donsutherland1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 The final precipitation for NYC was 1.92". The NBM came closest while many of the global models, especially the ECMWF and UKMET badly underforecast the precipitation. The QPF and snowfall amounts were trimmed further by 6z on February 22. Some of the social media "forecasters" chased the models into a dead-end and missed the much larger magnitude of snowfall. As noted previously, social media (and increasingly TV) isn't a good source of credible weather information. Anyone can play forecaster where meteorological knowledge is superficial, hype reigns and verification is non-existent. A potent clue that the "low-balled" idea was a bad one rest in the storm's forecast dynamics. Explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway. The region experienced a top-tier blizzard. Newark experienced its first-ever case of two consecutive days with 10.0" or above snowfall: February 22: 10.1"; February 23: 17.1". Records go back to May 1843. In terms of verification, I had several large errors (4" or more outside of the forecast range), as the snowfall was far more intense in Islip and Providence than I had forecast. That intense banding was likely somewhere on Long Island and Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts was not the issue. Placement of the banding was the issue for me. Even with today's mesoscale guidance, the placement of banding often isn't possible until the storm is underway and the banding is developing/has developed. The NWS did a terrific job in its forecasting. Mount Holly's, Taunton's, and Upton's discussions and forecasts were outstanding in advance of the storm and throughout the storm. Finally, the blizzard lifted winter 2025-2026 into a Top 25 place for New York City where records go back to Winter 1869-1870. Additional snowfall would lock in a Top 25-Top 30 ranking. 11 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Can someone please tell me what happened with the RGEM though? I was tracking it all Sunday into Sunday night. It busted dry everywhere, and we’re talking runs while the storm is happening. It almost looked like a glitch. Its hires version did better. Just for example here was the rgem/hires rgem 6z run for MA/RI. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I thought my 16-18” measurements were off when I saw ISP’s almost 30” report, but I’m over here by ISP now and you can see the difference, the piles and drifts are generally much larger. Very difficult storm to measure, my numbers could still be off, I’ve seen similar totals reported close by, but also higher totals nearby. Very high impact storm either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Already down to 10 to 12" snowpack. Amazing how the February sun and content of the snow is so different this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: I thought my 16-18” measurements were off when I saw ISP’s almost 30” report, but I’m over here by ISP now and you can see the difference, the piles and drifts are generally much larger. Very difficult storm to measure, my numbers could still be off, even though I’ve seen similar totals reported close by. Very high impact storm either way. Crazy how widespread the 20"+ was with this storm in Suffolk. You can also see of areas around ISP with similar totals. 0310 PM 02/23 Cocorahs ...Suffolk County... Central Islip 31.0 in 0140 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter 1 NNW East Islip 30.0 in 0140 PM 02/23 Fire Dept/Rescue North Patchogue 30.0 in 0135 PM 02/23 Public 1 SW Babylon 29.5 in 1124 AM 02/23 Amateur Radio Islip 29.1 in 0100 PM 02/23 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW Holbrook 29.0 in 1200 PM 02/23 Public 1 W Nesconset 28.8 in 1243 PM 02/23 1 W Shirley Airport 28.5 in 0119 PM 02/23 Public Bay Shore 28.2 in 1200 PM 02/23 NWS Employee Montauk 28.1 in 1230 PM 02/23 Public 2 N Medford 27.8 in 0300 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter 2 SE East Farmingdale 27.5 in 0330 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter Remsenburg-Speonk 27.5 in 1013 AM 02/23 Public Fort Salonga 1.5 SSE 27.2 in 0230 PM 02/23 COCORAHS Orient Point 26.5 in 0300 PM 02/23 COOP 1 SSE Quogue 26.0 in 0934 AM 02/23 Public 1 NE Southampton 26.0 in 0250 PM 02/23 Public 2 NNW Islip 25.3 in 0221 PM 02/23 Public 2 NNW Lindenhurst 25.0 in 1139 AM 02/23 Fire Dept/Rescue 2 ENE Shinnecock Hills 25.0 in 1114 AM 02/23 Bay Shore 24.7 in 1230 PM 02/23 COCORAHS Lindenhurst 24.3 in 0300 PM 02/23 Public 4 WSW Davis Park 24.2 in 0200 PM 02/23 Public Babylon 24.0 in 1242 PM 02/23 Amateur Radio 2 NNW Ridge 24.0 in 1000 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter 2 NW Southampton 24.0 in 0911 AM 02/23 Public 1 NNE Islandia 23.5 in 0100 PM 02/23 Public Mattituck 23.3 in 0130 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter 2 E Flanders 23.0 in 0137 PM 02/23 Public 1 ESE Hauppauge 23.0 in 0330 PM 02/23 Public 1 S Islip Terrace 23.0 in 1130 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Islip Terrace 0.5 W 23.0 in 0900 AM 02/23 COCORAHS 1 NE Lake Ronkonkoma 23.0 in 1104 AM 02/23 NWS Employee 2 SW Middle Island 23.0 in 1014 AM 02/23 Selden 1.6 ESE 23.0 in 0130 PM 02/23 COCORAHS West Islip 22.8 in 0200 