Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Lesson learned never to get excited for a storm 5 days out with a hostile pattern 

It's actually an increasingly favorable pattern for a storm. Amplification of the jet is increasing and things are slowing down just a little. That's as good as it gets going towards March & April. And there's still plenty of cold air to work with though I do think we will likely have a warmer stretch at some point soon. The cold is still cold enough.

WX/PT

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Once again the media jinxed another storm. Earlier today the media on TV were mentioning a possible major snowstorm this weekend. 

Mother nature doesn't care about me you the media Twitter nothing lol. That's so silly to say. Just cant be to invested outside 3 days. People buy into the hype that's all they're doing. Exposure 

[Franklin0529]

I'll keep looking until Thursday or Friday. CMC looks like crap too btw 

[MJO812]

The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough. The euro is most likely seeing that.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS doesn't have a storm lol

 

am i missing something 

Yes a lot. You get too caught up in a couple of operational runs and pretty snow maps. There's so much more to forecasting than that. Talk less and listen more and some day you may be a positive force contribution wise here. 

[nycsnow]

Over

[SACRUS]

2/18 00z GGEM

also a miss

 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Once again the media jinxed another storm. Earlier today the media on TV were mentioning a possible major snowstorm this weekend. 

Lee Goldberg didn't sound optimistic about a big snowstorm at all today. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

All the models wobble back and forth 4-5 days ahead of storm. Does nobody remember multiple global models taking Boxing Day out to sea 2-4 days prior to the event?

WX/PT

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Lee Goldberg didn't sound optimistic about a big snowstorm at all today. 

He was the only one. Well Steve D slso.

[jm1220]

My first post in this thread is a reminder this is still 4-5 days away. But no one should be shocked if another nice setup 4-5 days out turns to strung out/suppressed garbage. I’m done investing in these until we get some consistency within 100 hours. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

My first post in this thread is a reminder this is still 4-5 days away. But no one should be shocked if another nice setup 4-5 days out turns to strung out/suppressed garbage. I’m done investing in these until we get some consistency within 100 hours. 

Mediocre winter on the snow side Cold and dry don’t do anything. 3 years from now not gonna be like the winter of 25-26! lol

there was recon data ingested tonight clearly sampled something it didn’t like 

[mriceyman]

The cliff jumping for a 6 days out threat is wild


.

[Jt17]

The cliff jumping for a 6 days out threat is wild


.

It's 4.5 days out tbf but also still it's wild to be cliff jumping over weather.


.

[Franklin0529]

Gefs anyone??

[nycsnow]

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gefs anyone??

Pretty bad very few members n/w

[NEG NAO]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check back tomorrow guys. This could be the typical range where the models lose it.

Night

these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase or one too far away and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that 

yeah just a little south of 12z by 850 miles

[Jt17]

Pretty bad very few members n/w

Looks better at 114. Also, it is similar to 18z. 18z and 0z are way better than 6z GEFS back when GFS OP had a great storm. So take that fwiw.


.

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

The cliff jumping for a 6 days out threat is wild


.

the ensembles were never on board - no cliff to jump off of - lessons learned - use the ensembles past day 5 and discount the GFS OP especially - the Canadian doing the GFS nonsense was surprising yesterday and today at 12Z

[Franklin0529]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty bad very few members n/w

Thanks. She's slipping away. Check back in the morning 

[Wxbear25]

Far from over, but pretty much everything since the 12z Euro came out has trended less favorably

There are still a metric ton of features involved in this setup though, so to think we've seen the final solution is folly.

Does that mean it works out? No, but its far from throw in the towel territory yet

[mattinpa]

22 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

The cliff jumping for a 6 days out threat is wild


.

I’ve learned after all my time here that the models just can’t stay steady at this range as much as we want them to. We’ll track again tomorrow. 

[Nibor]

Every model run so far tonight other than the AI gfs shows the low over the lakes hang back longer and the trough flatter. Makes this a jumbled mess. 

[NEG NAO]

32 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

All the models wobble back and forth 4-5 days ahead of storm. Does nobody remember multiple global models taking Boxing Day out to sea 2-4 days prior to the event?

WX/PT

so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Every model run so far tonight other than the AI gfs shows the low over the lakes hang back longer and the trough flatter. Makes this a jumbled mess. 

Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too 

[NEG NAO]

this explains what happened on the GFS surface map looking at 500mb Vort

[NEG NAO]

This explains the Canadian change from 12Z to 0Z

[Wxoutlooksblog]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?

If I knew the answer to that. No the models know better than we humans do. But I will say that historically it's gone both ways. And it's also possible they'll bring back and less magnificent storm of 1-3,2-4, 3-6" or so or that we'll remain in the outer snowbands with a lighter/wetter snowfall. We need the ridge out west to stay stronger and leave enough room for this system to get wrapped up the way some of the models earlier depicted it. On most of the 00Z runs the top of the ridge was flattened making for a more progressive flatter trough in the east. As long as the AI models have this thing IMO it's a legitimate threat.

WX/PT