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2026 Severe Wx - General Thread


largetornado
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   Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
   northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
   around the base of the trough into western MO.  A deep surface low
   currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
   afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
   instability along the track of the low.  Very strong low-level shear
   and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
   fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
   (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
   eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI.  Perhaps the
   biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
   limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
   compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.
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