NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: What was it beefed up to? I’ll post once it’s done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 After a few hours of light rain/snow/mix with temps in the 35-36F range, the temp has dropped to 33F over the last hour or so and the snow intensity picked up then and accumulation just started on grass/cars/colder surfaces; paved surfaces might take another hour or so. If you're thinking of heading out now, you might want to reconsider - even if salted roads are ok for a few more hours, visibility is becoming an issue now. Also, here's our starting point for snowfall, as we still have 1-2" of snow/sleet on our property, which admittedly is on the shady side, but damn, that's about 35 days straight with <1" on the ground and that's going to go for at least another 7 days now. Sweet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 SREF - Awesome!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Big update, the LIRR will be shutting down on many branches this evening. That is the first big change to MTA service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Checking in from NC...anyone have a good webcam link to watch? https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html#google_vignette This is Montauk at the very end of Long Island, hasn't started yet but will be cranking later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Awesome! . All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Just need it to stick everywhere that radar in motion shows the storm beginning to wrap up (fill in, organize & strengthen). Moderate snow over central & southern NJ, Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obsJust a lot of support from better near term guidance showing the major global models were too east . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Gusts to 70mph... Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 122 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between 18 and 23 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. Isolated gusts up to 70 mph are possible late tonight into early Monday morning. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern New London County. In New York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 18z 10:1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: It was discussed earlier in the interior thread, but up until the very short term models, most models miss or misalign the northern edge which always ends up another jackpot area. There always seems to be a stronger area of lift right at the area where the strongest precip starts to fade. There's going to be a big band somewhere just north of you into Sussex County imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you happen to have the link for that radar? just right click the image and copy url link paste into your browser https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Still light snow falling. Not sticking in street with all the salt. Temp down to 29.9F. Kind of glad we haven't had any heavier snow yet. I want my temp to go down to 25-28 so it will be powdery like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, Nibor said: For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals. Looks like a nice path to the Benchmark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Finally starting to stick and accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 just need a quick thump to get the ground white and then its showtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow 18z hrrr is doubling down big totals on long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 RRFS (planned to replace the nam/hrr r 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Jt17 said: Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast. . NBM, which uses a combo of Kuchera and the Cobb method has overall ratios of 12-13 for the NJ coast and 15-17 NW of 95, which is part of the reason why the NBM is showing more snow per QPF than the 10:1 snowfall maps. I can definitely see this, since once we overcome the early melting, the snow crystal growth dynamics in the DGZ should be great for low density/high ratio dendrites, especially after about 7 pm with temps below 32F in the whole column. Only question then becomes how much crystal breakage do we see upon descent through a very windy column. Will be interesting to see. Also, measuring the snow accurately will be tough once we get past 9-10 pm and winds really pick up. Might have to use my technique of going to a huge field near me, which limits the "edge effects" one gets in most house properties with fences, trees, roads, etc. This was the only way I could get decent measurements for big storms with high winds like Jan-96, BDB and Jan-2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: There's going to be a big band somewhere just north of you into Sussex County imo Let's hope so! I'll let y'all know. I'm off tomorrow, so let it dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow beginning to stick to cold surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Decided to go to my parents house in Galloway. About 10 miles north of Atlantic city inland about 5 miles from Ocean. Ripping snow here the last hr ground covered an roads starting to cave 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobeTrekker Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 34 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Visibility down and starting to stick in Jersey City a bit. Def earlier than I expected it to stick to surfaces. . Sticking now in Hoboken also, but roads still clear. Temperature down to 32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 From the Storm Prediction Center 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanctyguy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Snow beginning to stick to cold surfaces What's your temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Decided to go to my parents house in Galloway. About 10 miles north of Atlantic city inland about 5 miles from Ocean. Ripping snow here the last hr ground covered an roads starting to cave Good luck have fun. Should be a great spot for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Down to 32.7 per mesonet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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