boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukmet is usually a precursor to the Euro. Should be a good run coming after midnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKMET more tucked than previous runs for sure, beauty at 968 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Someone's getting 3-4"+ rates and thundersnow. The frontogenesis is ridiculous 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 00z UKMET Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24 (expected more) Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, boxingdayblizzard said: UKMET Anyone worried about rain should see how that rain/snow line crashes rapidly even as the low barely moves. This storm is very dynamic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: sorry about ur mom John Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Anyone worried about rain should see how that rain/snow line crashes rapidly even as the low barely moves. This storm is very dynamic! This isn't a rain snow line storm. It's where's the phase and mid level low tracks/how soon do they close off. And so far they're all trending more favorable every run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: sorry about ur mom John So sorry. Truly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Moderate coastal flooding was already expected this keeps up moderate and major coastal impacts are going be happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said: UKMET more tucked than previous runs for sure, beauty at 968 MB I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.5 / 14.1 NAM: 2.3 / 22.3 ICON: 1.8 / 16.7 RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2 GFS: 1.9 / 19.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16 GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5 UKMET: 1.0 / 11 Updated with UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 There is not a single model showing less than 12" for me. Mean average is 20". That's incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thanks Very sorry for your loss my condolences to You and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones Ukie is always wonky for some reason with its precip output In the January storm it kept having that snow hole over nyc 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Someone's getting 3-4"+ rates and thundersnow. The frontogenesis is ridiculous If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Agreed. We here can imagine the possibilities without risk of being ridiculed for all eternity like he would be if he called for 30" and we ended up with 4. Upton's unprecedented High End / Low End disparity of 24-30" at one end and 0.5" at the other is off putting to me. I don't think I've seen even an 8" forecast storm with a 0.5" low end. Whatever is driving that would spook me from putting any huge numbers up too. You call for 15" and you get 25", no one will remember. You call for 25" and get 0.5" , no one will forget, ever.A few important aspects to keep in mind:- There is no human intervention in that dataset. The underlying NWS NDFD forecast is applied to the WPC super ensemble data and does adjust the statistical spectrum a bit, but this is done automatically. - There may be time lagging affecting the low end members of the super ensemble, with various inputs possibly being earlier model cycles. - The above being said, given the extreme top end of the spectrum which we can see with the GFS (and many GEFS members) and NAM, those top end 90th percentile amounts are physically plausible, and again, automatically derived (with a ratio applied I believe). - There is certainly a good deal less spread now than earlier today, but you'll still have some ensemble members that have much lower QPF at this range (and some of these may be from earlier cycles, as noted above). For this reason, the 10th percentile low end amount undeniably seems ridiculous given the extreme top end amounts, but in this case, the 10th percentile is not completely unreasonable. As spread decreases, that will most certainly come up on subsequent runs.Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Allsnow said: Very sorry for your loss my condolences to You and your family Thank you. Hopefully Long Beach gets the jackpot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. So sorry about the loss of your mom. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones Yea it’s not like the lower qpf models are showing huge totals south but less here they aren’t showing 2 inch liquid anywhere which is hard to buy in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 00z GEFS Total QPF Mean 2/22 - 2/23-24 Now 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: So sorry about the loss of your mom. WX/PT Thank you. You have no idea how crazy she thought I was walking to the boardwalk or wherever during any big snowstorm lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: I dont think I am making the euro. I aint 28 anymore...lmao I will be here till 5am 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 That's insane GEFS snow totals. I don't think I have ever seen that on an ensemble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thank you. Hopefully Long Beach gets the jackpot. Damn JM. My condolences to you and your family. Now I'll be rooting hard for a LB jackpot. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.5 / 14.1 NAM: 2.3 / 22.3 ICON: 1.8 / 16.7 RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2 GFS: 1.9 / 19.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16 GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5 UKMET: 1.0 / 11 GEFS: 2.1 / 20.5 Updated with the GEFS mean QPF / snow 10:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 First day I've run out of reactions on here. That's a pretty stupid feature. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now