range and won.  That said some stuff did make mini step towards it so I guess anything’s possible. But I wouldn’t bet anything I care about on it. 

Haha, I was going to say, isn't there some general "rule" (weenie rule) that the GFS supposedly handles NS energy better?  But in all seriousness, obviously these last two ridiculous solutions are simply not going to occur (we wish, but let's be realistic here!).  It's out on its own in terms of that extreme.  However, I wonder if we can hedge toward thinking that maybe a less than perfectly ideal interplay between the two SWs can STILL get us a pretty damned decent event.  Going back to those images you showed before with the IVT setup, it seems that while some model runs shifted it east, it was also fairly wide?  Wonder if that could also be a good thing.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Has that same "dual low" position as 12Z.  In the 12Z run, it kind of jumped to the closer one along the coast.  Where does it go this time?  Also, not sure if other models had that dual structure, and not totally sure what's causing it other than something with the phasing.

I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance. 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

You rang!

You know East is good.  If this continued west it would be in the bay and we would be fooked here unless it stacked.  Not the end of this story for sure.  

[Scraff]

Let’s party peeps! We getting a fricking blizzard. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

 

who's bncho?

Stands for bunch of nachos.  Love the nachos and love them in bunches.  So I love the bncho

[Ji]

i could see where a slight adjustment in the northern stream could take the GFS from 20 inches to 4 in one run....but that could also happen inversely with the euro?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You know East is good.  If this continued west it would be in the bay and we would be fooked here unless it stacked.  Not the end of this story for sure.  

Agree

[Interstate]

You can see that PSU was trolling by keep posting maps about the IVT during the whole PBP of the GFS.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance. 

Yea, this run was a half step towards other guidance. Let’s face it, the euro model suite is all that matters at this range. Need that to shift west very soon.

[stormtracker]

My flight leaves at 12:35pm tomorrow. I need this resolved by 12z.  I've already told the bf that if other models hop on board by 11:30, I'm going right the fuck back home.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

its wet enough for you me and marcus

This is another case where it’s showing degradation of snowfall we don’t even think about. The track of the 6z run reminded me a lot of a storm in the 60s that gave the Delmarva 20-28” but also have my area 20” and I was wondering why that run only had 10” here. Ya know how. I went back and looked at the coop data from the past storm. Delmarva got 24” from 2.5qpf. My area got 20” from 1.2 qpf. The gfs run was showing me getting 10” from 1.2qpf. Because it was so damn warm at the surface!  2 degrees colder (which is about what it was then) and it would have been 15-20” here from ratios!  Usually further west makes up for less QPF with ratios but not if it’s 33 degrees!

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

My flight leaves at 12:35pm tomorrow. I need this resolved by 12z.  I've already told the bf that if other models hop on board by 11:30, I'm going right the fuck back home.

We need you here or we will be running with scissors and pissing our pants. 

[bncho]

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

My flight leaves at 12:35pm tomorrow. I need this resolved by 12z.  I've already told the bf that if other models hop on board by 11:30, I'm going right the fuck back home.

My man, it's about time you had some balls. Let's do this. 

[Jake Wx]

Last frame of the 18z ukie

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is another case where it’s showing degradation of snowfall we don’t even think about. The track of the 6z run reminded me a lot of a storm in the 60s that gave the Delmarva 20-28” but also have my area 20” and I was wondering why that run only had 10” here. Ya know how. I went back and looked at the coop data from the past storm. Delmarva got 24” from 2.5qpf. My area got 20” from 1.2 qpf. The gfs run was showing me getting 10” from 1.2qpf. Because it was so damn warm at the surface!  2 degrees colder (which is about what it was then) and it would have been 15-20” here from ratios!  Usually further west makes up for less QPF with ratios but not if it’s 33 degrees!

not sure what you want...33 degrees is still way below normal for this time of year. We have had plenty of cold this winter. You know that. The issue is we cant combine the precip and the cold so maybe thats the climate change normal. Cold and precip cant exist together in the Mid Atlantic

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

Big improvement 

[JB Fins]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

We need you here or we will be running with scissors and pissing our pants. 

Or running without pants and pissing scissors...either way, it's not good.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

Hmm. Is that better than 12z?

[Ji]

Just now, bncho said:

say what??

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is another case where it’s showing degradation of snowfall we don’t even think about. The track of the 6z run reminded me a lot of a storm in the 60s that gave the Delmarva 20-28” but also have my area 20” and I was wondering why that run only had 10” here. Ya know how. I went back and looked at the coop data from the past storm. Delmarva got 24” from 2.5qpf. My area got 20” from 1.2 qpf. The gfs run was showing me getting 10” from 1.2qpf. Because it was so damn warm at the surface!  2 degrees colder (which is about what it was then) and it would have been 15-20” here from ratios!  Usually further west makes up for less QPF with ratios but not if it’s 33 degrees!

what are you in your 60s?

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

My man, it's about time you had some balls. Let's do this. 

About time?  I'm the boss over here. <peeks over shoulder>