The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[boxingdayblizzard]

1 in line to NYC as it's shutting down

[winterwx21]

Yeah the tv mets can't act like we do just because the American models are showing insane amounts. They have to be more conservative 2 days before a storm, unless the models were in agreement on the monster amounts. I would probably go a little higher than 8 to 12 right now, but no way would I do something like forecasting 20 to 30. I would go with something like 10 to 16 right now. 

[T5403CG]

I'd have to say not far off the mark with 2/78.  Same general evolution.

I was thinking 12/2009... but it's just not big enough when compared to what this looks to be...

Now I'm onto 78 or 96... 78 wins given the wind... there were drifts ten feet high on Long Island for that one...

The 78 storm did run closer to the coast... introduced some freezing rain... but rarely do you get a monster storm without some mix, no matter how brief, on Long Island... wound up with two feet and 10 foot drifts...

This looks to be shaping into a monster as well... hope when all is said and done it joins 78 and 96 as another classic...

Good luck all...



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[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

That seems like a good call right now honestly 

Have to agree.  Start there and see how things look after 6Z and 12Z tomorrow.  Can always go up....lose credibility if you have to drop too much.

[Jt17]

Big west shift from 12z. Doubled output. 1 more tick from lining up with GFS and NAM


.

[SACRUS]

2/21 00z GGEM

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24



Snow 10:1

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Update GFS / GFS AI AIGFS

do you have the numbers from 18z? sorry to bother u Sacrus

[wthrmn654]

State of emergencies coming tomorrow afternoon no doubt,  schools and businesses could be closed for days... wow old fashion winter storm well overdue

[boxingdayblizzard]

CMC great improvement, 1.3 QPF up to NYC

[MJO812]

Gefs jeez

[boxingdayblizzard]

UKMET not initiated yet

[Stormlover74]

96 started sunday morning as well and friday night forecasts were like 3 to 6

[MJO812]

18 inch mean on gefs for nyc

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

I was thinking 12/2009... but it's just not big enough when compared to what this looks to be...

Now I'm onto 78 or 96... 78 wins given the wind... there were drifts ten feet high on Long Island for that one...

The 78 storm did run closer to the coast... introduced some freezing rain... but rarely do you get a monster storm without some mix, no matter how brief, on Long Island... wound up with two feet and 10 foot drifts...

This looks to be shaping into a monster as well... hope when all is said and done it joins 78 and 96 as another classic...

Good luck all...



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i had 15 foot drifts in 96 in Bloomfield, NJ

[T5403CG]

Yeah this is much better than 12z on the canadian

966 low

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[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

do you have the numbers from 18z? sorry to bother u Sacrus

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2

[Allsnow]

CMC gets the low down to 966 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What do you expect him to forecast at this lead time?  I think it's fair. He should mention there's a chance of a lot more. 

Agreed.  We here can imagine the possibilities without risk of being ridiculed for all eternity like he would be if he called for 30" and we ended up with 4.

Upton's unprecedented High End / Low End disparity of 24-30" at one end and 0.5" at the other is off putting to me.  I don't think I've seen even an 8" forecast storm with a 0.5" low end.  Whatever is driving that would spook me from putting any huge numbers up too.  You call for 15" and you get 25", no one will remember.  You call for 25" and get 0.5" , no one will forget, ever.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

18 inch mean on gefs for nyc

thats crazy 

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said:

1 in line to NYC as it's shutting down

Seems to still be in trending toward gfs mode. 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3
ICON: 1.8 / 16.7
RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2
GFS: 1.9 / 19.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16
GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5

Updated with the GGEM

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

966 low

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god bless your Motorola Edge 2024

[SnowGoose69]

Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds.  It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then 

[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

CMC gets the low down to 966 

 

At 500mb this is our meteo Mona Lisa. Maybe she smiles in a certain way for you, me, Orange County, Riverhead but we’re in for a slamming. Nothing else to say. 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC gets the low down to 966 

 

[Jt17]

Seems to still be in trending toward gfs mode. 

Kept going quite a bit after this too and got a few more inches


.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

96 started sunday morning as well and friday night forecasts were like 3 to 6

By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit.  Remember it well.

[SACRUS]

 

Tea time with the UKMET runing to 30 now

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds.  It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then 

mid levels look good for 12:1 no?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

At 500mb this is our meteo Mona Lisa. Maybe she smiles in a certain way for you, me, Orange County, Riverhead but we’re in for a slamming. Nothing else to say. 

Yup, it’s one of the very few times since 2021 that everything seems to be coming together inside 72 hours