The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[GaWx]

2/22-3 NE Blizzard: indices

1. PNA -1.2

2. AO +0.2 (neutral)

3. NAO +1.1

4-5. EPO/WPO: strongly negative (waiting on verification)

6. MJO inside circle both days

2/22: phase 3 

2/23: either phase 3 or phase 2 (near border and thus waiting on verification)

7. AAM: -0.9 (moderate La Niñaish)

8. SOI: +6

9. PDO: negative

10. QBO (30 mb): strongly negative

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don, since this winter in NYC has jumped into the top 25 rankings when you can would you mind posting the top 30 per your rankings. 

Here you go:

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final precipitation for NYC was 1.92". The NBM came closest while many of the global models, especially the ECMWF and UKMET badly underforecast the precipitation.

The QPF and snowfall amounts were trimmed further by 6z on February 22. Some of the social media "forecasters" chased the models into a dead-end and missed the much larger magnitude of snowfall. As noted previously, social media (and increasingly TV) isn't a good source of credible weather information. Anyone can play forecaster where meteorological knowledge is superficial, hype reigns and verification is non-existent.

A potent clue that the "low-balled" idea was a bad one rest in the storm's forecast dynamics. Explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway.  

The region experienced a top-tier blizzard.

Newark experienced its first-ever case of two consecutive days with 10.0" or above snowfall: February 22: 10.1"; February 23: 17.1". Records go back to May 1843.

In terms of verification, I had several large errors (4" or more outside of the forecast range), as the snowfall was far more intense in Islip and Providence than I had forecast. That intense banding was likely somewhere on Long Island and Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts was not the issue. Placement of the banding was the issue for me. Even with today's mesoscale guidance, the placement of banding often isn't possible until the storm is underway and the banding is developing/has developed.

The NWS did a terrific job in its forecasting. Mount Holly's, Taunton's, and Upton's discussions and forecasts were outstanding in advance of the storm and throughout the storm.

Finally, the blizzard lifted winter 2025-2026 into a Top 25 place for New York City where records go back to Winter 1869-1870. Additional snowfall would lock in a Top 25-Top 30 ranking.

Don, you have 27.2" for EWR as the PNS was saying yesterday but the two daily climate reports and the CF6 total 25,2" (8.1 + 17.1) ... do you think the official data will change to the 27.2" value? It affects scoring in the contest to some extent. 

I tried 21.0 instead of 19.7 for NYC and that makes very little difference as I report in more detail in the contest thread. 

Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Don, you have 27.2" for EWR as the PNS was saying yesterday but the two daily climate reports and the CF6 total 25,2" (8.1 + 17.1) ... do you think the official data will change to the 27.2" value? It affects scoring in the contest to some extent. 

I tried 21.0 instead of 19.7 for NYC and that makes very little difference as I report in more detail in the contest thread. 

Thanks.

Roger,

NWS updated the NOWdata to show 27.2"

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[forkyfork]

i forgot how fast late season snow melts

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i forgot how fast late season snow melts

Yep doing alot of damage here

[andyhb]

So is Central Park just going to pretend that the 0.15" of liquid after their 1 PM observation of 19.7" didn't exist or...

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

So is Central Park just going to pretend that the 0.15" of liquid after their 1 PM observation of 19.7" didn't exist or...

I've emailed the NWS with the 2 pm PNS (showing the 1 pm measurement) and the additional precipitation that fell afterward. My concern is that by the time Central Park measured at 7 pm, the additional snowfall had melted as the temperature had risen above freezing. Therefore, Central Park measured no additional snowfall. They should take the final measurement once the snow stops falling. My guess is that they waited until 7 pm.

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I've emailed the NWS with the 2 pm PNS (showing the 1 pm measurement) and the additional precipitation that fell afterward. My concern is that by the time Central Park measured at 7 pm, the additional snowfall had melted as the temperature had risen above freezing. Therefore, Central Park measured no additional snowfall. They should take the final measurement once the snow stops falling. My guess is that they waited until 7 pm.

I sent an email too. It’s just unacceptable in my opinion but oh well. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I sent an email too. It’s just unacceptable in my opinion but oh well. 

We'll see what happens. Even a few tenths of an inch would have large ranking implications.

[GaWx]

More on the PNA that was -1.2 for this blizzard:
 

20 NYC 5”+ snows for Feb -ENSO since 1950: PNA

2/1/57 -1.2

2/7/67 +0.7

2/19/72 -0.5

2/23-4/72 -0.5

2/8/74 -0.2

2/12/75 -0.8

2/7/79 -1.1

2/19/79 -0.1

2/5-6/85 -0.8

2/2-3/96 +0.7

2/16/96 -0.4

2/22/01 +0.4

2/12/06 +1.7

2/22/08 +0.7

2/8-9/13 +0.4

2/3/14 -1.1

2/13-14/14 -1.0

2/9/17 +0.7

2/1/21 0.0

2/22-23/26 -1.2

——————

Median -0.2

Mean -0.2

 -So, this latest one tied with 2/1/1957 for the lowest PNA for a Feb -ENSO NYC 5”+ snowstorm since 1950.

-Note that DC, which hasn’t done as well as NYC with a -PNA for a similar category of storms, didn’t reach the 3”+ criteria that I use for them.

@donsutherland1

[Roger Smith]

Thanks Don, I note that CF6 has been adjusted already and shows the same (10.1+17.1) total of 27.2" for Newark. 

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We'll see what happens. Even a few tenths of an inch would have large ranking implications.

This is going to be another Jan 2016 situation isnt it. A month from now itll change to 20.X. 

They definitely got more accumulating snow after 1pm but won't change it?

[MJO812]

Time to shovel out my car