The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Ridgewoodweather125]

Ridgewood NJ. 36 degrees. Steady light to moderate snow. Not sticking to anything yet


.

[jdt]

I'm still thinking 12-18" for NE Sussex county. Locally higher in spots.

I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going.


.

[EastonSN+]

EURO AI

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks to have held serve

[Mail Man]

I see alot of heavy precipitation in S NJ

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EURO AI

We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind:

A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. 

https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events

[Jt17]

Hrr great and still snowing

Gets to 11.6 at the end it's run. At the same time on 12z run was at 10.2 and finished with 15.5. Good sign.


.

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While we wait for the Board psychiatrist to arrive to address the gloom, the 12z UKMET held serve.

Moreover, the 16z RAP at 21 hours showed:

The 12 hour intervals for the 12z HREF were:

2/22 12z-2/23 0z:

2/23 0z-12z:

2/23 12z-2/24 0z:

There’s going to be a western deform band. Where it is has yet to be determined but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was where the rap shows it. A few other mesos have it. 

[wishcast_hater]

Models shifting east the day of a big storm is an American pastime 

NWS sees something different as even Dutchess County under Blizzard Warning with totals increased to 12-18”.


.

[Dark Star]

5 minutes ago, jdt said:

I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going.


.

What kind of banding?

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We'll know tomorrow how this fared. But something to keep in mind:

A new study led by scientists from the University of Chicago, in collaboration with New York University and the University of California Santa Cruz, is testing the limits of AI-powered weather prediction. In research published May 21 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that neural networks cannot forecast weather events beyond the scope of existing training data—which might leave out events like 200-year floods, unprecedented heat waves or massive hurricanes. 

https://news.uchicago.edu/story/ai-good-weather-forecasting-can-it-predict-freak-weather-events

Thanks Don!

Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs.

 

[TriPol]

NYC has a full snow day tomorrow. No remote learning.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don!

Here is the EURO. Held strength just slipped SE from previous runs.

 

Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches.  Make it make sense

[SACRUS]

 Tool

Band locationRadar → HRRR

Snow rates: HRRR

Band confidence: HREF

Temps / p-typeObs → RAP → NAM 3k

CAD statusObs + RAP

 

[nycsnow]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches.  Make it make sense

Euro just showed the storm 2 days ago lol

[nycsnow]

Down to 1004

[Mail Man]

I don't know about you guys but I think the radar looks solid.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Very light snow falling. Tiny flakes.

Temp slowly falling, 31.4F

Same here (12:40) and temperature has fallen 2 degrees over the last hour.  Currently 31.8.

[EasternLI]

Light snow starting to break out in my area already. I like the look on radar. LFG

[Nibor]

Another thing to watch is the surface low does head east off the coast but eventually makes a move northward kinda like a J as the mid low fully captures and stacks. At the top of the J is where we sorta see the stall or minor loop. Not sure if either will fully happen but something to watch as we nowcast. Some of the mesos show this motion a little better than the globals show. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches.  Make it make sense

Because the short term models are snowier and euro hasn't been locked in at all. There will also be banding. 

[Prue11]

Just now, Mail Man said:

I don't know about you guys but I think the radar looks solid.

Looks great 

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What kind of banding?

why do you ask these questions being a red tag? what are we getting at here? 

[lee59]

Snow picking up here temperature dropping

[MJO812]

Travel ban in NYC from 9pm until noon tomorrow .

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to see Euro locked in for days with 8 to 12 for NYC and then you have upton going for 20 inches.  Make it make sense

Locked up tight. For days. Weeks even. Stop. 

[SACRUS]

 

2PM on the HRR

[jdt]

What kind of banding?

.

[Islandersguy]

NYC has a full snow day tomorrow. No remote learning.

Now I can actually enjoy the storm!


.

[EastonSN+]

Blizzard warnings extended further north.