“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

I think I am coming to terms with likely being in between the best zones - I’ll take a 16” anyday

Where are you? I get less jackpot needy if I already have a great pack...I would be fine with like 16", too.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are you? I get less jackpot needy if I already have a great pack...I would be fine with like 16", too.

West Concord currently

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this?

It’s a definite possibility if we end up training convection into the CCB. Some of the models have that April ‘97 look with that feature. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

West Concord currently

You have a decent shot of getting deformed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a definite possibility if we end up training convection into the CCB. Some of the models have that April ‘97 look with that feature. 

It looks like I get into the N fringe of that, just as this area did in '97.

[78Blizzard]

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim.  You can't make this stuff up.

[MarkO]

I feel like it's my birthday and I'm going to Red Lobster, maybe Mr. Happy's for a lap dance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim.  You can't make this stuff up.

Watch....there is going to be a slamming band right where the GFS has like 8" of snow.

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch....there is going to be a slamming band right where the GFS has like 8" of snow.

10-13" us

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

10-13" us

I'd say 16" if someone put a gun to my head.

[CCHurricane]

+10% juice relative to 18z AI-EURO, essentially back to 12z output. 

[Snowcrazed71]

I was looking back on Nemo from 2013 right before the storm got going. The GFS was showing the storm well SE of where it actually was on radar.  Point is, when we're getting this close, accuracy on the major models isn't really as important. 

If I do remember correctly, I was watching Joe fury the night before talking about some the NAM output for snowfall accumulations, and Joe was saying he's not sure he believes what it was projecting. We all know where we ended up in Connecticut. So the Nam snowfall projections wound up coming true.

[ma blizzard]

bullish

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CCHurricane said:

+10% juice relative to 18z AI-EURO, essentially back to 12z output. 

Yea, this thing is what it is IMHO....it's been stable since the NW trend ended like 30 hours ago...except for the GFS, which I toss right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

bullish

Does that get further north on subsequent frames?

[ma blizzard]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that get further north on subsequent frames?

thats the last frame it only goes out 48 hours 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that get further north on subsequent frames?

Full run is even better 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that get further north on subsequent frames?

This goes further north on subsequent frames…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Full run is even better 

Bun me up and show me

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro NW again .. widespread 12-18”+

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This goes further north on subsequent frames…

Yea steady diet of weenie enemas for days now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro NW again .. widespread 12-18”+

Called that

[CCHurricane]

7 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

+10% juice relative to 18z AI-EURO, essentially back to 12z output. 

00z OP-EURO showing the same +10% QPF bump 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro NW again .. widespread 12-18”+

Yep. Looks damn good. Chips fall mode now. 

[78Blizzard]

Even the Euro track is a bit further north at 36 hr and further west at 42 hr than the 12z run.  Don't have access to the 18z run. Qpf enhanced from the 12z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Full run is even better 

That gives me about exactly the 16" I just guessed to tittie twisting tiger.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Called that

The situation feels clarified now… serve is held

[Henry's Weather]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Full run is even better 

Instant buy… jesus christ, and the winds. Woah

[ma blizzard]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That gives me about exactly the 16" I just guess to tittie twisting tiger.

same time frame as the image I posted just 2 different products .. ensemble mean vs ensemble probability matched mean 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Full run is even better 

First time I’ve ever seen greys.