“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chip off the 'ole CoastalWx block.

He knows 

[Kitz Craver]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We knew. This is why the tenor folks can’t have it both ways. This followed almost the exact pattern we’ve seen every phantom coastal this winter. 

I’m pissed I bit. When this started I was on the buyer beware train. When all but the Euro trended towards a siggy hit I went in. Maybe it comes back to some degree

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI is a decent look too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Actually really good consensus now on the near miss. I expect this to end up close to reality, c0cktease runs notwithstanding.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks to the stupid wave thats going to hit CNE.

It's the fast flow again. This time the spacing sucked. Coastal tracks are becoming rarer due to CC. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks Cory…

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI is a decent look too.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like the snowy week is going to be 0 for 3 here. Sunday miss. Friday north, and today meh.

Ready for spring barring a march bomb 

It’s what we feared but predicted. Being right feels so wrong though. What could have been…

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's the fast flow again. This time the spacing sucked. Coastal tracks are becoming rarer due to CC. 

Did you mention this theory to Newfoundland?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Looks to be a classic blue baller

[dryslot]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that.

I did too, A day or so ago, But alas, The euro has the storm now, Whether it gets close enough remains to be seen, That last coastal was a COC tease and ineedsnow followed it right to the flemish cap.

[EastonSN+]

C+ winter potentially ending with a thud unless mid March delivers (MJO phase 7). 

April is the absolute worst month of the year (55 rain breezy).

 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

C+ winter potentially ending with a thud unless mid March delivers (MJO phase 7). 

April is the absolute worst month of the year (55 rain breezy).

 

55? I'd take that in April

Try 42 instead 

[Kitz Craver]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks to be a classic blue baller

Hate those.

[Hazey]

15 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Did you mention this theory to Newfoundland?

Actually it's this theory that favors them. Flow fast enough to screw the east coast but gets its act together just in time to clobber St. John's. There just in the midst of a 2 footer as we speak and this one looks to do the same. When you're on the heater, you're on the heater. 

[NSwx]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Actually it's this theory that favors them. Flow fast enough to screw the east coast but gets its act together just in time to clobber St. John's. There just in the midst of a 2 footer as we speak and this one looks to do the same. When you're on the heater, you're on the heater. 

This one does looks somewhat promising for us here in NS if things hold similar to what we are seeing now. 

[ORH_wxman]

Need a bump NW at 12z. 06z euro suite including skynet was def a bit better. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs ai is now the furthest se lol. What a shitty machine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Actually it's this theory that favors them. Flow fast enough to screw the east coast but gets its act together just in time to clobber St. John's. There just in the midst of a 2 footer as we speak and this one looks to do the same. When you're on the heater, you're on the heater. 

So why does the fast flow allow phasing in that area relative to other spots?? I have my response, but interest in hearing your's....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So why does the fast flow allow phasing in that area relative to other spots?? I have my response, but interest in hearing your's....

This is nothing to do with fast flow, it’s just a messed up block, pressing south.

[CoastalWx]

We had a ton of coastal storms until recently. It was always due to CC more moisture etc. Now we have a darth of them and we still blame CC. I’m all for CC and it has a fingerprint in our weather…..but I feel this is an easy scapegoat with recent confirmation bias. 

[dendrite]

Too bad Will Campbell couldn’t perform like that decaying block still can.

But loop west of the MS over the next 4 days. H5 is a mess out there. There’s still a lot to iron out.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad Will Campbell couldn’t perform like that decaying block still can.

But loop west of the MS over the next 4 days. H5 is a mess out there. There’s still a lot to iron out.

It’s a disaster. I love the s/w moving SE to NW into Canada lol. wtf is that?

[Hazey]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So why does the fast flow allow phasing in that area relative to other spots?? I have my response, but interest in hearing your's....

Unknown. I don't have the skill to figure that out. I just call it as i see it and that's basically what has been happening. Nick might have answer for that if he's still at YYT and lurks here. Rodney Barney (ne.weather days) would have some good insight. Shame he doesn't post here. Too busy digging out of the 15 ft of snow Gander has received this winter...lol

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a disaster. I love the s/w moving SE to NW into Canada lol. wtf is that?

A lot going on. Just need the block to weaken a bit more/faster. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A lot going on. Just need the block to weaken a bit more/faster. 

I swear I’ve never seen something like that in my life.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot going on. Just need the block to weaken a bit more/faster. 

I’m literally playing this as I loop that and lmao. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Unknown. I don't have the skill to figure that out. I just call it as i see it and that's basically what has been happening. Nick might have answer for that if he's still at YYT and lurks here. Rodney Barney (ne.weather days) would have some good insight. Shame he doesn't post here. Too busy digging out of the 15 ft of snow Gander has received this winter...lol

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Actually it's this theory that favors them. Flow fast enough to screw the east coast but gets its act together just in time to clobber St. John's. There just in the midst of a 2 footer as we speak and this one looks to do the same. When you're on the heater, you're on the heater. 

Well it's more than just faster flow. It's more about competing influences that don't mesh together and a lot of that is due to multiple areas of forcing in the Pacific. 

We've also had a dearth of southern stream systems. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad Will Campbell couldn’t perform like that decaying block still can.

But loop west of the MS over the next 4 days. H5 is a mess out there. There’s still a lot to iron out.

Irony being @MJO812has been citing the decaying block as the reason we are going to get a big storm all week