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter Manorville 22.0 in 0205 PM 02/23 Public 1 SW Shelter Island 21.1 in 1000 AM 02/23 Amateur Radio 1 SE East Northport 21.0 in 0200 PM 02/23 Public 2 ENE Ridge 20.7 in 0124 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter Oakdale 20.5 in 0200 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter 3 WNW Riverhead 20.2 in 0630 PM 02/23 NWS Employee 1 ESE East Patchogue 20.0 in 0300 PM 02/23 NWS Employee Nesconset 20.0 in 0940 AM 02/23 COCORAHS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Already down to 10 to 12" snowpack. Amazing how the February sun and content of the snow is so different this time around since my dogs got used to walking on top of the other snow pack, they thought they could do the same this time, with disastrous results....poodle hair is like velcro for snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The final precipitation for NYC was 1.88". The NBM came closest while many of the global models, especially the ECMWF and UKMET badly underforecast the precipitation. The QPF and snowfall amounts were trimmed further by 6z on February 22. Some of the social media "forecasters" chased the models into a dead-end and missed the much larger magnitude of snowfall. As noted previously, social media (and increasingly TV) isn't a good source of credible weather information. Anyone can play forecaster where meteorological knowledge is superficial, hype reigns and verification is non-existent. A potent clue that the "low-balled" idea was a bad one rest in the storm's forecast dynamics. Explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway. The region experienced a top-tier blizzard. In terms of verification, I had several large errors (4" or more outside of the forecast range), as the snowfall was far more intense in Islip and Providence than I had forecast. That intense banding was likely somewhere on Long Island and Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts was not the issue. Placement of the banding was the issue for me. Even with today's mesoscale guidance, the placement of banding often isn't possible until the storm is underway and the banding is developing/has developed. The NWS did a terrific job in its forecasting. Mount Holly's, Taunton's, and Upton's discussions and forecasts were outstanding in advance of the storm and throughout the storm. Finally, the blizzard lifted winter 2025-2026 into a Top 25 place for New York City where records go back to Winter 1869-1870. Additional snowfall would lock in a Top 25-Top 30 ranking. Don, since this winter in NYC has jumped into the top 25 rankings when you can would you mind posting the top 30 per your rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Already down to 10 to 12" snowpack. Amazing how the February sun and content of the snow is so different this time around Funny thing about depth and snowfall totals. Providence where they had 38 inches has a max depth yesterday of 21 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2/22-3 NE Blizzard: indices 1. PNA -1.2 2. AO +0.2 (neutral) 3. NAO +1.1 4-5. EPO/WPO: strongly negative 6. MJO inside circle both days 2/22: phase 3 2/23: phase 4 7. AAM: -0.9 (moderate La Niñaish) 8. SOI: +6 9. PDO: negative 10. QBO (30 mb): strongly negative 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Don, since this winter in NYC has jumped into the top 25 rankings when you can would you mind posting the top 30 per your rankings. Here you go: 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The final precipitation for NYC was 1.92". The NBM came closest while many of the global models, especially the ECMWF and UKMET badly underforecast the precipitation. The QPF and snowfall amounts were trimmed further by 6z on February 22. Some of the social media "forecasters" chased the models into a dead-end and missed the much larger magnitude of snowfall. As noted previously, social media (and increasingly TV) isn't a good source of credible weather information. Anyone can play forecaster where meteorological knowledge is superficial, hype reigns and verification is non-existent. A potent clue that the "low-balled" idea was a bad one rest in the storm's forecast dynamics. Explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway. The region experienced a top-tier blizzard. Newark experienced its first-ever case of two consecutive days with 10.0" or above snowfall: February 22: 10.1"; February 23: 17.1". Records go back to May 1843. In terms of verification, I had several large errors (4" or more outside of the forecast range), as the snowfall was far more intense in Islip and Providence than I had forecast. That intense banding was likely somewhere on Long Island and Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts was not the issue. Placement of the banding was the issue for me. Even with today's mesoscale guidance, the placement of banding often isn't possible until the storm is underway and the banding is developing/has developed. The NWS did a terrific job in its forecasting. Mount Holly's, Taunton's, and Upton's discussions and forecasts were outstanding in advance of the storm and throughout the storm. Finally, the blizzard lifted winter 2025-2026 into a Top 25 place for New York City where