Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[WeatherGeek2025]

If Euro AI doesn't go way west or at least 50-75 miles west i'd be a little pissed! 

[wasnow215]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Eastern VA gonna get destroyed

Is there some kind of an agreement now no one in this thread is allowed to use the word Richmond, lol

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Now it’s going to spit out 6”. 

It’s the euro.  We toss.  

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Is there some kind of an agreement now no one in this thread is allowed to use the word Richmond, lol

I think he meant the part of VA that's on the Delmarva 

[SnowenOutThere]

36 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@mappy lol. Yes, that's over 4" in the southern portion of the bay. Happens all the time in February.

An underrated aspect of the high end scenario runs is how this type of storm would go a decent way in starting to alleviate the drought our area is experiencing. Additionally, I feel that its been a while since we've seen a true photogenic paste bomb storm which sticks to everything. Hopefully this can be the one.

[CAPE]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Meanwhile the AI gfs says enjoy your weak inverted trough. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

I’ll take east any day.  You get 30 inches I’m good.  Gimme a foot.  With wind. I will die a happy man. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

who cares about your blend

Damn Ji ,tell us how u really feel!

[CAPE]

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I think he meant the part of VA that's on the Delmarva 

Fair enough! I was just messing around. Another thing I will say though why is it so easy for people to dismiss big outputs but equally not dismiss nothingness? It's always been strange to me

[mitchnick]

18z Gefs snowfall look a lot like 12z Ukie ensembles I posted earlier.

 

[AlexD1990]

If only it wasn't the GFS and didn't...you know ..suck.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs snowfall look a lot like 12z Ukie ensembles I posted earlier.

Not bad at all!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Big jump in number of members with at least an inch of snow. Up from 30-40% to 60-70% 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Big jump in number of members with at least an inch of snow. Up from 30-40% to 60-70% 

Nicee!! I like seeing more than 50%!!

[CAPE]

Snippet form Mount Holly mid afternoon AFD-

KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest model guidance suggests the region will
be on the northwestern edge of a potential storm forecast to be
just offshore on Sunday and Monday.

Model guidance continues to show low pressure moving off the
Southeast or Mid-atlantic coast Saturday night, and then
deepening a few hundred miles off the Mid-atlantic coast Sunday
into early Monday before moving eastward on Monday and out to
sea. There is a large amount of uncertainty as to how impactful
this system will be to the local region with some guidance
suggesting light to moderate snowfall in the New Jersey-
Philadelphia metro-Delaware regions, and other guidance showing
no snow at all over the entire local area. That being said, as
it stands currently, areas south and east of Philadelphia still
have the greatest potential for impacts from any snow and wind
Sunday afternoon into early Monday.

In the wake of this storm, a much colder air mass looks to
settle into our region early next week. High temperatures
probably do not get out of the 30s both Monday and Tuesday

[LeesburgWx]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Does Boston just stay in the purple on these maps all winter long?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI

[stormtracker]

Slighter more amp'd so far than 12z.  But nothing to get excited about....so far

[stormy]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

who cares about your blend

Just settle down.   People have been asking who don't really care about You. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, got to 69 (hehe) and the difference is more evident out front.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI euro more of the inverted trough look with main coastal long gone.  Nothing like GFS. 

[stormtracker]

Better run.  Not good as the GFS, but trending the right way.

[Ji]

WB 18Z EURO AI

Gross

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI compared to 18Z GFS at 1pm Sunday

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

WB 18Z AI compared to 18Z GFS at 1pm Sunday

So…

The gfs looks better

[stormtracker]

It's vastly improved..more precip by far than 12z, BUT STILL NOT LIKE THE GFS.  I don't have snow maps, but there will be increase in snow amounts, but probably nothing earth shattering

[wasnow215]

I don't understand why we treat any of the AI's at this point like we do the traditional models. In their short history have they consistently verified? Seems like to me they give more of an "idea".

 

Mods move to banter if need be. 

[snowfan]

Does Will get a TB of space for images?? Wth.