The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[MJO812]

On 2/27/2026 at 7:06 AM, bluewave said:

Just try being a little less triggered by me pointing how our winters have been changing as our climate has been warming. I am very happy how this winter has turned out as it matched one of my scenarios issued a while ago about a potential rebound winter coming after the series of duds that we had in recent years.

So far my guess that it would be a struggle to reach 50” in NYC has turned out to be correct. Notice that NYC, LGA, and JFK are all in the 43-45” range and places like EWR and ISP are over 50”. Also mentioned that ISP reached over 50” in 2017-2018 and that it would be easier for them to do it again in the future which happened this year.

Also pointed out how the banding effects with major benchmark snowstorms and the heat island contribute to  give areas east and west of NYC more snowfall. I also believe it’s related to the terrain effects in the NY Bight allowing a snowband over NNJ and across Long Island. I also said that we haven’t had a winter near 32° since 2014-2015. So I am happy that we finally got one this year.

But you will notice that we had 4 winters around 32° during the 2010s and 50”+ of snow and only 1 during the 2020s so far. So winters like this have been declining in recent years with how much warmers our winters have become.

Was also pointing out how after the 2015-2016 jump in winter temperatures it would be a challenge for our region to rival 1995-1996 snowfall, PA to see their all-time snowfall matched again like in 1993-1994, places around Detroit and the Great Lakes to match 2013-2014 snow and cold, DC to Philly to match 2009-2010 snowfall, and Boston to rival their 2014-2015 snowfall.

My guess why none of these locations could even come close with the extended cold this winter is due to how small the geographic area of the cold was during this winter. This was the first time a cold and snowy winter like this in the Northeast occurred against the background of one of the warmest CONUS winters and Northern Hemisphere winters. So it put those legacy winters out of reach due to how small an area was covered by the shrinking cold pool.

Since I am a big winter weather enthusiast, it would make me very happy for NYC to go over 50” before the season ends. By mentioning that it would be a challenge to reach 50” isn’t the same thing as saying impossible which I would never do. 

The reason that I even started this discussion years ago was due to the fact that at least in NYC, they need a winter near 32.0° as a prerequisite to reach 50” of snow. I also pointed out to you that this wasn’t the case for other stations outside the heat island.

So it’s necessary for NYC to average near 32.0° to have a shot at 50” but not always sufficient. The fact that we get fewer winters this cold in a warming climate shrinks the number of chances NYC gets to reach this winter milestone. 

We don’t really know how long we’ll have to wait again to see another winter this cold and snowy again since the last one was 11 years ago.

Instead of you misrepresenting others ideas, why don’t you try to issue some of your own. 

 

 

 

Last year was also a cold winter but this winter is on another level. Maybe we are turning the corner.