Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Weather Will]

Off to a bad start...WB 12K NAM at 7am Sunday is a dud; nothing like the GFS at 18Z.

[Ji]

Off to a bad start...WB 12K NAM at 7am Sunday is a dud; nothing like the GFS at 18Z.

You are off to a bad start. Why are you posting a short range model 84 hours out ?

[wasnow215]

This-12K NAM pretty much useless at 24 hours- let alone 84 hours. 

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Off to a bad start...WB 12K NAM at 7am Sunday is a dud; nothing like the GFS at 18Z.

Go to bed 

[bncho]

ICON looks similar to 12z

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

why are we not talking early March yet. I am seeing 1993,1958,2014 stuff lol

I’m starting to crave another Feb 87. That storm had elite, top tier rates that overcame a mild day leading into it. 1-3” was forecasted and we ended up with a foot.

[LP08]

Icon looked a little worse at h5 than 18z.  Further east

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON looks similar to 12z

0Z ICON is east of 18Z.

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

You are off to a bad start. Why are you posting a short range model 84 hours out ?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

I’m starting to crave another Feb 87. That storm had elite, top tier rates that overcame a mild day leading into it. 1-3” was forecasted and we ended up with a foot.

remember that forecasting skill has increased by like 4 days since then... Day 1 was about as accurate as day 5 is now

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

You are off to a bad start. Why are you posting a short range model 84 hours out ?

BS Ji. There should be something on the map. 

 

[Weather Will]

RDPS is running; first big test of 0Z.

[LP08]

Rgem looks good to my eyes.  

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

This-12K NAM pretty much useless at 24 hours- let alone 84 hours. 

Yeah and certainly not when the globals don't even have a handle on how the waves interact

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah and certainly not when the globals don't even have a handle on how the waves interact

Not a bad post from you.

[Jebman]

C'mon guys, Reel this one home!

[CAPE]

The 12 Km NAM is putrid. Garbage. It should be legacy already. Stop. Next legit run is the GFS. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not a bad post from you.

Slow progress, lol

[Ji]

RDPS is running; first big test of 0Z.

No it’s not. It’s a garbage model

[Weather Will]

0Z RDPS looked a lot better than the NAM. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

No it’s not. It’s a garbage model

Doesn't the CMC usually follow the RDPS?

I do agree with you that until the EURO shows something who cares about the other models.

 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z RDPS looked a lot better than the NAM. 

RDPS vs NAM

[Weather Will]

While we wait for the garbage GFS to run, in all seriousness, would anyone think a big storm is really coming until the EURO is on board?

[snowfan]

Poor will. This is like some old school back alley jumping after school. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

While we wait for the garbage GFS to run, in all seriousness, would anyone think a big storm is really coming until the EURO is on board?

 

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

While we wait for the garbage GFS to run, in all seriousness, would anyone think a big storm is really coming until the EURO is on board?

I think the storm is a lock and the Euro will fold.

[87storms]

21 minutes ago, Nomz said:

remember that forecasting skill has increased by like 4 days since then... Day 1 was about as accurate as day 5 is now

I wouldn’t go that far lol, but it has improved. I can recall numerous winter storm watches and warnings growing up that ended up being a bust for a variety of reasons (downsloping, temps, etc.). Models didn’t seem to handle the impacts of terrain very well.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

While we wait for the garbage GFS to run, in all seriousness, would anyone think a big storm is really coming until the EURO is on board?

We are a cursed bunch. This time last year the script was flipped, and the Euro was the snowy solution right before its brutal cave. Maybe psu's simulation idea is correct. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, Interstate said:

I think the storm is a lock and the Euro will fold.

Hope you're right!  

[Weather Will]

Is there anything to the LA rain rule?  Forecast is for heavy rain there Th.   Usually that means a big east coast storm is coming?