records go back to Winter 1869-1870. Additional snowfall would lock in a Top 25-Top 30 ranking. Don, you have 27.2" for EWR as the PNS was saying yesterday but the two daily climate reports and the CF6 total 25,2" (8.1 + 17.1) ... do you think the official data will change to the 27.2" value? It affects scoring in the contest to some extent. I tried 21.0 instead of 19.7 for NYC and that makes very little difference as I report in more detail in the contest thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Don, you have 27.2" for EWR as the PNS was saying yesterday but the two daily climate reports and the CF6 total 25,2" (8.1 + 17.1) ... do you think the official data will change to the 27.2" value? It affects scoring in the contest to some extent. I tried 21.0 instead of 19.7 for NYC and that makes very little difference as I report in more detail in the contest thread. Thanks. Roger, NWS updated the NOWdata to show 27.2" https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 i forgot how fast late season snow melts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i forgot how fast late season snow melts Yep doing alot of damage here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 So is Central Park just going to pretend that the 0.15" of liquid after their 1 PM observation of 19.7" didn't exist or... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: So is Central Park just going to pretend that the 0.15" of liquid after their 1 PM observation of 19.7" didn't exist or... I've emailed the NWS with the 2 pm PNS (showing the 1 pm measurement) and the additional precipitation that fell afterward. My concern is that by the time Central Park measured at 7 pm, the additional snowfall had melted as the temperature had risen above freezing. Therefore, Central Park measured no additional snowfall. They should take the final measurement once the snow stops falling. My guess is that they waited until 7 pm. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I've emailed the NWS with the 2 pm PNS (showing the 1 pm measurement) and the additional precipitation that fell afterward. My concern is that by the time Central Park measured at 7 pm, the additional snowfall had melted as the temperature had risen above freezing. Therefore, Central Park measured no additional snowfall. They should take the final measurement once the snow stops falling. My guess is that they waited until 7 pm. I sent an email too. It’s just unacceptable in my opinion but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I sent an email too. It’s just unacceptable in my opinion but oh well. We'll see what happens. Even a few tenths of an inch would have large ranking implications. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 More on the PNA that was -1.2 for this blizzard: 20 NYC 5”+ snows for Feb -ENSO since 1950: PNA 2/1/57 -1.2 2/7/67 +0.7 2/19/72 -0.5 2/23-4/72 -0.5 2/8/74 -0.2 2/12/75 -0.8 2/7/79 -1.1 2/19/79 -0.1 2/5-6/85 -0.8 2/2-3/96 +0.7 2/16/96 -0.4 2/22/01 +0.4 2/12/06 +1.7 2/22/08 +0.7 2/8-9/13 +0.4 2/3/14 -1.1 2/13-14/14 -1.0 2/9/17 +0.7 2/1/21 0.0 2/22-23/26 -1.2 —————— Median -0.2 Mean -0.2 -So, this latest one tied with 2/1/1957 for the lowest PNA for a Feb -ENSO NYC 5”+ snowstorm since 1950. -Note that DC, which hasn’t done as well as NYC with a -PNA for a similar category of storms, didn’t reach the 3”+ criteria that I use for them. @donsutherland1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Thanks Don, I note that CF6 has been adjusted already and shows the same (10.1+17.1) total of 27.2" for Newark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: We'll see what happens. Even a few tenths of an inch would have large ranking implications. This is going to be another Jan 2016 situation isnt it. A month from now itll change to 20.X. They definitely got more accumulating snow after 1pm but won't change it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Time to shovel out my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 https://x.com/i/status/2026316284682760389 Drone video from yesterday along the coast of Massachusetts. Pretty impressive. Photo from Westerly R.I. late yesterday afternoon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Analyzed lowest pressure was 966MB. Analyzed track was about 60 miles south of the BM. Full warm seclusion. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Two day storm totals. Liquid and snowfall. Click maps to enlarge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Already down to 10 to 12" snowpack. Amazing how the February sun and content of the snow is so different this time around Jan + 1-2" of sleet on top of 10-12" snowpack + arctic temps afterwards = glacier. This storm was late Feb with snow only and temps 29-31F and now 30s and 40s for highs. The only time I can recall a snow pack holding strong like a glacier in late winter was 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: i forgot how fast late season snow melts I'll take Dec-Jan snows over Feb-March any day. That's why 10-11 is still the modern day A+ champ to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 That is a serious plow that last pic!Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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