“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dryslot]

18z EPS is SE of the 12z run too.

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Amped doesn’t have to mean tucked in.  It’s a more impactful storm at 18z just misses and is slightly east from 12z.. I’m more worried about euro still not biting .. However, every model has a powerful storm that bombs from the Delmarva to somewhere around the benchmark besides the euro so we do have that. 

And ydy the ECMWF had *no* storm at all.  But all the other global models had a storm ydy.  Now the ECMWF has a storm, and the others are still on track for a sig E Coast snowstorm.

So what's w/ this excessive ECMWF praising, as if it is the buck stops w/ it?  Ever since Sandy in 2012, it has had this aura around it as if it is always right.  And I am not talking about model performance over time.  That's a smoothed avg.  I am talking about individual events, which are all different, so it's never one size fits all.

And we are talking an low pressure system that just gets going over NC around 12z Sun, so that's 4.5 days out still.

There is no good reason to throw in the towel yet b/c one model is not onboard.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'd be more concerned about the euro AI, which is a glancing blow

[CoastalWx]

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'd be more concerned about the euro AI, which is a glancing blow

As it stands right now.  How much time do we have for the proverbial "CoastalWx TICK" N trend?  LOL.

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Exactly what I had in mind haha

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And ydy the ECMWF had *no* storm at all.  But all the other global models had a storm ydy.  Now the ECMWF has a storm, and the others are still on track for a sig E Coast snowstorm.

So what's w/ this excessive ECMWF praising, as if it is the buck stops w/ it?  Ever since Sandy in 2012, it has had this aura around it as if it is always right.  And I am not talking about model performance over time.  That's a smoothed avg.  I am talking about individual events, which are all different, so it's never one size fits all.

And we are talking an low pressure system that just gets going over NC around 12z Sun, so that's 4.5 days out still.

There is no good reason to throw in the towel yet b/c one model is no onboard.

The Euro is just another model . The problem is so many still give it so much weight based on how it performed 10+ years ago. It’s rarely correct anymore 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Does vortex work for scooter? Is he his father maybe? Whatever it is…he ACWATT. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Does vortex work for scooter? Is he his father maybe? Whatever it is…he ACWATT. 

I think there maybe a phasing attempt at some point.

[vortex95]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro is just another model . The problem is so many still give it so much weight based on how it performed 10+ years ago. It’s rarely correct anymore 

It's done some odd things recent years.  It used to be best w/ TCs, then not so good, as one example.  The tweaks and upgrades they do it it, it fixes some things, while it breaks other things.  It's a constant battle w/ models to try to improve them.  And it gets non-linear harder to keep a balance as they become more detailed and resolute!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Exactly what I had in mind haha

“If it whiffs…..it whiffs…”

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Does vortex work for scooter? Is he his father maybe? Whatever it is…he ACWATT. 

I have no idea what ACWATT means.  It is an AmrWx slang only thing???

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I have no idea what ACWATT means.  It is a AmrWx slang only thing???

All CoastalWx All The Time

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I have no idea what ACWATT means.  It is a AmrWx slang only thing???

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All CoastalWx All The Time

this

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Does vortex work for scooter? Is he his father maybe? Whatever it is…he ACWATT. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I have no idea what ACWATT means.  It is a AmrWx slang only thing???

All Coastal Wx All The Time…

Just teasing but every time I read a post of yours, you mention him. Did you meet on tinder maybe?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That being said way too much wailing and knashing of teeth for a day 6-7 storm that has great support for a big un regionally. You’ve been around long enough.. you know this is coming 

Is the great support in the room with us?

It’s a coin flip, at best. Some major players showing not much, and 18z moved decidedly in that direction 

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All CoastalWx All The Time

Now THAT is EPIC!  Fits him perfectly w/ his record # of posts on this site!

[vortex95]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All Coastal Wx All The Time…

Just teasing but every time I read a post of yours, you mention him. Did you meet on tinder maybe?

I worked w/ him at WSI for 10 years.  Ultimate uber snow weenie and the cross-talk/discussion we had on wx are legendary!

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

 

Are you saying he has tiny hands?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is the great support in the room with us?

It’s a coin flip, at best. Some major players showing not much, and 18z moved decidedly in that direction 

You’ve accomplished your goal . You’ve dragged Dryslot and Runaway and other good posters into your negative , everything sucks mentality 

[Baroclinic Zone]

This system is out in model purgatory land right now. Let’s see what we got when we’re down to 72-84hrs. No model has had any level of accuracy beyond this point this winter season.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I worked w/ him at WSI for 10 years.  Ultimate uber snow weenie and the cross-talk/discussion we had on wx are legendary!

Did you ever have light saber battles in bathroom or anything like that while discussing ?

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

“If it whiffs…..it whiffs…”

Drago pseudo-quote?  If this storm does not pan out, Scott will have to get into his car, rev the engine and burn rubber, blast "NO EASY WAY OUT," and vent his frustration, peppered by flashbacks to the good ol' days like March 31-April 1, 1997!

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I rather blog for a crack-whore's venereal disease.

You know, @Typhoon Tip stated earlier today that he needs to get laid, just sayin’

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve accomplished your goal . You’ve dragged Dryslot and Runaway and other good posters into your negative , everything sucks mentality 

As long as the machines look like this at H5 we’re in the game

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This system is out in model purgatory land right now. Let’s see what we got when we’re down to 72-84hrs. No model has had any level of accuracy beyond this point this winter season.

I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going.  I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs.

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you ever have light saber battles in bathroom or anything like that while discussing ?

No, his classic line when I would downplay an event, he'd always go, "WE'LL SEE!!!"

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve accomplished your goal . You’ve dragged Dryslot and Runaway and other good posters into your negative , everything sucks mentality 

I didn't say it was gone, Its still days away but today's trends have been less favorable, You still need to weigh the euro even if its been off, Still plenty of time left on this, Need to get past tomorrow and see where Saturday ends up first, Otherwise we follow the trends.